UFC Vegas 85 Best Bets
The UFC is back at the Apex with UFC Vegas 85. The card has a fascinating mix of intriguing bouts and unappealing contests. Thankfully, those intriguing bouts provide some betting value. Let’s discuss the three best bets you can make on UFC Vegas 85.
*All lines are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 3:00 p.m. EST on Friday, Feb. 2.*
Roman Dolidze +142:
The first bet for UFC Vegas 85 is on the main event between Nassourdine Imavov and Roman Dolidze. Imavov is lined as a -170 favorite while Dolidze is a +142 underdog. I am a fan of taking the underdog shot here.
I do think this will be a close. Dolidze and Imavov are both respectable fighters that I typically favor in fights. In my opinion, this line has just got a little wide.
In this matchup, Dolidze has some very serious skills that could give Imavov trouble and lead him to victory. On the feet, Doldize hits hard and lands big hooks in the pocket. I’m not saying he is more technical, but he does have more power.
Dolidze should also have a grappling advantage. Imavov has shown some solid skills on the ground, but Dolidze is at a higher level. Dolidze has legit BJJ that allows him to hit sweeps and seriously threaten submissions. If he is in an advantageous position, he can throw ground and pound too.
Ultimately, the factor that persuaded me to place a bet on Dolidze was Imavov’s ability to get off the fence. In his loss to Phil Hawes, Imavov was held up against the fence for significant periods. Now, he is fighting another physical grappler who could implore a similar game plan. The difference is that Dolidze presents more offensive upside in the clinch in comparison to Hawes.
If I get burned on a bet because Imavov made significant improvements in getting his back off the fence, I’ll live with it. Betting on Imavov just for him to get held up against the fence for five rounds would give me nightmares, so I’ll bet on the underdog in the UFC Vegas 85 main event.
Renato Moincao vs. Drew Dober under 1.5 rounds -130:
The second bet for UFC Vegas 85 is on a total. I like Renato Moicano versus Drew Dober to end in under one and a half rounds. That prop is currently lined at -130 while the over sits at +100.
This projects as a violent fight that goes under at a pretty high clip. Moicano and Dober are both aggressive fights that chase finishes. In this matchup, each fighter has a strength that overlaps the others’ weaknesses. That lends toward a finish nicely.
Moicano has slick submission skills. If a grappling exchange begins, he can quickly get to the back. If that happens, he finishes the rear-naked choke. On the other side, Dober does not have bad takedown defense, but he can struggle once the fight gets to the ground. If these two grapple, Moicano could land a submission.
Dober has serious knockout power. It is not an accident that his last seven wins have come by knockout. If Dober gets on the inside and lands a hook, it is going to do damage. In the past, we have seen fighters land big shots against Moicano when they get inside. That is a dangerous proposition against Dober.
In fairness, Moicano has some pop in his hands and is live for a knockout as well. It is not to the extent of Dober, but it does help the case for this bout going under.
It would take a massive display of heart or an outlier performance for this to go over. That is certainly possible considering the line is only set at a round and a half. Still, the stylistic matchup in the UFC Vegas 85 co-main events creams to bet the under.
Natalia Silva -3.5-point spread -145:
The final bet that stands out for UFC Vegas 85 is Natalia Silva on the -3.5-point spread against Viviane Araujo. That is currently lined at -145. The fight itself has Silva as a -355 favorite while Araujo is a +280 underdog.
For anyone unaware, an MMA point spread is based on the combination of the judges’ scorecards. If there is a finish, the fighter that finishes is the bet that hits.
I don’t typically get too detailed about betting lines, but I think it is appropriate here. I don’t understand how Silva’s moneyline and spread can be priced so differently. If Silva is a -355 favorite, so the books are saying she wins this fight a good percentage of the time. For that to be true, she needs to win dominantly. If she wins dominantly, why is the spread (which reflects a dominant win) only -145? The price point between the two lines is simply too wide.
This bet also makes sense based on how the fight should play out. Silva has looked impressive and has the skills to cleanly win this fight. In the striking, she is far better and distance and has the counter ability that can prevent Araujo from being aggressive. That results in winning rounds and minutes. I also think her cardio is far superior which opens the door for a late-round finish. Those both help the spread hit a good rate.
Overall, this is one of my favorite bets for UFC Vegas 85 because I foresee the outcome happening and believe the bet is mispriced.
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