UFC Vegas 78 Best Bets
UFC Vegas 78 is a 13-fight card that presents a few solid fights to bet on. The card is nothing special, but it does have some noteworthy fights. In preparation for the event, let’s discuss three of the best bets you can make on the card.
*All lines taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 12:00 p.m. on Friday, Aug. 11, 2023.*
Cub Swanson vs. Hakeem Dawodu U2.5 Rounds -110
The first bet for UFC Vegas 78 is for Cub Swanson and Hakeem Dawodu to go under 2.5 rounds. The money line does not present a ton of value as Dawodu sits as a -225 favorite while Swanson is a +185 underdog. Instead, the under has value as it sits at -110.
The appeal of this bet comes alongside the serious questions regarding Swanson’s durability. At this point, Swanson is 39 years old and his durability is quickly fading. That has led to him being finished in his last two losses.
Dawodu can punish the aging veteran. On the feet, he is a solid boxer that hits hard. Additionally, he attacks all three levels which should cause Swanson issues.
If Swanson manages to pull off the upset, it will likely come with a finish. Swanson still has power and could hurt Dawodu on the feet. That is not how I predict the fight will go, but it is another factor that pushes this fight in the direction of the under.
All things considered, Swanson’s durability questions and both fighters finishing upside led me to bet the under. This pick will kick off the UFC Vegas 78 bet slip.
Iasmin Lucindo -3.5 +120
The second bet for UFC Vegas 78 is the Iasmin Lucindo -3.5 point spread at +120. In comparison to the -198 money line, this is a much better way to play Lucindo to beat Polyana Viana.
If you are unfamiliar with betting MMA point spreads, I will provide a quick explanation. The point spread refers to the combination of all of the judges’ scores. For example, if a fighter wins with all three judges scoring the fight 29-28, they would win by three on the spread. If the bout is finished, the spread automatically cashes for the winner.
I like Lucindo a lot in this fight. On the feet, I think she will be able to repeatedly hit Viana with powerful shots. Lucindo is a solid boxer that uses her quick hands to hit her opponent for three rounds. Meanwhile, Viana does not have a great striking defense.
The path for Viana to win this fight is for her to land a submission. That is very possible; however, she chases submission of her back, which does not allow her to win rounds. If this goes to the scorecards, Lucindo should be able to cover the point spread since Viana is not a great round winner. In fact, she does not even have a decision win in her career. Furthermore, Lucindo could get a knockout if she lands enough shots. All in all, Lucindo has two ways to cover the spread.
This bet is a solid way to add a favorite at a reasonable price tag. Yes, it is far more risky, but I think it is worth it in this scenario. If that risky bet pays off, UFC Vegas 78 will look promising.
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Montserrat Ruiz U1.5 Rounds +110
The final bet for UFC Vegas 78 is for Jaqueline Amorim and Montserrat Ruiz to go under 1.5 rounds at +110. For the third bet in a row, I am not a fan of laying chalk on the favorite. In this fight, Amorim sits at -250 while Ruiz is +205. I’ll gladly take a dive into the props again.
This bout is relatively simple to break down. Amorim is a BJJ ace and Ruiz loves the head-and-arm throw. If Ruiz attempts a head-and-arm throw, Amorim will take her back and land a rear-naked choke. Amorim typically works fast and finds submissions early which is why I am comfortable with the under one-and-a-half rounds.
Ruiz has some finishing upside as well. On the feet, she gets aggressive which will be useful if Amorim does not land the early finish.
I am more than willing to make this bet for UFC Vegas 78. If you want a more conservative bet, the under two-and-a-half rounds sit a -175. That is playable. I have seen it closer to -150 on other sportsbooks, too.
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