UFC Vegas 69 Preview and Predictions
There is a legitimate chance that UFC Vegas 69 is the worst UFC fight card of 2023. It is still February, but this card is not great. The main event between Erin Blanchfield and Jessica Andrade is an outstanding fight that will tell us a lot about Blanchfield’s status as a top prospect. Plus, it has serious title implications. Outside of that, the card features a lot of questionable talent. Despite that, the Vendetta Sports Media UFC preview team is here to break down and predict the main card. The team’s 2023 records are listed below.
James: 12-6-2
Garrett: 10-8-2
Jerry: 7-7-1
Anthony: 5-7-1
Jim Miller vs. Alexander Hernandez- Lightweight
James: The UFC Vegas 69 main card will open with a lightweight bout between the UFC’s all-time win leader, Jim Miller, and former top prospect, Alexander Herandez. Hernandez accepted this bout on short notice after Miller’s original opponent, Gabriel Benitez, was forced out with an injury. Additionally, Hernandez is moving back up to lightweight after dropping his featherweight debut to Billy Quarentillo. This pushed Hernandez to a 2-4 record in his last six. On the flip side, Miller has won his last three fights despite being 39 years old.
All of the questions in this fight are centered around Hernandez. First of all, not only is he taking this fight on short notice, but he is making a quick turnaround after being knocked out at featherweight. From a strategic standpoint, Hernandez could fight in several ways. On one hand, he could look to play it safe and wrestle Miller, or he could come out hot with a lot of heavy strikes on the feet. That is a serious question because if he chooses the latter he could gas out and get finished. I think that is what will happen in this fight. While I do not like picking veterans that have been fighting for well over a decade and are nearly 40, I had picking fighters with suspect cardio even more. I will take Miller by second-round knockout.
Garrett: Hernandez via decision
Jerry: Miller via decision
Anthony: Hernandez via decision
William Knight vs. Marcin Prachnio- Light Heavyweight
James: At UFC Vegas 69, light heavyweights William Knight and Marcin Prachnio are set to share the octagon. Let’s be honest, neither of these guys have had great UFC runs. Knight has been the more successful of the pair as he has gone 3-3 in the promotion. The issue is that he has bounced between light heavyweight and heavyweight while losing to suspect competition. Meanwhile, Prachnio has gone 2-4 in the promotion. If you are curious about his strength of schedule, he managed to beat Khalil Roundtree, but he lost to Sam Alvey- wrap your head around that.
In this bout, the short and stocky Knight will need to crash the distance to get inside. Knight moves forward with powerful strikes and looping hooks. When he lands one of those shots, he has the power to put his opponent’s lights out. Meanwhile, Prachnio’s best offensive tools are his kicks. He throws great leg kicks and mixes to the head and body well. His path to success against Knight will be to stay on the outside and land a lot of kicks. In terms of grappling, Knight will have the advantage. In this fight, he could land a couple of takedowns to help him pull ahead. Overall, I think is the more powerful and more well-rounded fighter. I will take Knight to win by second-round knockout.
Garrett: Knight via TKO
Jerry: Prachnio via decision
Anthony: Knight via KO
Josh Parisian vs. Jamal Pogues- Heavyweight
James: This is the UFC Vegas 69 version of the stereotypical below-average heavyweight fight that finds its way to the main card. At UFC 284, it was Justin Tafa vs. Parker Porter; this week it is Josh Parisian vs. Jamal Pogues. Parisian is an outstanding example of a below-average UFC heavyweight. In the promotion, he has gone 2-2. That may not be a bad record, but he has fought terrible competition. In fairness to Pogues, he may end up being a solid heavyweight. After winning a contract on Dana White’s Contender’s Series, he is making his UFC debut. If Pogues wants to prove he can make an impact in the UFC, beating Parisian is a must.
Pogues has several tools that should lead to success in the UFC. On the feet, he has a solid jab and throws at a high volume. Against a lot of heavyweights, he can use that jab to push the pace and wear on his opponents. Plus, he showed solid wrestling on the regional scene. The issue is he was fighting at light heavyweight. We will have to wait and see if he can utilize that skill against heavyweights. Meanwhile, Parisian is a tough heavyweight with good cardio. On the feet, he has good striking, but he is nothing to write home about. The biggest negative in his game is his defensive grappling. In this fight, I think Pogues can out-land Parisian on the feet while potentially working in takedowns. I will take Pogues by decision.
Garrett: Pogues via TKO
Jerry: Pogues via decision
Anthony: Pogues via KO
Jordan Wright vs. Zac Pauga- Light Heavyweight
James: The UFC Vegas 69 co-main event between Jordan Wright and Zac Pauga is not your typical co-main event. It is an average prelim fight that has worked its way up to the co-main event slot. Who does not love that? This bout is interesting though. Pauga is making his way back down to light heavyweight after moving up to heavyweight to compete on “The Ultimate Fighter Season Season 30”. At the same time, Wright is moving up from middleweight to light heavyweight.
I am interested to see how Pauga looks at light heavyweight after showing some solid skills at heavyweight. Pauga is very well-rounded with solid wrestling and basic, but effective, striking. On the flip side, Wright is all gas no breaks. When he is able to land he can finish fights. The issue is that his poor striking defense usually ends up with him being finished before he can land that fight-ending shot. I think the same thing happens in this fight. I will take Pauga by first-round knockout.
Garrett: Pauga via decision
Jerry: Pauga via KO/TKO
Anthony: Pauga via KO
Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield- Women’s Flyweight
James: Jessica Andrade saved the UFC Vegas 69 main event as she stepped in on short notice to fight Erin Blanchfeild after Taila Santos was forced out due to injury. Despite the change, Blanchfield will still be receiving the step-up in competition that was anticipated. At just 23, Blanchfield has gone 10-1 in MMA and 4-0 in the UFC to cement herself as one of the UFC’s top prospects. Andrade, a former UFC champion, will be her toughest opponent to date. Andrade has bounced between divisions while picking up impressive wins for several years now. Overall, she has accrued a 15-7 UFC record with a majority of her losses coming against the best fighters in the world.
The stakes will be high in this bout as title implications are on the line. At the least, Blanchfield would be a win away from a title shot if she beats Andrade. Meanwhile, Andrade has rattled off three consecutive wins since her loss to women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko. A fourth win could put her name back into title talks.
In this bout, Blanchfield is tasked with proving that she can out-grapple a fighter of Andrade’s caliber. If she cannot, she will be forced to deal with Andrade’s pressure and powerful striking. That would not bode well for Blanchfield because her striking skills are not quite up to par with her grappling. Her kicks are not bad, but she lacks in her overall standup. Although, I do not think that will be an issue. I think Blanchfield will control this fight on the ground despite Andrade’s grappling pedigree. Thus far into her career, Blanchfiled has proven that she can lean on her grappling to land impressive wins. I do not think that stops in this one. I will take Blanchfield by third-round submission.
Garrett: Blanchfield via decision
Jerry: Andrade via KO/TKO
Anthony: Andrade via decision
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