UFC Vegas 69 Best Bets
It is no secret that UFC Vegas 69 is not a great fight card. That issue is even more evident when you are looking to place bets on the card. If there is any week that you want to avoid betting on the UFC, it is this week, but if you are brave enough to place a couple of bets, I am here with three of the best wagers you can make for UFC Vegas 69.
*All lines are taken from BetMGM and are accurate as of 2:00 p.m. ET on Friday, Feb. 17.*
Erin Blanchfield +115
The main event of UFC Vegas 69 features a women’s flyweight bout between elite prospect Erin Blanchfield and former UFC champion Jessica Andrade. The books have Blanchfield lined as a slight underdog at +115 while Andrade sits at -140. The pick is Blanchfield in this one.
This fight will best a massive test for Blanchfield. Simply put, she has not fought anyone of Andrade’s caliber, and it is reasonable to question whether this is too much too soon. That does not mean she cannot win, though.
Blanchfield is an elite grappler that has been able to dominate her opponents. As for most dominant grapplers, her stand-up is lacking. If anyone can expose that weakness it would be Andrade. Although, I do not think Blanchfield will give her that opportunity.
I think Blanchfield will be able to get this fight to the ground, wear on Andrade, and eventually control the fight. Not to mention, she will have a size advantage as well. At the end of the day, if you are getting Blanchfield at plus money you have to seriously consider betting on her. Against Andrade, she has a clear and realistic path to victory which makes this bet even better.
William Knight -120
At UFC Vegas 69, William Knight will fight Marcin Prachnio. Once again, we have a closely lined bout as William Knight is a -120 favorite while Prachnio sits as a +100 underdog. This time around, I am on the favorite.
This fight should be close on the feet. Knight will look to pressure with powerful strikes that can carry knockout power while Prachnio will look to stay on the outside and land kicks. Whichever fighter is able to execute that game plan will be the one that is more successful.
I am more confident that Knight will come out on top simply because he has been able to follow that game plan more often. Plus, he is the better grappler out of the pair and is more likely to find success with a backup plan. Those two details are enough to make me bet on Knight.
Jim Miller vs. Alexander Hernandez U1.5 +110
In the UFC Vegas 69 main card opener, Jim Miller will fight Alexander Hernandez. The fight currently has Hernandez lined as a -250 favorite while Miller is a +190 underdog. I like Miller in this fight, but I am not taking that bet. Instead, I am taking the under one-and-a-half rounds at +110.
I can see the under hitting in this fight for several reasons. First of all, Hernandez has suspect cardio. If he comes out hot, it is very likely he fades as Miller finds a finish. At the same time, he could come out hot and find a quick finish.
The worst-case scenario for the under is that Hernandez looks to outwrestle Miller. Even in that scenario, Miller has great submissions off his back which could lead to a finish. With that many ways to find a finish, I will take the under one-and-a-half rounds at plus money.
Depending on your book or gambling philosophies, do not be afraid to explore other ways to hit the under in this fight. The under two-and-a-half rounds is far less of a sweat, but you would lose value as it is lined at -175. If your book offers a bet on the fight not to start the third round, that may be a crossroads of value and likelihood.
At the end of the day, I like this fight to finish, but do not be afraid to adjust this bet depending on what your book is offering you.
***
