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UFC Vegas 59

(Joe Camporeale/USA Today Sports)

UFC Vegas 59 Best Bets

UFC Vegas 59
(Joe Camporeale/USA Today Sports)

UFC Vegas 59 Best Bets

UFC Vegas 59 is an interesting card from a betting perspective. The large majority of the card is filled with favorites that are currently sitting between -200 and -300. On the flip side, that means there are a lot of underdogs at a good value. However, it is hard to make a case that those fighters will get a win on Saturday. That is a tough scenario for betting. Instead, let’s hunt for value elsewhere. Here are three solid bets for UFC Vegas 59.

Vicente Luque vs Geoff Neal To Go The Distance +126

The first play is Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal to go to a decision. I fully expect this to be a closely contested bout on the feet. While both fighters can finish their opponent, I do not think we see a finish as both fighters are incredibly durable. Plus, Neal can have a lower output at times. That will help the decision prop hit. While I think Luque wins this fight, I do not think his current line of -175 is good value. Realistically, I think Luque wins this fight via decision. That currently sits at +260, but I would rather play it safe and take the fight to go to a decision at +126. Neal could surprise people here and edge out a close decision. Therefore, the fight to go the distance is the play. At plus money, is it good value, too.

Ariane Lipski By Decision +140

Ariane Lipski will fight Priscila Cachoeira to open the main card of UFC Vegas 59. Lipski and Cachoeira are both solid strikers, but they strike very differently. Lipski has great Muay Thai and is very technical. Cachoeira mainly relies on her power. With these styles, Lipski will throw at a higher volume. This is a great recipe for a Lipski decision win. She should be able to land at a higher volume and avoid the power shots coming her way. As far as winning by finish, Lipski does not have a single finish in the UFC. Taking Lipski at +140 to win by decision is a great way of getting a -175 favorite to a more reasonable number while still having a good chance to hit the bet.

Brogan Walker +102

UFC Vegas 59 will have two finale fights from The Ultimate Fighter Season 30. The first will be Brogan Walker vs Juliana Miller in the straw weight division. This will be the only underdog included in this post. First off, I understand why Miller is the favorite. She is a great grappler and is decent on the feet. In all honesty, I think Miller will have a better and longer UFC career than Walker. However, I think Walker wins this bout. Most importantly, she is way more experienced. Walker has nine professional fights, compared to Miller’s three. That should help Walker in this high-leverage situation. In the fight itself, Walker has a tremendous jab that she should be able to utilize. Meanwhile, Miller throws jabs and straights, but they are far less technical. Walker should take advantage of those by countering. Overall, I think this fight will be close, but I think Walker should be the favorite. Therefore, taking her to win at +102 is a must. However, if the line flips, do not be afraid to bet on Miller as the underdog. Essentially, you want to be on the value side in this fight. I would rather it be with Walker, but I would not complain about betting Miller as an underdog.

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