UFC Vegas 101 Best Bets

UFC Vegas 101 Best Bets

The UFC is back with its first fight card of the new year. Let’s celebrate with some bets. Thankfully, UFC Vegas 101 has several underdogs that are worth betting on. Here are three of the best bets you can make for UFC Vegas 101.

*All lines are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 3:30 p.m. EST on Jan. 10, 2024.*

Mackenzie Dern +160

The first bet for UFC Vegas 101 comes in the main event between Amanda Ribas and Mackenzie Dern. The books have Ribas lined as a -192 favorite while Dern is a +160 underdog. I am siding with the underdog.

I understand the logic behind making Ribas the favorite. This is a rematch and she was the fighter who had her hand raised in that bout. That said, I think Dern is a vastly different fighter compared to their 2019 bout. I would not even bother to claim she is better. Rather, she will approach the fight differently. Dern has become a much better striker. In the first bout, Ribas sat back and countered Dern’s sloppy striking. Now, Dern is much more calculated and her striking is far sharper. That should instantly change this fight.

I am also not a fan of Ribas’ durability. If Dern can land shots in the pocket, she can hurt Ribas. That could create openings for more strikes or allow her to begin to grapple. It is also worth noting that Dern has quality cardio and will throw big punches for all five rounds.

The potential striking success is present alongside Dern’s high-level submission skills. It is hard to trust Dern to be victorious when she is forced to rely on her BJJ skills. Her game is not well-rounded enough for that. With that being said, her submission skills are a great benefit in fights where she can find success on the feet. This fight should be one of those instances.

At +160, Dern is a solid bet for UFC Vegas 101. It is easy to see a path to victory for the underdog.

Chris Curtis +185

The second bet of the night continues the trend of underdog bets. I will side with Chris Curtis in his middleweight matchup against Roman Kopylov. Curtis, the underdog, is lined at +185 while Kopylov, the favorite, sits at -225.

This is another fight where the pre-fight line can be rationalized. In theory, Kopylov can present Curtis with some stylistic issues. Curtis can struggle with fighters who can pick and poke with ranged weapons while staying out of the pocket. That is something Kopylov can accomplish. I do not think it will be that easy, however.

The fighters who have been able to implore the aforementioned game plan against Curtis are highly talented. That includes Jack Hermansson and Nassourdine Imavov. Kopylov has simply not done enough to prove he is on that level. Furthermore, Kopylov has not shown the cardio required to make that game plan work. A fighter needs a respectable gas tank to stick and move for three rounds while maintaining adequate movement skills. Kopylov may slow down after a round.

If Curtis can get this fight into boxing range, he will be able to land massive punches. That includes combinations of the head and body. Those body shots will only further hurt Kopylov’s gas tank.

In the early moments of this fight, Kopylov should look like a -225 favorite. That will slowly change, however. I expect this fight to get closer and closer as the fight gets deeper. In the third round, it should become a close fight where Curtis is landing damaging strikes. At +185, I’ll bet that he dominates the late stages of the fight and gets his hand raised. That makes Curtis a great bet for UFC Vegas 101.

Christian Rodriguez +215

The final bet for UFC Vegas 101 is the biggest underdog play thus far. I will take Christian Rodriguez to beat Austin Bashi. Rodriguez is a sizeable +215 underdog while Bashi sits at -265.

This betting line is the strangest of the three we have discussed. I could at least rationalize why a certain line is being offered. I really cannot do that in this place. These odds scream value on Rodriguez.

Bashi is a 23-year-old prospect who is making his UFC debut. On Dana White’s Contender Series, he looked impressive. I think he has a lot of long-term potential. The issue is that he is fighting Rodriguez. This is not a fight against an opponent who is struggling to hold a UFC roster spot. Rodriguez is legitimately good. Plus, he has defeated three undefeated prospects in the UFC. This is a spot that he historically thrives in.

My biggest issue with Rodriguez is that he has failed to consistently make the bantamweight limit and has been forced to move up to featherweight. The catch is that Bashi is a small featherweight. I expect the pair to be close in size.

In terms of skills, Bashi is a solid grappler, but Rodriguez is a good defensive grappler. In striking exchanges, Rodriguez will be able to sit down on counters while also landing knees and elbows. Ultimately, I expect Rodriguez to defend grappling exchanges while landing powerful shots while striking.

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