UFC St. Louis Best Bets
UFC St. Louis is a well-matched fight card with a lot of interesting fights. As a result, most of the fights are closely lined bouts. That gives us quite a few chances to find solid betting opportunities. Here are three of the best bets available for UFC St. Louis.
*All odds are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 1:00 p.m. on Friday, May 10.*
Derrick Lewis -162
The UFC St. Louis main event features a heavyweight bout between Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento. Lewis is the betting favorite with a -162 price while Nascimento is a +136 underdog. I am siding with Lewis in this matchup.
Let’s get the negatives out of the way first. I am not enthused with betting on a 39-year-old who is 1-4 in his last five fights. At the same time, Nascimento is taking a massive step up in competition which is a concern. Nascimento has been fighting below-average fighters. Lewis may not be elite, but he deserves a ranking next to his name.
I have a hard time seeing Nascimento get his offensive attack working without putting himself in danger. Lewis will have plenty of opportunities to land a knockout shot if Nascimento attempts to unload with volume. Similarly, closing the distance to attempt takedowns will be difficult. On top of that, Nascimento is not an elite grappler.
I have a hard time seeing Nascimento getting his offense going. I think it is much more likely that Lewis will land a knockout shot. This bet does come with risk because Lewis is not the most trustworthy fighter at this stage of his career. Still, I think Lewis is one of the best bets on the board at UFC St. Louis.
Joaquin Buckley -135
The second bet that stands out for UFC St. Louis is for Joaquin Buckley to beat Nursulton Ruziboev. The is closely lined as Buckley sits as a -135 favorite while Ruziboev is a +114 underdog.
I have a lot of unanswered questions regarding Ruziboev’s skill set. In two UFC fights, he has yet to make it out of the first round. I am curious how Ruziboev will look if he does not get a first-round finish. Additionally, his grappling is questionable. On the regional scene, he showed submission skills, but I am not sold on his overall grappling ability. If that wasn’t enough, Ruziboev is cutting a ton of weight to make the welterweight weight limit.
On the other hand, I know what I am getting from Buckley. In the UFC, he has shown powerful boxing and athleticism while consistently improving. In his UFC tenure, his wrestling has slowly improved and has become a useful tool. Buckley has also shown the cardio for three rounds.
I simply have a ton of questions about Ruziboev. It is always possible that he impressively answers all of those questions. I have to bet against him until that happens, however. At -135, we are getting a fair price for an established fighter. That makes Buckley one of the best bets for UFC St. Louis.
Chase Hooper +120
The final bet that I like for UFC St. Louis is Chase Hooper to beat Viacheslav Borshchev. Hooper is a +120 underdog while Borshchev is a -142 favorite.
This fight is pretty simple. Hooper is a BJJ specialist who struggles in striking exchanges. Borshchev is a striker who struggles against grapplers. I am siding with the grappler.
I like a lot of what Hooper has done recently. The move up to lightweight was smart. On top of that, he consistently improves. I am not suggesting he has patched every hole in his skill set. Still, he has shown consistent improvement. At 24, he likely continues to develop.
I expect Hooper to attempt a lot of takedowns throughout this fight. I do not think he has great takedowns. At the same time, Borshchev does not have great takedown defense. Eventually, I think Hooper lands a takedown which swings the fight in his favor. On the ground, Hooper has legit submissions and does damage. That should allow him to win rounds and potentially finish the fight.
This is the type of fight that I prefer to bet the underdog and the grappler. Hooper is both of those things. That makes him one of the best bets for UFC St. Louis.
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