UFC 302 Best Bets

UFC 302 Best Bets

UFC 302 is a decent fight card with a few spots that could present solid betting opportunities. Here are three of the best bets you can make on the card.

*All lines are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 3 p.m. on May 30.*

Islam Makhachev via submission -135

The first bet for UFC 302 is for Islam Makhacehv to win by submission at -135. The money line has Makhachev as a -600 favorite while Dustin Poirier is a +440 underdog. In my opinion, the submission line is the best way to get action down on Makhachev.

This bet is as square as it gets. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad bet, however. The gap in grappling skills between Makhachev and Poirier is massive. Makhachev lands takedowns, efficiently gets to quality positions, and threatens submissions.

It is not a secret that Poirier struggles against elite grapplers. In undisputed title fights, he is 0-2 and was submitted in both bouts. In his most recent win, Benoit Saint-Denis got to dominant positions on several occasions.

It is not a secret that Poirier will be jumping for guillotines at UFC 302. Despite having a solid guillotine, it is a tall task asking him to land one against Makhachev. If he cannot, he will be routinely putting himself in poor positions and Makhachev will be able to take advantage of that.

Lastly, I expect Makhachev to proactively grapple. The fact this is a southpaw versus southpaw matchup will hinder his kicking ability and should persuade him to look for takedowns.

At -135, Makhachev to land a submission is one of my favorite bets for UFC 302.

Paulo Costa +215

The second bet that stands out on UFC 302 is for Paulo Costa to beat Sean Strickland. Costa is a sizeable +215 underdog while Strickland is a -265 favorite. I would much rather play the underdog at those prizes.

I prefer to side with Costa because Strickland tends to get into close fights and the stylistic matchup is solid.

I will rarely oppose betting against Strickland when you are getting north of +200 on the betting line. Strickland tends to get in close fights. That will always favor the underdog whether it’s Strickland or his opponent.

Furthermore, Costa has greatly struggled against technical fighters with good movement and footwork. It allows his opponents to get in and out of range without eating big shots. That is not the case in this matchup. Strickland’s movement is not elite and it should allow Costa to get in range to let his boxing combinations rip. This should allow him to land big shots. On top of that, Costa has more diverse boxing and a bigger arsenal of kicks.

I would not consider this bet a home run. I have concerns about Costa falling apart in the late rounds. That said, he should land big strikes and he has serious power. At +215, that makes him an appealing bet for UFC 302.

Kevin Holland ITD -115

The final bet for UFC 302 is for Kevin Holland to finish Michal Oleksiejczuk. Holland is a sizeable favorite with a -290 price tag while Oleksiejczuk sits at +235. The way to play this fight is to take Holland to get the finish.

This is a great matchup for Holland. The fan-favorite tends to struggle with elite strikers and big wrestlers. Oleksiejczuk does not fall into either category.

Oleksiejczuk is a decent boxer and he will pressure Holland. That should create a lot of striking exchanges. I like that for Holland because he will be much longer and has more power. On top of that, Holland is a legit black belt with good submissions and Oleksiejczuk is one of the worst grapplers in the division. This is a rare matchup where Holland could out-grapple his opponent.

This all comes together to provide the -290 favorite finish upside in striking and grappling exchanges. That immediately pushes me toward Holland inside the distance. I will the price was better, but it is still a great bet for UFC 302.

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