UFC 295 Best Bets
UFC 295 is a great fight card. It is stacked with close and competitive fights that should entertain fans. That also means the card has a lot of closely lined fights that provide betting value. Here are three of the best bets you can make on UFC 295.
*All lines are taken from Draft Kings and are accurate as of 3:30 p.m. on Thursday, Nov. 9. *
Mackenzie Dern ITD +100
At UFC 295, Mackenzie Dern will fight Jessica Andrade. Dern is a sizeable -198 favorite while Andrade is a +164 underdog. I really like Dern in this fight. I even bet her at the chalk price, but I will also be playing her to find a finish at +100.
I do not want to make this more complicated than it needs to be. Dern is on the rise while Andrade is fading. In her last bout, Dern had massive striking improvements paired with her lethal BJJ. On the other hand, Andrade has finished in three consecutive losses.
In this fight, Andrade and Dern are more than capable of landing big shots that hurt each other. Although Dern has a massive grappling upside, if this fight gets to the ground, Dern will be steps ahead of Andrade.
I am expecting Dern and Andrade to both be aggressive. I think that gives Dern opportunities to find a finish. At ‘dog money, I will gladly bet Dern to finish Andrade at UFC 295.
Nazim Sadykhov -122
At UFC 295, Nazim Sadykhov will fight Viacheslav Borshchev. Sadykhov is currently lined as a -122 favorite while Borshchev is a +102 underdog. I like playing the short favorite in this spot.
The reasoning for this bet is fairly simple. Borschev is an outstanding striker, but he is lacking in the grappling department. That has been the biggest issue throughout his UFC career.
Sadykhov is a fairly well-rounded fighter. In this fight, he should be able to use his wrestling to control Borshchev and neutralize his striking. On the feet, he should be able to stay safe while looking for the takedown.
All things considered, I am more than willing to bet on a capable grappler against a fighter with grappling flaws. That makes this one of my favorite bets on UFC 295.
Kyung Ho Kang +114
Kyung Ho Kang will fight John Castaneda UFC 295. Kang currently sits as a +114 underdog while John Castaneda is a -135 favorite. In this fight, I am taking the underdog.
Kang is an underrated bantamweight. That is because he fights too infrequently. For the first time since 2019, he is fighting for a second time in a year.
I am willing to bet on Kang at an underdog price because he is a pretty clean fighter. If you bet on him, you do not have to worry about him making crucial mistakes. Similarly, he does not have any massive flaws. In this bout, I think he can use his length, straight shots and distance management to out-strike Castaneda for three rounds. If anyone grapples, I trust that Kang can hold his own in those scenarios.
Castaneda could win this fight. If he can consistently get on the inside, he may be able to do enough damage to get the job done; however, that path to victory is not clear enough to make him the favorite. At UFC 295, I would much rather bet on Kang at an underdog price.
Kevin Borjas +185
The final bet that I have for UFC 295 is for Kevin Borjas to beat Joshua Van. Borjas sits as a +185 underdog while Van is a -225 favorite.
This will be Borjas UFC debut. On Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS), he earned a contract with an impressive win over Victor Dias. In my DWCS recap, I labeled Borjas as a raw fighter with impressive striking; I was concerned that he would struggle against grapplers at the UFC level, however.
As Borjas makes his debut, he sits at +185. That would be reasonable if he was fighting a grappler, but Van is a striker. Van only has one UFC fight to his name, looking impressive in his debut. In my opinion, he is a solid striker as well.
I am expecting this matchup to be a war between two young promising strikers. If this ends up being that type of fight, it will be close and tough to call. That makes the +185 line on Borjas valuable.
To be clear, I am not excited to bet against Van. I just think he is too big of a favorite. That makes a bet on Borjas a solid value bet for UFC 295.
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