UFC 289 Best Bets
UFC 289 may not be the best pay-per-view of all time, but it has some entertaining fights. From a betting perspective, it has some great betting opportunities. That gives us a chance to get a few bets down. Here are three of the best bets you can make for UFC 289.
(*All lines are taken from BetMGM and are accurate as of 12 p.m. ET on Friday, June 9, 2023.*)
Irene Aldana +260
In the main event of UFC 289, Amanda Nunes will attempt to defend the UFC women’s bantamweight title against Irene Aldana. Nunes is currently getting respect from the books as a -350 favorite. I like Aldana, the underdog, at a +260.
In terms of skill, Aldana has a lot of tools that can present Nunes with issues. On the feet, she is a highly technical boxer that throws clean strikes; the speed and power in her hands are notable, as well. In contrast, Nunes’ striking is dependent on her power, but I have a lot of concerns regarding some defensive flaws in Nunes’ striking as well.
Nunes tends to get over-aggressive which leads to more issues. In this fight, I think Aldana will be able to win a lot of the striking exchanges with technical boxing and, more specifically, straight punches.
The problem with Aldana is that she is not a great defensive grappler. In the past, she has struggled to defend takedowns. If Nunes grapples for a large portion of this fight, she can find a victory. There are some reasons for optimism though. Most importantly, Aldana has shown developments in her grappling and displayed some submission skills from the bottom. If she can utilize those attacks, she may provide enough of a threat to get back to her feet.
I am playing Aldana because I think she will have a of success on her feet. I am not saying this is a perfect play, as Nunes does have a grappling upside, but I am not expecting any underdog at this pricetag to be free of red flags. If that were the case, they would be the favorite. Nunes’ consistent retirement discussion adds a small narrative that may come into play as well. At UFC 289, I am getting a bet down for Aldana.
Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Eryk Anders FDNGTD +100
At UFC 289, Marc-Andre Barriault is set to fight Eryk Anders. Barriault is lined as a -135 favorite while Anders is a +115 underdog. I am not playing a fighter here; instead, I am playing that the fight does not go the distance at +100.
I think that each fighter has a legitimate chance to find a finish in this fight. On Anders’ side, he has a lot of power in his striking. Additionally, I do not think that Barriault is unfinishable. Over the full course of his career, he has only lost two fights by finish, but those have come in his two more recent losses. If Anders is able to land solid hooks early, he should be able to find a finish.
If Anders is unable to finish Barriault early, it opens the door for Barriault to find a late finish. Barriault has good cardio and loves to pressure fighters with a ton of clinch work. That could lead to a finishing win for Barriault.
I do not have a strong conviction in either direction. If you forced me to pick a side, I would take Barriult. Either way, I think we see a finish at a good rate. At UFC 289, I will bet that the fight does not go the distance at +100.
Chris Curtis +135
On the prelims of UFC 289, Chris Curtis will fight Nassourdine Imavov. Curtis is sitting as the underdog at +135 while Imavov is a -160 favorite. Once again, I am siding with the dog.
First and foremost, this fight will take place on the feet. It is very uncommon for Curtis or Imavov to attempt takedowns, and I doubt we see it here. In the striking realm, Curtis is a great boxer. Offensively, he has great counterpunching and works the body well while Imavov is a sniper that excels with long-range weapons from the outside.
On the surface, this seems like a matchup that Curtis would struggle with. In the past, we have seen fighters use their length to stay on the outside and pick away at Curtis from a distance. The difference in this fight is that Imavov does not have great kicks. That is not to say they are nonexistent. Instead, he usually throws a handful each round and they are used to damage the body rather than manage the distance.
In this fight, I think the lack of kicks will make it easier for Curtis to close the distance and land shots in the pocket. I also trust Curtis’ cardio, durabilit, and power more than Imavov’s.
Stylistically, I think this is a good chance for Curtis to get inside and land solid strikes, but I also think he has better physical attributes. At UFC 289, I am more than willing to take a swing on him at any underdog pricetag.
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