UFC 286 Preview and Predictions
The trilogy fight between Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman is finally here. At UFC 286, Edwards will look to prove that his head kick knockout at UFC 278 was not a fluke while Usman aims to regain the welterweight title. The event is set to take place in London, England at The 02 Arena which only makes the fight more meaningful for the Englishmen Edwards. If that is not enough, the co-main features a bout between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev which has fight-of-the-year potential all over it. Vendetta Sports Media is here to preview the UFC 286 main card and predict each fight. You can find our 2023 records below.
James: 22-15-2
Garrett: 24-13-2
Jerry: 11-15-1
Anthony: 15-13-1
No. 4 Marvin Vettori vs. No. 9 Roman Dolidze- Middleweight
James: The UFC 286 main card is set to open with a terrific middleweight bout between Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze. At 6-1 in the UFC, Dolidze has shown to be a finisher with a pretty high upside. That was highlighted at UFC Orlando against Jack Hermansson where he used a calf slicer to earn a ground-and-ground victory. Meanwhile, Vettori is a tough and balanced fighter that has worked his way to a promotional record of 8-4-1. This fight will be a massive step up in competition for Dolidze. If he can get a win, he will cement himself as one of the top middleweights in the UFC.
This fight will come down to Vettori’s durability, toughness, and fundamentals against Dolidze’s power and uniqueness. Vettori can fight from a distance with straight punches and solid kicks. On the ground, he can use his solid wrestling to land takedowns and rack up control time. Plus, he has never been finished in his career. If you put all those tools together, Vettori becomes a very tough fighter to beat. Dolidze is nearly the complete opposite. He has outside power and strikes from unique angles to land strikes. Those strikes come mostly in the form of punches, but he can mix in other weapons too. On the ground, Dolidze is a crafty BJJ practitioner that looks to deal damage with submission attempts.
As far as a prediction goes, I don’t want to pick against either of these fighters. Although, in this one, I think Dolidze’s uniqueness will help him find a finish before the clock runs out. I will take Dolidze to win via third-round knockout.
Garrett: UFC 286 begins with a middleweight bout that is almost guaranteed to bring the action from the opening bell. Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze have had different paths in the UFC, as Vettori has had an up-and-down career whereas Dolidze is soaring with a 6-1 record. Vettori is sure to be the toughest fighter Dolidze has fought during his time in the UFC, but a win sets him up for a huge next fight. Vettori has a nice combination of pure striking with good to very good wrestling. When he is on his A game, he can be one of the toughest outs on the roster. However, Dolidze is such an orthodox fighter that game planning for him is difficult. He has big-time power that he can unleash at any given notice. But don’t let the power fool you, he is a wizard on the ground as well. I believe that Dolidze is a more well-rounded fighter, so I will ride with him. My instinct was this fight ends via finish, but Vettori has never been finished, and I can’t bet that changing here. Dolidze via decision.
Jerry: Vettori via decision
Anthony: Dolidze via decision
No. 8 Jennifer Maia vs. No. 12 Casey O’Neill- Women’s Flyweight
James: The second fight of the UFC 286 main card features another fighter taking a big step up in competition as Casey O’Neill, one of the best prospects in the division, takes on UFC veteran Jenifer Maia. O’Neill has made a splash during her short UFC tenure as she has gone 4-0 with three finishes. At just 25 years old, the future seems bright for O’Neill. On the flip side, Maia is a 10-fight UFC veteran with a 5-5 record. In fairness, those five losses have all come against stiff competition. This fight will determine if O’Neill is truly an elite fighter in the division or if she needs to make improvements before challenging the division’s elite.
Thus far into her career O’Neill has proven to be a great wrestler. She can land single and double-leg takedowns and control her opponent while threatening with ground-and-pound and submissions. At the same time, she has shown growth in her striking. This fight is an interesting test for O’Neill though. Maia is one of the better boxers in the division and has solid BJJ on the ground. On the feet, Maia will be able to test O’Neill’s striking while threatening submissions in grappling exchanges.
Despite the challenges that Maia will present, I like O’Neill in this one. I think she will be able to land takedowns while avoiding the front chokes of Maia. From there she either controls position on the ground or threatens with offense. I will take O’Neill by decision.
Garrett: I LOVE me some Casey O’Neill. One of the best prospects on the UFC roster, she will be looking for a signature win over a vet in Jennifer Maia. I will be honest here, I don’t quite get how Maia is on the roster. With a .500 record in ten fights, she has done nothing to establish herself as a contender. I will keep this one short. The wrestling of O’Neill will be too much to answer for. Give me O’Neill via submission.
Jerry: O’Neill via decision
Anthony: Maia via decision
Gunnar Nelson vs. Bryan Barberena- Welterweight
James: UFC veterans Gunnar Nelson and Bryan Barberena are set to share the octagon at UFC 286. Nelson has been in the promotion since 2012 and has compiled a 9–5 record in the UFC. Meanwhile, Barberena joined the promotion in 2014 and has gone 9-7. At this point in their careers, it is unlikely that either of these guys works their way into the rankings, but that doesn’t mean they can not put on a show at UFC 286.
In this fight, Nelson will have a large advantage on the ground. That is nothing new though as seven of his UFC wins have come via submission. That does not look promising for Barberena as he is coming off a submission loss to Rafael dos Anjos. If he can keep it standing, he should be able to get into the pocket and outbox Nelson. I do not think that is how this goes though. I will take Nelson via submission.
Garrett: Another straightforward pick here. I will always lean toward wrestling, and Gunnar Nelson has some of the best in the UFC. I actually quite like Bryan Barberena but I don’t believe he stands a chance here. His ONLY chance is if he lands a huge shot, similar to Nelson’s fight with Santiago Ponzinibbo (I probably spelled that wrong) where he was finished in just over 90 seconds. I’ll take Nelson via submission.
Jerry: Nelson via submission
Anthony: Nelson via submission
No. 3 Justin Gaethje vs. No. 6 Rafael Fiziev- Lightweight
James: The co-main event of UFC 286 has fight-of-the-year potential as Justin Gaethje takes on Rafael Fiziev. Gaethje is one of the most entertaining fighters in the history of MMA. ‘The Highlight’ has been involved in some of the greatest fights of this generation. Do not be surprised if this fight against Fiziev joins that same category. While Fiziev does not have the resume of Gaethje, he has used his technical striking to rack up a 6-1 UFC record and climb up the lightweight rankings. In this fight, Fiziev will look to shake up the lightweight rankings and show that the division’s young talent is ready to take over.
This fight should see Gaethje and Fiziev exchange vicious strikes until the clock runs out or someone is knocked out. Gaethje will look to do this with massive power punches while Fiziev will mix kicks to the head and body more frequently. Gaethje still has outstanding leg kicks that could play a factor though.
In my opinion, the difference will be the defense and speed of Fiziev. I think he will be able to avoid more strikes than Gaethje while his speed will help him land more efficiently in exchange. Still, Gaethje could land a knockout shot and he could pull ahead in the later rounds if Fiziev gets tired. I think this fight is entertaining and close, but I think Fiziev will win by decision.
Garrett: The fight-of-the-year machine Justin Gaethje has another shot to win that award with his UFC 286 matchup with Rafael Fiziev. If you want to see violent striking, go to YouTube and just look up Gaethje fight highlights. He is a relentless striker with a seemingly endless gas tank and will look to be in your face at all times. Most shy away from a fight like this, but he will have a more than willing dance partner in Fiziev. Rafael Fiziev is making a name for himself as a bonafide killer at 155 as well with wars against Rafael dos Anjos, Brad Riddell, and others. If there is any fight to make sure you find a way to watch on this card, this is it. As far as predictions go, I would bet the farm this fight ends in a KO/TKO. If this goes to a decision I would be shocked. I think this is the stepping stone Fiziev needs in order to establish himself as the next boogeyman in the division. I’ll take Fiziev via TKO.
Jerry: Gaethje via decision
Anthony: Fiziev via decision
(C) Leon Edwards vs. No. 1 Kamaru Usman- Welterweight Championship Bout
James: The trilogy between Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman is finally here. At this point, everyone knows what happened in their most recent fight where Edwards landed a massive head kick to complete an all-time great comeback and steal the UFC welterweight title from Usman. Now at UFC 286, Usman looks to reclaim his title and pick up a second win against Edwards.
A lot going on in this fight. Let’s start with the skills and stylistic matchup. Usman is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC and has used that grappling to dominate opponents, including Edwards. Plus, Usman has begun to add to his striking through the help of head coach Trevor Whittman. On the feet, Usman’s jab is by far his best weapon. The issue with his striking is that his defense is flawed. On the flip side, Edwards is a really good striker. His kicks are some of his best weapons and he has strong boxing. In the clinch, Edwards has shown grappling deficiencies, but he has solid elbows and knees from that position. The skills will tell you that Usman wins this fight by decision, but I am not sure that is the full story
Now, onto the intangibles of this fight. One important thing to note is that Usman and Edwards last fought in the elevation of Salt Lake City, Utah. That could have affected the fight. It certainly affected other fighters on the card. It is not unreasonable to believe that it could have affected Edwards too. Not to mention, Usman trains in Colorado so the higher elevation would not have affected him. That could help explain Edwards’ lackluster performance in rounds two through four. Since this fight is set to take place in London, England. The elevation will not be a factor in this fight.
The other intangibles seem to be on the side of Edwards too. The most important of which is since Edwards struggled in the last fight there is a list of areas where he can improve. You can not say the same for Usman. Plus, Edwards is the younger fighter as he is only 31. Meanwhile, Usman is 35, coming off a knockout loss, and has a history of health issues. Suddenly, things start to look grim for the former champion.
As far as making a prediction goes, I have struggled. For a long time, I was under the belief that Usman was going to hold Edwards up against the fence and control his way to a decision victory. Although, I have had a last-second change of thought. After rewatching some of Edwards’ previous fights, he made a lot of mistakes against Usman that were very uncharacteristic. If he can patch up some of those mistakes he will be in a much better spot. Plus, I am more concerned about Usman’s ability to bounce back after the loss. I may regret it, but I think Edwards can win clinch positions with elbows and knees. On the feet, he should be able to counter Usman and hit him with kicks to all three levels. I think that damage will wear on Usman and help Edwards find a finish. I will take Edwards by fourth-round knockout.
Garrett: James and Anthony are jealous, and I don’t blame them. In our preview for UFC 285 and the most recent fight night, I rode with the underdogs in the high-profile fights, and I was right about both. I made a handsome amount of money as well. They are seeing my success and think they can get in on the action by taking Leon Edwards, current champion sitting at +200 (odds from DraftKings Sportsbook) in this matchup against the former UFC Welterweight champ Kamaru Usman.
Think again.
Did anyone watch their last fight? It wasn’t close. It was three rounds to one in their last encounter before the head kick heard around the world. I can not imagine the same happens here. I am aware that the striking defense of Usman has some holes in it. You could say he implements the swiss cheese gameplan on the feet. That’ll get cleaned up. Usman is heads and shoulders above Edwards. So much so that not only do I think Usman wins, I think this fight doesn’t see the championship rounds. I could see Usman finishing this fight both on the ground and on the feet, so I will flip a coin. Heads is KO/TKO, and tails is submission.
Tails never fails. Usman via third-round submission.
Jerry: Edwards via KO/TKO
Anthony: Edwards via decision
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