Too Early 2023 College Football Hot Takes: Big 12
Yes, we’re going to create a too early 2023 College Football Hot Takes post for every conference. If you missed the Big 10 post, you can find that right here. Today we move to the Big 12 and yes, it’s the last year Texas and Oklahoma are in the conference. It sucks but these are the cards we’re dealt. Get ready for some spice.
Texas is actually back
Yes, I actually said it. I think Texas football is so back. The biggest difference is I think they’re much better on the offensive and defensive lines heading into this year. Quinn Ewers is damn good and probably would have beaten Alabama a year ago had he been healthy. That injury kinda wrecked the season and things snowballed from there even when Ewers returned. Maybe it’s not a hot take because Texas are overwhelming favorites at +125 to win the conference. I would not only bet on that to happen but I think a CFB playoff spot is very much on the table.
Texas is second in the conference in returning production. They have maybe five legit NFL wide receivers and I’m not even joking about that part. The only thing they really lost was Bijan Robinson. I’ll fully admit he’s very good but Texas should be fine at running back. Cedric Baxter is the number one ranked RB during this past recruiting class and Texas landed him. I’m a Sark believer and think this is really the year they turn the corner.
West Virginia Under 5.5 Wins
I think Neal Brown is a terrible head coach and this program has shown zero progression under his watch. Winning at Troy is a lot easier than winning in the Big 12. It’s been the same nonsense since Brown has been there. Brown is 22-25 at West Virginia and trending in the wrong direction.
Last year they had JT Daniels and I’ve never seen Daniels look that bad. They also lost top receiver Bryce Ford-Wheaton to the NFL (Whom I really liked). You want some stats? I got those too.
Brown has been at West Virginia since 2019. From 2002 to 2018 West Virginia appeared in the AP Top 25 in all but one season. They have not been in the top 25 one time under Brown. Not once. Not a singular Week. In 2022 they were last in turnover margin in the Big 12 and are 3-12 under Brown against top 25 opponents. His only winning season is during the COVID season. I don’t see an obvious win on the schedule this year outside of Duquense.
Take the under and thank me later. This program is in trouble.
Oklahoma Under 9.5 Wins
Sorry, not sorry, but I’m just going to have to see it to believe this one. 9.5? I know the schedule is total cupcake material but this team stinks. Well, they don’t stink but I saw absolutely nothing out of Brent Venables last year to suggest he’s a capable head coach. This team won six games last year and rank 9th in the conference in returning production. What makes anything think this team is better?
Yes, they’re recruiting better now but that takes time. I’m sure guys like Peyton Bowen will be really good but year one? The schedule is incredibly week but nothing this team did last year showed me that they’re a double digit win team. This is supposed to be a defensive head coach and they were so bad defensively that Lincoln Riley was suddenly being praised as a defensive mastermind (insert joke here).
Yeah, you can miss me with that 10 win talk. It’s going to take a miracle to turn this defense into one capable of winning 10 games.
Oklahoma State Over 6.5
This team got absolutely smoked by the transfer portal in a bad way. I’m not denying that but I also think it’s created some sucker bets. This number is 6.5 and this bet is basically a vote in confidence for Mike Gundy. The number is 6.5 and Gundy would have surpassed that win total in every single season minus 2005 which was his first year on the job. This team is in a Bowl game every single year and they have without question the weakest schedule in the conference.
The Cowboys play all four newcomers to the conference (Central Florida, BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston). I’m not done. They also play all seven teams in the Big 12 with worse odds than they have. It gets better. The first four weeks of the year include Central Arkansas, Arizona State (they suck), South Alabama, and Iowa State. They do not play Texas and the only teams with higher preseason projected win totals (Oklahoma & Kansas State) they play them at home.
This is a bet on the cupcake schedule and on Mike Gundy. I’ll throw this in too. I don’t care what anybody says. Alan Bowman is way better than Spencer Sanders. It’s not even a discussion. They upgraded at quarterback without trying.
