Should Justin Jefferson be the WR1 in fantasy in 2022?
The NFL season begins exactly three weeks from today, so one might assume that most of you are preparing for your upcoming fantasy football drafts as the preseason winds down.
One of the many hot debates is who should be the top wide receiver taken: Justin Jefferson or Cooper Kupp?
Kupp was the league’s top receiver after winning the triple crown a year ago, but Jefferson has arguably received the most hype of the new offensive scheme this year — eerily similar to Kupp’s in Los Angeles.
Should he be WR1? Let’s explore.
After getting drafted 23rd overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, Jefferson has been arguably the top young wideout across the NFL. Over his first two seasons, he’s recorded 196 career receptions for 3,016 yards and 17 combined touchdowns.
He’s posted 11 eight-reception games, 14 100-yard games and three with multiple touchdowns. He’s the only receiver ever to total at least 3,000 combined receiving yards in his first two seasons. Jefferson’s also one of seven NFL wideouts with at least 190 receptions, 3,000 receiving yards and 15 receiving touchdowns before his age-23 season, per Sports Reference.
Here are the other six:
- DeAndre Hopkins (48 games): 239 rec., 3,533 yards, 19 TDs (2013-15)
- Mike Evans (46 games): 238 rec., 3,578 yards, 27 TDs (’14-’16)
- Larry Fitzgerald (48 games): 230 rec., 3,135 yards, 24 TDs (’04-’06)
- Randy Moss (48 games): 226 rec., 4,163 yards, 43 TDs (’98-00)
- David Boston (48 games): 209 rec., 3,227 yards, 17 TDs (’09-’11)
- Hakeem Nicks (42 games): 202 rec., 3,034 yards, 24 TDs
And, get this, Minnesota passed the ball at the 10th-lowest rate (57.0 percent) in the past two years, including the ninth-lowest rate (51.0 percent) in early down situations (1st & 2nd down) over that span, per Sports Reference.
The Vikings featured a more pass-heavy attack last year than in 2020 and will expect to even more under first-year head coach Kevin O’Connell, who was the offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams from 2020-21. For perspective, LAR ranked No. 26 and No. 14 in pass percentage, respectively, in 2020 and 21.
Rams head coach Sean McVay and signal caller Matthew Stafford completely unlocked Cooper Kupp last season, having one of the best years of any receiver in recent memory.
Kupp topped the NFL in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947) — 18 yards shy of breaking Calvin Johnson’s receiving record in 2012 — and touchdowns (16), becoming the fourth player since 1970 to win the triple crown.
Perhaps O’Connell can unlock the same with the 22-year-old superstar target with quarterback Kirk Cousins at the helm.
“It’s not a run-first offense anymore,” Jefferson said in June when appearing on the NFL Network. “Just us being able to put different people in different positions and distributing the ball, really. I’m so excited in this offense, us just being in OTAs learning the plays, going through it with our defense and stuff. We’re all excited, we’re all happy to have [O’Connell]. It’s definitely a different vibe and different connection in the building with him there.”
It’s expected that O’Connell is going to wield Jefferson around with a flurry of pre-snap motion — something the Rams excelled at — rewarding Jefferson with more advantageous matchups on the outside and in the slot. It also creates confusion for defenses while giving Cousins a better idea of what the coverages will look like pre-snap.
“The one thing about Cooper Kupp this past season is he lined up in a lot of different spots,” O’Connell said in March. “It was hard for defenses to really know where he was. He did a lot of different things. He had an impact in a lot of phases of our offense beyond just catching a lot of balls and scoring a lot of touchdowns. There was a huge role for Cooper because of his willingness to be completely solidified in every phase, both the run and the pass.”
“I see that with Justin. I see an incredible, incredible skillset, but I also see a player we can move around. We can make it hard for defenses to know where he’s going to be. He doesn’t have to line up in the same spot all the time. He doesn’t have to run the same type of routes all the time.”
Full quotes here.
Jefferson has impressed early in Vikings camp, looking virtually unguardable no matter who he’s going up against. He has yet to suit up in the preseason (for obvious reasons), so we haven’t gotten a full look of what he will look like. But the camp returns are promising!
Both passing attacks were very productive last year; the Vikings ranked No. 12 in passing DVOA while Los Angeles ranked No. 7. Minnesota has an easier schedule, improved pass protection as well as a head coach who doesn’t despise the quarterback — who’s thrown for at least 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns thrice since joining the Vikings prior to 2018.
Los Angeles has one of the toughest schedules in the NFL and lost two key offensive lineman this offseason. Stafford’s elbow troubles might also be somewhat of a concern. While the Rams’ offense will still be excellent, assuming Stafford’s out there — all of that helps in Jefferson’s case.
That said, it’s going to be remarkably difficult for Kupp to replicate his production last year, while it’ll be equally as difficult for Jefferson to eclipse or even close to that threshold. And getting integrated to a new offensive scheme could be tricky and offer growing pains regardless of how talented one is.
Kupp was the clear WR1 in all formats last year while Jefferson was WR4. Though Jefferson sits atop the receiver rankings ahead of 2022 in all formats in Fantasy Pros’ rankings, as he also does for The Ringer; Kupp is the WR1 in PPR and non-PPR formats according to ESPN and Pro Football Focus‘ experts.
So, there’s obviously merit for both to be WR1. There might not really be a wrong answer. It also might end up being someone else by year’s end. If I were you, I’d take Jefferson ahead of Kupp for a few of the reasons I mentioned above.
Nevertheless, both are going to receive plenty of volume, both are great after the catch, both are going to be utilized in ways that benefit their offenses ten-fold.
But as the clock winds down — who will you take? Justin Jefferson or Cooper Kupp. That’s the golden question that’s worth asking at this time of year, among plenty of other ones.
***
SUBSCRIBE to the Vendetta YouTube Channel!
SHOP for Vendetta Merch!
SUPPORT Vendetta on Patreon!
