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Player Props to Target for the 2022 NFL Season: Week 14

(Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

Player Props to Target for the 2022 NFL Season: Week 14

Week 14 of the NFL season is here as we continue with our weekly player prop picks. Last week we went 2-3, with Garrett Wilson and Gerald Everett being the only players who hit. Despite playing a majority of the game with Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk came up just short, while Skyy Moore and Kyren Williams were just a non-factor in their respective games. However, we are moving forward and looking ahead to this week. With that being said, let’s take a look at some of the best player prop plays on the board for Week 14.

Tony Pollard OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards vs Hou

Dallas has started to figure out that Tony Pollard is the best running back on their roster in recent weeks. The Cowboys have been deploying Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott in a running back by committee. However, Pollard has started to produce as an RB1 in recent weeks. Pollard is averaging 95.5 rushing yards in the past five games on 16 carries per game. Pollard has seen an increase in usage compared to his first five games of this season where he was averaging almost nine carries per game.

The Dallas offense has a great matchup this week against Houston. In a game where Dallas should take care of business, Pollard should have plenty of opportunities to carry the ball. When he does touch the ball, he will face the worst run defense in all of football. Houston has allowed 169 rushing yards per game on the year and 131 yards in their last three games.

There’s a reason why teams shred them on the ground. Houston sees teams run around 35 times per game against them. Pollard should hit this projection with ease as long as nothing crazy happens during the game, which makes this one of my favorite player props for Week 14.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 62.5 Rushing Yards @ DEN

Kansas City has found another offensive weapon for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense during the 2022 NFL Draft. With being drafted in the 7th round out of Rutgers, Isiah Pacheco wasn’t supposed to be the number one back. However, in recent weeks, he has climbed up the depth chart to be the featured back for the Kansas City offense. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire out and Ronald Jones just filling a roster spot for depth, the backfield consists of Jerick McKinnon and Pacheco at the moment.

The Chiefs have developed a running game in their last four games due to Pacheco. Pacheco has seen a four-game average of 81 rushing yards on almost 17 carries. Denver is currently 19th against the run, allowing 120 yards per game, which creates a good matchup for Pacheco to keep the success going. Pacheco should see a heavy workload this weekend if Kansas City takes care of business as expected. 

Christian McCaffrey OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards vs TB

Ever since being traded to San Francisco, Christian McCaffrey hasn’t had the greatest numbers on the ground. McCaffrey hasn’t had a 100-yard rushing game in the six games with the 49ers and has only gone above 70 yards once. The ultra-talented running back has been used more in the passing game in those six games. However, the 49ers will be counting on McCaffrey a lot more with Jimmy Garoppolo being out for multiple weeks with a broken foot. 

Last week when Garoppolo got hurt, McCaffrey rushed 17 times, the second most attempts in his 49er career, for 66 yards. With Brock Purdy being under center again this week, McCaffrey will be called on against the Tampa Bay defense. However, it isn’t the high-quality Tampa Bay defense we have seen over the past two years. This year, Tampa Bay is the 18th-ranked run defense in the NFL. With the expected rise in usage and the expectation of the game being close, McCaffrey should hit his player prop projection this weekend.

Dalvin Cook OVER 75.5 Rushing Yards @ DET

Make it four running back plays for the Week 14 props. Dalvin Cook faces a great matchup this weekend as the Vikings face their NFC North rivals in Detroit. Cook has had a productive year so far, as he enters the week with the 5th most rushing yards this season. In his last five games, Cook is averaging 73 yards on 17 attempts per game.

However, Cook has seen success against the Lions over the years. Earlier this year, Cook rushed for 96 yards on 17 attempts. With Cook already having success over Detroit this year, I expect him to pick up where he left off back in Week 3. Detroit allows almost more than 150 yards on the ground per game this season, which ranks 28th in the NFL. If Minnesota gives Cook his expected amount of touches, he should go over his projected number this weekend.

DeVonta Smith OVER 4.5 Receptions @ NYG

DeVonta Smith has been a big part of the Eagles’ offense this season. The second-year receiver has seen his production increase this year, even with Philly adding AJ Brown this offseason. Over the past four weeks, Smith has seen Jalen Hurts target him 8.5 times per game. After AJ Browns’ big game against his former team last week, Smith might benefit from it due to New York trying to contain Brown this weekend. 

The Giants allow the 18th most passing yards per game this season. If Smith sees man coverage, which should be expected with New York playing man coverage more than 50% of the time, expect Hurts to target the second-year receiver plenty in the NFC East showdown. If the expected volume of targets is there, Smith should be able to pull in five catches. In their last meeting, Smith pulled in five receptions on seven targets against New York last December. 

Let’s bounce back after a disappointing week. You can either tail or fade these plays at your own risk. Make sure you come back next week to see how we did with our player props for Week 14. Also, come back to check out our favorite player props for Week 15 of the NFL season.

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