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Noche UFC preview and predictions

Noche UFC Preview Bets

Alexa Grasso, left, jabs Valentina Shevchenko during a UFC 285 mixed martial arts flyweight title bout Saturday, March 4, 2023, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/David Becker)

Noche UFC Preview Bets
Alexa Grasso, left, jabs Valentina Shevchenko during a UFC 285 mixed martial arts flyweight title bout Saturday, March 4, 2023, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/David Becker)

Noche UFC preview and predictions

The UFC has assembled one of the best Fight Night cards of the year for Mexican Independence Day. Noche UFC will feature a title fight rematch between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko. UFC fans are rarely gifted a title fight on free TV. The card will go down at T-Moblie Arena in Las Vegas, Nev, with the main card will begin at 10:00 p.m. ET and the prelims starting at 7:00 p.m. ET. 

Join Vendetta Sports Media as we preview and predict the Noche UFC main card. You can find our prediction records below.

James: 103-62-2

Garrett: 104-61-2

Anthony: 83-51-1

Jerry: 83-58-1

Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson (Featherweight Bout)

James: Noche UFC will open with a featherweight bout between Fernando Padilla and Kyle Nelson. Padilla only has one UFC fight under his belt, but he made a splash in his debut as he knocked out Julian Erosa. Meanwhile, Nelson is 2-4-1 in the UFC. 

Padilla is an interesting prospect. At 6-foot-1, he is abnormally big for the featherweight division. In fights, he is an active striker that can pressure forward or counterstrike. At this point, his grappling is untested. 

Nelson does not have a great track record in the UFC, but in recent bouts, he has shown massive improvements. Nelson has adjusted his style to patch his cardio issues which has made him a much better fighter. At this point, Nelson has focused on throwing jabs, leg kicks and body kicks. Obviously, he will open up when he begins to land those weapons. Still, that is an improvement because he previously focused on throwing wild hooks. Lastly, he will look to control fights in the clinch to help patch his cardio concerns. 

The Noche UFC main card opener previews to be a good fight for Padilla. The main reason is his activity. If Padilla can push the pace, he could force Nelson to tire. Additionally, Padilla is a much cleaner boxer. I will take Padilla by second-round knockout

Garrett: Padilla via submission

Jerry: Padilla via decision

Anthony: Padilla via KO/TKO

Daniel Zellhuber vs. Christos Giagos (Lightweight Bout) 

James: At Noche UFC, Daniel Zellhuber will fight Christos Giagos. Zellhuber is an exciting Mexican prospect with a professional record of 13-1 with a promotional record of 1-1. At 24-years-old, the future looks bright for Zellhuber. Giagos will present him with a reasonable test too. At 6-6, Giagos has proved to be a UFC-caliber fighter, but he is not elite.

Zellhuber is a massive lightweight. At 6-foot-1, he is one of the biggest fighters in the division. That allows him to threaten opponents with a nice front kick. Boxing is his best tool, however. Zellhuber has a nice jab and can land hooks in the pocket. 

Giagos is reasonably well-balanced. On the feet, he has power and solid boxing. On the ground, he has passable grappling skills, but he struggles against elite grapplers, with the biggest issue being his cardio. That results in being finished late in fights. 

I like Zellhuber in this fight. On the feet, he is a cleaner boxer. I doubt Giagos has the cardio to aggressively grapple for 15 minutes to counter that, so I will take Zellhuber by second-round knockout

Garrett: Zellhuber via TKO

Jerry: Zellhuber via KO/TKO

Anthony: Zellhuber via decision

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Terrance Mitchell (Bantamweight Bout) 

James: At Noche UFC, Raul Rosas Jr., the youngest fighter in promotional history, will return to competition. The 18-year-old is 1-1 in the UFC. That loss came in his most recent fight against Christian Rodriguez. It is worth noting that the UFC rushed Rosas Jr. with that Rodriguez matchup.

From a stylistic perspective, that was a tough fight. In this bout, he will fight Terrance Mitchell. Mitchell is 0-1 in the UFC. I’ll be honest, Mitchell is not great. Outside of the UFC, the majority of his experience has come in Alaska Fighting Championship which is one of the lowest-quality regional promotions in the United States. 

After Rosas Jr.’s Dana White’s Contender Series bout, I classified him as a fighter with high potential because of his BJJ. At 18, he is much further along than a lot of fighters, but he is raw and needs to develop his skillset. This is a matchup that allows him to accomplish that. Rosas Jr. will be the much more advanced grappler and will be able to find a rear-naked choke relatively early. I will take Rosas Jr. by first-round submission

Garrett: Rosas Jr. via decision

Jerry: Rosas Jr. via submission

Anthony: Rosas Jr. via submission

No. 13 Kevin Holland vs. No. 14 Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight Bout) 

James: The Noche UFC co-main event previews to be an entertaining scrap between fan-favorite welterweights Kevin Holland and Jack Della Maddalena. This bout should be a striking battle between two talented fighters who are looking to climb towards the welterweight top ten. 

In recent fights, Holland has found success in the welterweight division after dropping from middleweight. In the lower-weight class, he puts his length on display. This is done in the form of long straights and traditional martial arts kicks. That length allows him to land powerful hooks from a far distance too. In the grappling, Holland does not have strong wrestling, but he has elite front chokes. 

Della Maddalena is in an interesting spot in his career. At one point, he showed a ton of potential, but in his last bout, his flaws were exposed. Della Maddalena showed flawed decision-making and grappling deficiencies. Thankfully for him, Holland will gladly throw his grappling advantage to the side and throw down. That will allow Della Maddalena to utilize his crisp and powerful boxing. 

This bout will be determined by Della Maddalena’s ability to get inside. If Della Maddalena can get into the pocket, he will mix shots to the body and head. That will allow him to deal a lot of damage. At a distance, Holland will have the advantage and will be capable of landing shots. In that type of fight, I lean toward Holland. I think the deciding factor will be Holland’s ability to land big hooks as Della Maddalena throws. Although, I want to make it clear that I like both fighters’ skill sets and think we are in for a close fight. I will take Holland by decision

Garrett: Della Maddalena via decision

Jerry: Della Maddalena via KO/TKO

Anthony: Holland via KO/TKO

(C) Alexa Grasso vs. No. 1 Valentina Shevchenko (Women’s Flyweight Title Rematch) 

James: The Noche UFC main event features a rematch between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko. In the first bout, Grasso ended Shevchenko’s lengthy title reign and became one of the three Mexican-born champions in the UFC. Now, just six months later, the pair are headlining the UFC’s Mexican Independence Day event and Grasso is the only Mexican-born champion left. Although, Shevchenko is hoping to change that. 

Grasso and Shevchenko first fought at UFC 285, where Grasso stole the belt and made it clear that Shevchenko is not a perfect fighter. The bout saw Grasso find success with her boxing, but Shevchenko countered with takedowns. Eventually, in the fourth round, Grasso took Shevchnko’s back as Shevchenko attempted a spinning attack. That allowed Grasso to land a rear-naked choke and win the bout. 

In rematches, there are a few things that I try to identify. The most important is, which fighter is trending up and which fighter is regressing. That is evident in this bout. Shevchenko is 35-years-old and has shown regression. That is not only evident by her loss to Grasso but she arguably lost arguably lost to Taila Santos the fight before. On the other hand, Grasso is 30-years-old and has been consistently improving. 

The other thing that I want to identify in a rematch is how a fighter can change. This large stems from a skill issue or game plan flaw. In this bout, Grasso is the fighter who can make improvements. In the first bout, Grasso was taken down several times. I imagine that Grasso and her team will be preparing for grappling. Furthermore, since she is a fighter that is progressing, she will likely display improvements in that realm. On the contrary, if Shevchenko regresses her takedowns will not be as strong. 

I have not been very suspenseful in my pick for this bout. At this point, a lot of the elements in my Noche UFC main event preview lean in favor of Grasso. That will make her my pick. I will take Grasso by decision

Garrett: Grasso via decision

Jerry: Grasso via decision

Anthony: Shevchenko via decision


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