Noche UFC Best Bets
The UFC is bringing a title fight to free TV. At Noche UFC, Alexa Grasso will look to defend the women’s strawweight title against former champion Valentina Shevchenko. From a betting perspective, the hard has quite a few sizeable favorites. Thankfully, the three closely lined bouts are worth betting on. Let’s discuss three of the best bets you can make at Noche UFC.
*All lines taken from DraftKings are accurate as of 12 p.m. ET on Friday, Sept. 14, 2023.*
Alexa Grasso +140
My Noche UFC bet slip begins with a play in the main event. The main event is a closely lined bout that has Valentina Shevchenko lined as a -166 favorite while Alexa Grasso is a +140 underdog.
Grasso and Shevchenko first fought at UFC 285. In that bout, Grasso upset Shevchenko and proved the long-reigning champion is not a perfect fighter. Now, the pair are running it back.
Grasso has quite a few advantages that I look for in rematches. The most important is that she is trendy upward while Shevchenko appears to be regressing. Grasso is 30-years-old and continues improving. On the other hand, Shevchenko is 35 and coming off a submission loss. Furthermore, Shevchenko arguably lost to Taila Santos in the bout prior.
I also believe Grasso is the fighter who can make more improvements in the rematch. In the first fight, Shevchenko was able to land several takedowns and get control time. I expect that Grasso will look to address that flaw and sure up her takedown defense, and it helps that Shevchenko is not a dominant grappler either. That makes it easier to close the gap in grappling skills.
In terms of skills, I thought Grasso’s boxing looked really good in the first fight. It looks like Grasso will be able to fight in the pocket with Shevchenko. That will allow Grasso to pressure forward and crowd Shevchenko’s kicks. If Shevchenko can not land takedowns, she will struggle to stop Grasso’s pressure.
As far as betting goes, I like Grasso at a +140 price tag. I believe the biggest factors of a rematch will play into her favor and I see the stylistic path. That makes Grasso one of my favorite bets for Noche UFC.
Kevin Holland +120
The second bet that I like for Noche UFC is for Kevin Holland to beat Jack Della Maddalena. Holland is currently lined as a +120 underdog while Della Maddalena is a -142 favorite.
The most important aspect of this bet, in my opinion, is the number. Obviously, that is important in every bet, but in this fight, I want to bet on the underdog. It is very rare that I pick against one of these fighters. Usually, these two fighters are guys that I look to bet on. In this fight, I am getting a fighter that I like to bet on as an underdog. It just happens to be Holland. At +120, I like this bet for Noche UFC.
Outside of the value, I do slightly lean toward Holland. I expect that he will be able to utilize his length on the outside to land straight shots. In the pocket, Della Maddalena will have the advantage, but I respect Holland’s ability to land inside. Lastly, if we are thrown a curveball and see grappling, Holland will have the advantage.
Tracy Cortez -130
The final bet that I have on Noche UFC is for Tracy Cortez to beat Jasmine Jasudavicius. The bout is lined relatively close as Cortez is lined as a -130 favorite while Jasudavicius is a +110 underdog.
This bout is a matchup between quality grapplers. In previous bouts, Cortez and Jasudavicius have leaned on their wrestling to rack up control time and win decisions. I believe Cortez is the better wrestler and has a more complete ground game. In grappling exchanges, I am more bullish on Cortez being the fighter to land takedowns. In addition, her top pressure is great and she does solid work with ground and pound. On the few occasions that Cortez has been taken down, she has shown that she is not willing to accept the bottom position. That will be highly useful in a grappling-oriented bout.
Cortez will have some hurdles in this fight. Jasudavicius is a long and strong fighter. On the feet, Cortez could struggle with the long strikes of Jasudavicius. In grappling, the strength may present issues, but I am not as concerned since I prefer Cortez’s technique.
I expect this to be a close fight. At the end of the day, Cortez is the better wrestler and has a more complete ground game. In a fight that I expect to have a lot of grappling, it would be hard for me not to bet Cortez at Noche UFC.
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