Michael Penix Jr. Proved He Isn’t First-Round Material
Before we begin, I feel like I need to be a little transparent when it comes to Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. Early on this season, I was all in. I was eating the cheese big time; Chickster and I both were (and he still is). But if we’re being honest here, the more I sit and watch him and his mechanics, I put away the cheese. Nothing about him or his game should elicit any belief that he is worth a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Did you watch the National Championship game last night? (If you missed it, Trey has great notes for his stock report series here) He looked like a mess out there. 27-for-51 isn’t great, his accuracy seemed more off than normal as well. I do think part of it was the game plan because they weren’t pushing the ball down the field like we normally see from this Huskies offense. But even some of the underneath and crossing throws he was being too inconsistent on.
I will give credit where it’s due. I do think that there are some nice qualities to work with. Penix Jr. has an above-average arm, in the sense he can fit the ball into windows that you want. He has shown a fair bit of mobility in and out of the pocket this season which is something you want in today’s NFL. Penix led FBS in passes completed 20-plus yards down the field with 45, which is a really solid stat to be a leader in. But man, the other stuff terrifies me.
I think the things that scare me the most from drafting Penix, especially early, are the injury history and his age. We are talking about a QB who has suffered FOUR season-ending injuries (two knee, two shoulder). Are you sure his body is going to be able to withstand 17 NFL games over multiple seasons? If you put him behind the Commanders’ OL he might not last a full season.
The age also has to be addressed here. By the time Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season begins, Penix Jr. will be 24-years-old. For context, here is a list of guys who are at or around the same age.
- Justin Fields: 24
- Trevor Lawrence: 23
- Jalen Hurts: 25
- Tua Tagovailoa: 25
- Brock Purdy: 23
- C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson: 21
I’m sorry, but if I am taking a QB in the first round of the draft, I don’t want him to be multiple years older than guys who have NFL experience. I get the experience he brings in from playing time, but by the time his fifth-year option kicks in, he is going to be 29-years-old. I’ll pass.
To steal a line from a wise man I know: I wouldn’t be able to sleep at night if I turned in the card on Michael Penix Jr. How could you? The weaknesses are too much for me. The injury history scares me to death.
We have not begun our draft profiles, but at first glance, I probably have a third-round grade on him. But some NFL general manager is going to talk themselves into drafting him in the mid-late part of Round 1, and it will be a massive mistake.
