Are We Sure J.J. McCarthy Is Any Good?
The Michigan Wolverines went out last night and had their way with the Washington Huskies, winning the 2024 National Championship 34-13. 34 points in a title game is no easy feat, especially when you consider the quarterback did next to nothing.
Over the last few weeks with Michigan and starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy, that has been the theme. It’s worked, obviously, but it begs the question: Are we sure that McCarthy is any good?
Let’s first talk about last night’s game. Here are some key offensive stats to look at:
- McCarthy: 10-for-18, 140 yards, 0 touchdowns, 0 INTs
- Blake Corum: 21 carries, 134 yards, two touchdowns
- Donovan Edwards: 6 carries, 104 yards, two touchdowns
- 1-for-10 on third down
- Only six first downs via passing
The story from last night is the run game and how dominant the Michigan offensive line is. Washington had a very poor run defense and the Wolverines had a near-perfect game plan to exploit the Huskies’ weaknesses.
I say nearly perfect because McCarthy probably threw the ball 14 more times than he needed to. Remember, in the Penn State game he only threw eight passes the entire game and they still won; nine out of the 15 games played this year he had less than 25 attempts.
I want to be clear, I do believe that McCarthy has some really solid upside. I was a fan coming into the year. He has a live arm. He has the measurables you like out of a QB (6-foot-3, 200 lbs.). He can move very well but also does a really nice job keeping his eyes downfield when scrambling. I love his throwing motion and that it always feels crisp and the exact same. He’s shown flashes of being a pinpoint thrower as well.
But if you watch some tape, you’ll see that his top half is always the same, and his bottom half is not. His footwork has to be cleaned up, especially as he is likely entering the 2024 NFL Draft. Those feet cause him to miss some easy throws at times. From what I see, he doesn’t do a great job going through progressions, leading him to telegraph throws or put himself in danger by rolling out of the pocket too early before the play develops.
My original question was if McCarthy is good. I think he is good, but he isn’t good. Not yet.
Let me explain. The narrative surrounding Justin Herbert right now is that he is good in the sense that he has all the traits of being an elite-level QB. But he isn’t “good” in the sense that, right now at least, he might not be a guy who can elevate a roster, put the team on his back and carry them. I think that is what we get with McCarthy right now. He has all the tools to, I believe, be a slightly plus-starter. But he just isn’t good.
J.J. McCarthy is likely NFL-bound after winning a National Championship. There are going to be NFL teams who watch him and talk themselves into selecting him in the first round. He did JUST turn 20 years old, so you get a moldable project which can be tempting.
But if you are taking him in the first round, you’re saying he might need to contend to start right away, which is a mistake. I have a Day 2 grade on him as someone who could turn into a starter, but should not see the field year one.
SHOP!
