Ladies and Gentlemen, Please Welcome Your 2024 Philadelphia Phillies
The last six months have been something rare for the Philadelphia Phillies: quiet. Typically, the Phillies are a franchise defined by turmoil, but the last two Octobers have largely been defined by triumph. Some of the luster faded as the Phillies chased pitch after pitch throughout the NLCS, squandering a golden opportunity to return to the World Series. Still, they have won 19 postseason games over the last two seasons, more than any other team. It is a far better existence than the one they experienced just a few seasons ago.
For the first time since the 2017 offseason, the Phillies did not add a player to the organization on a contract worth at least $50 million. Instead, they re-signed their top two starters and focused on bolstering their organizational depth. Only one free agent signee made the Opening Day roster, but several others may make an impact during the dog days of summer.
Even accounting for minor injuries on the pitching side, the Phillies enter 2024 in better shape than the last two years. Their lineup is healthy and its only major question mark is in the No. 9 hole. A once historically bad bullpen is now projected to be one of baseball’s best. The star players are comfortable and all know the unique challenges and rewards of playing in Philadelphia.
It takes far more than 26 to make a championship team. The foundation, though, is what’s most important. The Phillies have one of the best in the sport, and that is what has carried them deep into the last two autumns. Here is everything you need to know about them — the 2024 Philadelphia Phillies — in three sentences or less.
Starting Lineup
DH Kyle Schwarber (2023: .197/.343/.474, 47 HR, 104 RBI, 0.6 bWAR)
Few players with such a high level of productivity garner as much debate about their usage as Schwarber. His on-base percentage increased by almost the same amount that his batting average decreased from 2022 while his power remained the same. Regardless of where you think he should be fitting in the lineup, increased time as the designated hitter should only benefit Schwarber and the team.
SS Trea Turner (2023: .266/.320/.459, 26 HR, 76 RBI, 30 SB, 3.4 bWAR)
Just look to the No. 7 spot in this lineup to see how much difference having a year in Philly under your belt can make. Turner’s power-speed combination was on full display starting in early August, and he’s proven before he can put up average defensive numbers and chase rates. For the record, his OPS was nearly 100 points higher batting second than first last year, although his career mark in both spots is pretty similar.
1B Bryce Harper (2023: .293/.401/.499, 21 HR, 72 RBI, 11 SB, 3.7 bWAR)
Harper’s 2023 season was more chaotic than most people remember. It started with a remarkably quick recovery from Tommy John surgery, garnered attention when he adjusted well to becoming a first-baseman and during a mid-summer power outage, then peaked with another potent postseason performance. Harper stands to benefit as much as anyone from a more acclimated Turner.
C J.T. Realmuto (2023: .252/.310/.452, 20 HR, 63 RBI, 16 SB, 3.6 bWAR)
Realmuto is attributing his slightly down offensive 2023 season to swing problems rather than the hefty workload he has shouldered throughout his career — and the one he plans to carry again in 2024. How Realmuto ages will be a fascinating case study for other catchers, especially after the Los Angeles Dodgers just signed Will Smith to a record-breaking 10-year extension. Something minor to watch: Realmuto’s framing rates have dropped from the 85th to the 50th to the 2nd percentile over the last three seasons.
3B Alec Bohm (2023: .274/.327/.437, 20 HR, 97 RBI, 4 SB, 0.9 bWAR)
Advanced metrics don’t necessarily agree with the eye test for Bohm on defense, registering minimal improvements despite the dark days of 2021 being in the rearview mirror. As such, Bohm must keep tapping into his power — he did reach 20 homers a year ago, but his expected slugging percentage has been higher than his actual production each of the last three seasons. It’s not a stretch to say his future with the Phillies once he hits free agency after the 2026 season depends on it.
2B Bryson Stott (2023: .280/.329/.419, 15 HR, 62 RBI, 31 SB, 4.3 bWAR)
Stott is the best-kept secret on the Phillies, leading the team in bWAR last season and earning a much-deserved Gold Glove nomination in his first full Major League season at second base. He is reportedly looking to be a bit more aggressive at the plate in 2024, although the Phillies already have plenty of free swingers in their lineup. It will be interesting to see if he keeps that approach if he gets an extended look higher in the order at some point.
RF Nick Castellanos (2023: .272/.311/.476, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 11 SB, 1.5 bWAR)
A nightmare NLCS makes it easy to forget how locked in Castellanos was in the Division Series, just like how a miserable July (.162/.194/.303) distracts from what was otherwise the type of season the Phillies expected when they added him from the Cincinnati Reds two years ago. His flaws at the plate and in the field are obvious and will likely never change, but his strengths were more on display than in 2022. At his current state, Castellanos will almost certainly be more valuable to the Phillies than in a trade for the final three years of his contract.
LF Brandon Marsh (2023: .277/.372/.458, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 10 SB, 3.4 bWAR)
Marsh took significant steps forward at the plate last season against righties and lefties, although he had the same amount of at-bats against southpaws as in 2022. His walk rate jumped from the 21st to 88th percentile and hit the ball much harder, although his expected slugging percentage was essentially static. The 2022 left-field Gold Glove finalist in the American League could spend the majority of this season in that position.
CF Johan Rojas (2023: .302/.342/.430, 2 HR, 23 RBI, 14 SB, 2.5 bWAR)
Everyone saw how ugly Rojas was at the plate last October, but not as many saw — or at least remember — the game-changing defensive value he brought when promoted straight from Double-A in July. If he can be within striking distance of the league average at the plate, whether it’s via a re-tooled approach or just by improving as a bunter (he showed progress in both departments in Spring Training), the Phillies will gladly take the trade-off. Rojas will probably get at least a month to show his stuff — after that, things can be re-evaluated.
Bench
C Garrett Stubbs (2023: .204/.274/.283, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 2 SB, 0.2 bWAR)
Even acknowledging his value on defense, the base paths, and in the clubhouse, the Phillies need more offense from Stubbs. Not a lot more, but a little bit. Another injury to former quality prospect Rafael Marchán extends the leash on Stubbs, though.
2B Whit Merrifield (2023 – TOR: .272/.318/.382, 11 HR, 67 RBI, 26 SB, -1.3 bWAR)
The Phillies believe that with a lesser workload, Merrifield’s full-season slash line can look more like his first-half numbers from 2023 (.286/.342/.392). Merrifield only cleared a .700 OPS in two months (April and July) last season, so maybe that’s a bit optimistic. Regardless, he’s an option to start at second base or left field against a tough lefty and can pinch run or hit against either handedness.
3B Edmundo Sosa (2023: .251/.293/.427, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 4 SB, -0.3 bWAR)
Last season all but confirmed the most likely outcome for Sosa: he’s a solid reserve whose extreme aggressiveness makes it easy for opposing teams to expose him with regular playing time. JoJo Romero was better than you think last year for the St. Louis Cardinals, so what looked like a steal of a trade a year ago seems closer to a push today. He’s sort of a higher-variance version of Merrifield.
CF Cristian Pache (2023: .238/.319/.417, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 2 SB, 0.4 bWAR)
Pache’s spring was up and down but good enough on the whole (.821 OPS) to beat out Jake Cave, who was traded to the Colorado Rockies, for the last playoff spot. Once again, Sosa is a decent comparable – a free-swinging depth piece whose value comes from his legs and his glove. Playing time will likely be sporadic, but Pache needs to stay healthy and, like Rojas, show at least has the bat to hang around in The Show.
Starting Rotation
RHP Zack Wheeler (2023: 3.61 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 4.2 bWAR, 192 IP)
The last starting pitcher not named Aaron Nola to start Opening Day for the Phillies was Jeremy Hellickson. Suffice it to say Wheeler is quite a bit better, as the run value of his fastball has graded out in the 98th percentile or better in each of his four seasons in Philadelphia. He is slated to spend at least four more after signing a 3-year, $126 million extension that kicks in next season during Spring Training.
RHP Aaron Nola (2023: 4.46 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.3 bWAR, 193.2 IP)
Nola gave up much more hard contact in 2023 than the season prior, which led to an ERA over 4 for the second time in three seasons. But given Nola’s track record and his success after making some adjustments in September, it’s easy to feel good about the 7-year, $172 million contract the Phillies signed him to early in free agency. If he can land his secondary pitches for strikes, Nola will be just fine.
LHP Ranger Suárez (2023: 4.18 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.42 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.4 bWAR, 125 IP)
The cool-as-a-cucumber lefty had a blissfully uneventful, productive Spring after dealing with visa issues and injury the last two years. Suárez significantly increased the usage of his curveball (19%, up from 8% in 2022), seeing his K/9 jump by over a full strikeout. Hopefully, this is the year that Suárez racks up enough innings to be eligible for a Gold Glove after leading pitchers in defensive runs saved among pitchers two seasons ago.
LHP Cristopher Sánchez (2023: 3.44 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.1 bWAR, 99.1 IP)
Pessimists may compare optimism around Sánchez to Bailey Falter last season, but Sánchez’s changeup is the true out pitch that Falter lacked. The emphasis on Sánchez was adding back some of the velocity that he lost while focusing on improving his control. Finishing in the 98th percentile in walk rate will certainly play.
RHP Spencer Turnbull (2023 – DET: 7.26 ERA, 5.55 FIP, 1.68 WHIP, 7 K/9, 31 IP)
Once a promising prospect in the Detroit Tigers system, Turnbull has dealt with health injuries throughout the last few years, including Tommy John surgery in 2021. His fastball never had elite velocity but it graded out very well before the surgery, then batters slugged .518 off it in seven starts in 2023. Taijuan Walker‘s injury opened the door for Turnbull — whether he goes to the bullpen or the Triple-A rotation after remains to be soon.
Bullpen
LHP José Alvarado (2023: 1.74 ERA, 2.41 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 13.9 K/9, 10/12 SV, 41.1 IP, 0.7 bWAR)
He didn’t pitch enough innings to qualify, but Alvarado’s average exit velocity against went from one of baseball’s best to well below average in 2023. That’s largely nitpicking for Alvarado, who allowed a run in just eight appearances in the regular season and followed seven of them with a zero in at least his next two appearances. Usually, it’s the Tampa Bay Rays acquiring and molding pitchers like Alvarado — not dealing them away.
RHP Jeff Hoffman (2023: 2.41 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 0.92 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 1/3 SV, 52.1 IP, 1.9 bWAR)
What a difference a Harper rehab hitting session can make. That’s what got Hoffman his shot last season, and he used it to show off a slider that helped rank top 30 in Stuff+ (min. 30 innings pitched). The 31-year-old could be a mid-season extension candidate, as he’s currently slated to hit the open market in the winter.
RHP Seranthony Domínguez (2023: 3.78 ERA, 4.84 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2/9 SV, 50 IP, 0.4 bWAR)
Domínguez wasn’t at maximum dominance in 2023, as evidenced by a strikeout rate that fell by over two punchouts per nine innings. But his hard-hit rate went from the 5th to 94th percentile and didn’t allow an earned run in 5.1 innings in the postseason, so it’s not like things were all bad. Craig Kimbrel‘s departure will likely lead to more save opportunities for Hoffman and Domínguez.
LHP Matt Strahm (2023: 3.29 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2/5 SV, 87.2 IP, 2.2 bWAR)
Not only did Strahm stay healthy and pitch in just about every role possible last season, but he was very effective at both striking hitters out and limiting walks. His fastball is one of the slowest in Philadelphia’s high-octane bullpen, which explains his below-average hard-hit rate. But a one-year extension that includes a vesting option for 2026 hardly seems like a bad decision to anyone who watched Strahm last season.
LHP Gregory Soto (2023: 4.62 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 3/6 SV, 60.1 IP, 0.0 bWAR)
Keep in mind that it took a year and a half before the Phillies unlocked the best version of José Alvarado, an obvious Soto comparable. His underlying metrics grade out incredibly positive — even his walk rate went from dismal to near league average. If he can find a smidge of consistency, the ceiling is high.
RHP Yunior Marte (2023: 5.03 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.63 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 2/4 SV, 39.1 IP, -0.3 bWAR)
Like Soto, the hard-throwing Marte had stretches where he looked like the next steal for the Phillies’ front office. He dominated at Triple-A (1.80 ERA) but needs to throw more strikes and be more effective with his slider to stick. He has one minor league option remaining.
RHP Connor Brogdon (2023: 4.03 ERA, 5.15 FIP, 1.45 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 29 IP, 0.3 bWAR)
Brogdon is mainly here because he cannot be sent to the Minor Leagues without clearing waivers. He’s had his moments (1.93 ERA in the first half of 2022, striking out five of seven hitters in a high-stakes appearance in Game 5 of the World Series), but struggled even upon demotion last year. This is his last chance to make it with the Phillies, and he’ll need to improve on his spring results to make it count.
RHP Luis Ortiz (2023: 3.32 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 1.47 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 19 IP, 0.2 bWAR)
Ortiz put up good numbers in limited opportunities at the Major League level last season. Like Brogdon, he can work multiple innings, which is a plus (especially with one candidate for the long relief role — Turnbull — in the rotation). At some point soon, one of these last three will be sent down once rookie Orion Kerkering and his all-world slider return after illness set back his spring.
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Advanced Statistics via Baseball Savant, Fielding Bible, and FanGraphs
