Iowa Basketball: Kris Murray Breakout Predictions Are Unfair
Every college basketball season produces new stars, many of them previously unheralded. For 2022-23, one of the most common predictions for a breakout player is junior forward Kris Murray of Iowa Basketball. Last season, Kris’ brother Keegan had a breakout of his own for the Hawkeyes. He averaged 23.5 points per game on 55% from the field, finishing as a Consensus All-American and MVP of the Big Ten Tournament. Keegan Murray was taken fourth overall in the 2022 NBA Draft by the Sacramento Kings. Ahead of this season, many have suggested that Kris can follow Keegan’s incredible performance. I explained this phenomenon in the Jimmer Range 2022-23 Big Ten Preview/Predictions episode.
Everywhere you look, it seems like Kris Murray is the runaway favorite for an immense breakout in 2022-23. Andy Katz had him at No. 1 on his breakout player list, as did the writers for The Almanac. The vast majority of these predictions make sure to mention Keegan Murray’s success in their discussion of Kris. Are these expectations fair? The hype is starting to get out of control and maybe it’s time to tap the brakes.
Last season, Kris played 17.9 minutes per game, tallying 9.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, and a 47.9% field goal percentage in that time. Definitely solid numbers off the bench! The working theory is that when given starter’s minutes and high usage (as head coach Fran McCaffery loves to do with his frontcourt players), we can expect a massive increase in production.
These predictions have become too causal for me. There’s too much “because Keegan was good, therefore Kris will be good” in the air for my liking. Keegan set the bar extremely high in that he was a top-five player in the country last year. Expecting Kris to reach such heights seems like setting him up for failure.
Define “Breakout”
I doubt most of the people predicting a Kris Murray breakout would also claim they are expecting him to perform up to what Keegan did last year. However, that’s not what comes across when Kris Murray is a near lock at No. 1 of every breakout prediction and Keegan’s name is mentioned in almost all of them. To some extent that’s unavoidable, but Kris is not Keegan and Keegan is not Kris.
Maybe it’s just that people need to define their terms better. Not all breakouts occur to the same degree. I expect Kris Murray to average anywhere from 14-16 points per game next year. I think seeing Kris Murray at No. 1 on all these lists and calling upon Keegan’s All-American campaign would have many disappointed with 16 points per game. That would still be a breakout and put him on an All-Big Ten team, but it’s certainly a far cry from 23.5 a contest.
I could see how my real gripe doesn’t really make a ton of sense, so I’ll close with this. I’m not at all rooting against Kris Murray or suggesting he can’t have a very good season. However, basing a breakout prediction on what Keegan Murray did last season either 1) does a disservice to how good Kris could be by shifting the conversation away from his own merits as a basketball player, or 2) sets Kris up for failure by holding him to far too high a standard. Let Keegan be Keegan and let Kris be Kris.
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