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Flyers Fan Reaction (FFR4) Gm 50: CAR 4, PHI 3 (OT) – MetroNOme

For the third straight game, the Flyers skated right with, if not past a superior Metro Division rival. For the third straight game, their short-handed roster found a way to lose in an agonizing fashion. (Derik Hamilton/AP)

Flyers Fan Reaction (FFR4) Gm 50: CAR 4, PHI 3 (OT) – MetroNOme

If only we could elect to start this season over. The Philadelphia Flyers lose, 4-3, in overtime, to the Carolina Hurricanes in a “special” Monday matinee. Really, the only thing special about the game was the start time; almost everything else resembled their previous two games. Outplay stellar Metropolitian Divison foe, have victory within reach… and find a way to let the game “fall through your hands,” as Oskar Lindblom said post-game.

Groundhog Day may have been almost three weeks ago, but it’s hard not to feel like the Flyers are stuck in an endless loop. Or at least one that feels more endless than the last how-ever-many years have. After being one of the league’s worst 5-on-5 teams through the first three months, the Flyers have racked up a 50.99% expected goals since Jan. 18. They’ve cleared the 60% mark in two of their last four. They’ve been leading or tied in the back half of the third period in each of their last three games. And yet the losses keep piling up.

Monday wasn’t the Flyers’ most complete effort of the season; Mike Yeo called it a game where the team “didn’t play a full 60 minutes to our capability.” But despite some lulls, the Flyers never sunk to the truly dismal level they were mired in during early December and January. They out-chanced the Hurricanes in every period. They drew three penalties to Carolina’s one. Philadelphia recorded at least eleven shots in every period of regulation. And they held a Hurricanes team that is top ten in the NHL with 33 shots on goal per game to just 25 in the first sixty minutes.

And yet it felt like the Flyers were almost always on the wrong end of an Impractical Jokers episode. Their 11-2 shots on goal edge in the first period resulted in a stalemate on the scoreboard; only for Carolina to strike first just 24 seconds when a bouncing puck off a stanchion eluded everyone except for Nino Niederriter. Yes, the Flyers struck back just 35 seconds later on a fortuitous bounce of their won; yet Carolina still managed to retake the lead on a wide-open one-timer from the slot from Teuvo Tervainen. Even that goal was still covered in bad luck. Yes, the Flyers’ defense broke down in front, leading to an A+ chance. But they would have dodged the bullet if it didn’t hit Nick Seeler and bounce in.

But Philadelphia still wouldn’t give in the way they almost certainly would have earlier in the season. Patrick Brown and Rasmus Ristolainen, both returning from injury, etched their names onto the scoresheet courtesy of Brown’s game-tying goal in the third, with a beautiful power-move backdoor feed by Isaac Ratcliffe in between their touches. Less than two minutes later, the Hurricanes scored on another fortunate bounce; a blocked shot that landed right at Vincent Trocheck’s feet for a pretty skate-to-stick backhander. Still, the Flyers wouldn’t quit. And sure enough, Oskar Lindblom squeaked the rebound of a Travis Konecny shot through Andersen and over the goal-line for a late equalizer.

However, when push came to shove, the Flyers once again couldn’t get over the hump. Hardly a minute after Cam Atkinson was robbed by a “sick save,” to use Lindblom’s description, by Andersen on a forehand-backhand move on a 3-on-1, Brett Pesce settled down a perfect saucer pass from Trocheck and beat Martin Jones short-side for the game-winner with less than twenty seconds remaining in 3-on-3.

To some, it may not matter that the Flyers didn’t find a way to win Monday. In fact, they might not care if the Flyers win again this season. After all, the team has fallen completely out of the playoff race, with lottery odds the only thing really to be decided on the ice over the next two months. And in a vacuum, they’re right. When it comes to the ultimate goal of winning the Stanley Cup or even just making the playoffs, the Flyers’ season is almost certainly over. In fact, it has been for a while now; if not when they lost 10 straight games two months ago, then certainly when they dropped their franchise-record 13th straight on Jan. 25.

So why did Mike Yeo say the team is at a “tipping point right now” after the game? It all goes back to what Yeo has been talking about for a while — the team’s habits. In that area, the Flyers’ progress is undeniable. They are no longer the structureless, discombobulated mess that they were towards the end of Alain Vigneault’s reign or post-Christmas. They make their mistakes and have their breakdowns, just like every team. But they are undeniably a better team by both advanced metrics and the eye test. Yet partially because of the state of the team’s lineup — Ristolainen and Brown’s returns are upgrades, but the team is still nowhere near 100%, and never will be this season — and partially simply because of bad luck, wins are still incredibly hard to come by.

The team’s record the rest of the way will probably only matter for ping-pong ball combinations. But there are two distinct ways their process can go from here. No matter how rare rewards are, the Flyers can keep playing with whatever opponent is thrown at them, building confidence and trying to build some semblance of positive momentum to take into the future. Or they can slip back into their previous mistakes, just as they did towards the tail end of their thirteen losing streak. After all, that began with the Flyers playing very poorly, but then the Flyers improved their play midway through; only to deliver a few more clunkers at the end as the losses kept piling up.

The latter has the best chance of having the best lottery odds going for it. And if the Flyers were going in a full rebuild, it would probably be the better short and long-term angle to root for. But that isn’t what’s happening. Whether you agree with it or not, the Flyers are committed to turning things around in 2022-23. Piling up losses while the team is still incredibly battered or/and after they’ve been (potentially) gutted at the trade deadline probably won’t change that. But as Yeo insisted, the 2021-22 Flyers can still create change. “Whether it’s changing culture, building a game, going from a place of where we’ve been for the last two years to where we wanna go, that’s a really tough job. A lot of teams with a lotta good players haven’t been able to break that.”

“The next part’s gonna be the hardest.”

That last line may sound daunting to a Flyers team that is falling well short of their goals. But the good news is that the 2021-22 team won’t be shouldering the entirety of that next part. The Flyers can still return to playoff contention next year if they struggle mightily over the next nine weeks. However, they can make flipping the switch just a little bit easier if they move their team play, and the boosts to individual players it will likely include, over that span. The good news is that they’ve already got the ball moving in the right direction. But it remains an uphill battle; one whoever’s suiting up for will have to commit to in order to prevent things from snowballing in the wrong direction once again.

Lindies

Monday wasn’t just a rare weekday afternoon game, but it was the Flyers’ annual Pride Night celebration. Make sure to check out this interview with Broad Street Hockey’s Steph Driver and Scott Laughton, the Flyers’ You Can Play Ambassador, about what the day means to him and what’s being done to ensure hockey truly is for everyone, today and every day.

Before today’s game, the Flyers also hosted the traveling Black Hockey History Tour, another nice step towards educating everyone about the history of the sport and making hockey more inclusive. Monday may have been another tough loss on the on-ice, but it was a pretty good one where it matters most for the Flyers organization.

For all of their injury woes this season, goaltending has largely been unscathed all season. Despite having the fourth most man-games lost in the NHL as of Feb. 10 (Man Games Lost NHL), NHL Injury Viz had the Flyers at just five games lost to goalies through Feb. 18, third-fewest in the NHL. Of course, nothing good for the 2021-22 Flyers can last forever. Carter Hart missed today’s game with an eye infection. And to make matters worst, third-string goalie Felix Sandström is injured as well. The Flyers called up Kirill Ustimenko, who has a solid .914 SV% in just four AHL games this year, to back up Monday. Either he’ll make his NHL debut tomorrow or Jones will have to play on the second half of a back-to-back. Not exactly the most appealing options.

To make room for Brown’s return, the Flyers waived Connor Bunnaman Sunday. He cleared and will report to the Phantoms.

The Gerry Mayhew breakout remains alive and well. While his goal today was a bit fluky (a centering bounce that bounced in off a Carolina skate), it came from Mayhew going to the net; and in the midst of another strong game overall. Mayhew finished the game with 0.51 individual expected goals for in all situations, third-most among Flyers behind Cam Atkinson and Claude Giroux.

Mayhew of course saw time alongside those two on Thursday. But it was a different call-up getting a well-deserved test drive on the top-line. Isaac Ratcliffe continues to impress in the NHL, showing off a nice mixture of confidence and physicality. After hitting the crossbar following a clean strip of Pesce, an underrated but excellent defender, Ratcliffe nearly scored on the ensuing offensive-zone face-off with a through-the-legs shot. He also set up Brown’s tying goal with a gorgeous move around the side of the goal, using his frame to shield off the checking of a couple of Hurricanes. Interestingly, Ratcliffe wasn’t exactly talking a big game afterward. “There was even a couple times tonight where I could’ve been stronger on pucks or stronger on my feet. I think I had a couple shifts off.” Clearly, he didn’t have very many; Ratcliffe’s 86.54% expected goals led the team.

Ratcliffe also agreed with an odd but increasingly popular assessment — that he’s actually playing better in the NHL than in the AHL. “It’s hard to make a mistake when everyone’s doing the right thing,” explained Ratcliffe. “This game’s a little bit faster, but everyone’s always in the right spot, so it’s hard to make a mistake.” Ratcliffe was scoring at a 32-point pace across 82 games (13 in 34) in the AHL. In an incredibly small sample size, he’s at a 47-point pace (4 in 7) so far in the NHL.

3 Stars

3rd: Patrick Brown (PHI) – Goal (2), 5 Shots, 4 Hits, 71% Faceoffs

2nd: Vincent Trocheck (CAR) – Goal (14), Assist (21), 5 Shots, 57% Faceoffs

1st: Brett Pesce (CAR) – Goal (4), 4 Shots, 27:37 TOI

Next

CAR: 2/25, 7 PM vs. CBJ (25-23-1, W2)

PHI: 2/22, 7 PM vs. STL (29-14-6, W1)

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All Advanced Stats are 5-on-5 unless otherwise stated and via Natural Stat Trick

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