FIBA World Cup 2023: Who can beat Team USA?
The 2023 FIBA World Cup of basketball is a truly international affair. That might seem obvious, given it is, next to the Olympic Games, the most prestigious international basketball tournament on the planet, but this year’s tourney takes on a different flavour. The event is ostensibly hosted by the Philippines, that basketball-mad archipelagic group of over 7,500 islands deep in South East Asia, though group stages are also taking place in Jakarta, Indonesia and Okinawa, Japan.
The games kick off tonight (Australian time) with Angola and Italy squaring off in Group A concurrently with Group E’s Finland-Australia matchup with a further six games to follow on day one.
Team USA is once again, rightfully, considered a strong favourite for the crown. Despite taking a team to the World Cup that is short on the usual star power that the Americans usually possess, they’re still sporting a phalanx of leading lights in Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, Brandon Ingram and Jaren Jackson Jr.
Paolo Banchero, often used as a de facto point guard as a rookie in Orlando, provides a wildcard as the backup centre. Where the US has changed tack is by surrounding that core with a series of versatile high-end role players.
Jalen Brunson is the point orchestrator who is equally comfortable away from the ball; Bobby Portis is the “dirty work” big who provides insurance against JJJ’s fouling and Banchero’s rawness on an international stage; Josh Hart will happily bang bodies with anybody who strays across his path. Austin Reaves is the sort of jack-of-all-trades that generally thrives in international hoops.
The traditional powerhouses that have taken down the USA are also on the wane, if not totally diminished. Spain’s Golden Era national team is only represented by Ricky Rubio and a 38-year-old Rudy Fernandez, the former of those currently taking a hoops sabbatical. Argentina’s mega teams are all retired, though it would surprise nobody if 43-year-old Luis Scola could still drop an efficient 15 and 7 on anyone who dared to guard him down low.
Further strengthening the USA’s grip on the title has been the steady withdrawals of some of the biggest drawcards from the international field. Nikola Jokic is taking a well-earned break; Domantas Sabonis and Giannis Antetokounmpo are resting injuries; Victor Wembanyama is preparing for his NBA rookie campaign; Ben Simmons is….umm….is anyone sure what Ben Simmons is up to?
Anyway…
That’s not to say that the Americans will simply stroll to World Cup glory. Of the five FIBA World Cups since the turn of the century, the USA has only come out on top in two of them. So who are the teams most likely to challenge the expected dominance of Team USA? Let’s take a look at five teams who could give the US the strongest of migraines.
Slovenia
The very definition of a one-man team, the Slovenian’s are nonetheless dangerous because of that one man: Luka Doncic. Doncic is beyond doubt the best player at this tournament. He came ever so close to averaging a triple-double at the 2020 Olympics, where he almost dragged his team to a bronze medal.
With Goran Dragic and Vlatko Cancar both injured, the Slovenians will take no other NBA players into the tournament. That, though, means that every player on their roster has been placed for one specific purpose: they complement Luka.
Zoran Dragic and Ziga Samar will give Luka some off-ball reps, allowing him to rest without going to the bench. Jaka Blazic and especially Klemen Prepelic will stretch the floor, happily launching after catching Doncic lasers. Mike Tobey will take care of the dirty work in the paint.
This roster is built around one simple concept: make the best of Luka, so he can make the best of us. In short tournaments like this, that sort of clarity could prove vital.
Germany
The Germans are not by any means a traditional basketballing powerhouse. Prior to Dirk Nowitzki’s arrival on the scene, the only German player of international note was Detlef Schrempf, now aged in his 60s. Despite that lack of pedigree, this roster is surprisingly deep.
Led by young Orlando Magic Swiss-German Army Knife Franz Wagner, the Germans boast four NBA players: Franz’s big brother/bodyguard Moritz, Daniel Theis and Dennis Schroder. In addition, they roster long-time EuroBasket forces Johannes Voigtmann and Andreas Obst as well as former NBA prospect Isaac Bonga.
The Germans will roll out a line-up that looks very modern. Defensively they’re long and switchy. That frontline of Theis and the brothers Wagner can all hold their own against a myriad of opponents, Schroder has made a late-career resurgence as a pesky on-ball defender and Obst is smart and resilient at that end of the floor. At the other end of the floor, they’ll spread the court and let it fly from deep.
It must be noted that none of the Germans, Obst aside, are noted marksmen from deep. As much as they’ll shoot, making their shots might be more of a challenge.
France
Even without Wembanyama, France is still a deep and formidable opponent.
France return the core of the team (Rudy Gobert, Nic Batum, Evan Fournier, Nando de Colo) that pushed the USA to the wire in the 2020 Olympics gold medal match, eventually losing to the Americans 87-82.
The French are a team that plays a gorgeous style of basketball, full of backcuts and perpetual motion. It’s that lack of NBA-style static play that allows somebody like Evan Fournier to look like a stone-cold killer in international play and for Rudy Gobert, who can’t score for love nor money in the NBA, to routinely score 20 points with shots from about 6 inches out.
The FIBA rules also benefit Gobert’s already all-world defense. The extra physicality allowed on the block in international play means that it’s harder to get a running leap at Gobert, in turn bringing his superior length into play.
Gobert is also an expert at grabbing the ball off of the rim, given the cylinder rule doesn’t apply to FIBA play. Finally, the more traditional interpretation of zone defences in international basketball allows France to close shooters aggressively knowing that they have a praying mantis waiting behind them.
Australia
Let’s address the elephant in the room: This Aussie team is tiny upfront.
With Andrew Bogut and Aaron Baynes retired from international ball and Jock Landale injured, the burden falls to Duop Reath (who really should be in the NBA) and the undersized pair of Nick Kay and Xavier Cooks to man the middle. As we just touched on in the France segment, size is imperative to success in international play.
That said, the Boomers tick just about every other box. They’re huge at every non-centre position led by the preternatural playmaking of 6’8” Josh Giddey. Flanked by some combination of Josh Green, Matisse Thybulle, Dante Exum and Dyson Daniels, the Aussies will be big, long and lightning-fast on the wings.
Much like Fournier, Patty Mills‘ ability to zoom off of screens and nail jumpers makes him a far more formidable FIBA baller than an NBA baller. Chris Goulding is a Mills-lite, without the NBA experience. Joe Ingles’ movements could be timed with a sundial at this stage of his career. He remains, though, an elite shooter and heady playmaker.
Canada
The Canadians haven’t qualified for the Olympics since 2000. They’ve never won a major international tournament. They’re missing Jamal Murray and Andrew Wiggins. Yet, if there is a team that can take down the USA, this might be the one.
Even without Murray and Wiggins, this team is teeming with high-end talent: RJ Barrett is a 20-point-per-game wing; Dillon Brooks and Luguentz Dort are perennial All-Defense candidates. Kelly Olynyk is the perfect stretch big for international competition, complimented by Dwight Powell’s rim running. Young 7-foot-4 Zach Edey can provide a dreadnought presence if required.
That’s before we even mention Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The 25-year-old averaged 31.4 points per game, finishing No. 4 in the NBA in scoring on his way to being named in his first NBA All-Star team this past season, in addition to earning All NBA first team honours.
When a game of basketball is coming down to the wise, it can all too often come down to one simple equation: Who has the best player on the floor? Slovenia aside, is there any other squad in the World Cup that can be confident that its best player is better than anybody the Team USA has to offer?
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