ACC 2023 Win Totals: Best Bets
The 2023 College Football season is right around the corner. With games starting up, it is time to dig into some college football betting lines and figure out which teams will overperform or underdeliver on their season win totals.
Let’s dive into NCAA football lines and look at which teams are most likely to post the most wins. The conference is currently in an interesting position with several teams that show promise heading into 2023 while others seemed destined to disappoint. That dynamic puts us in a position to find betting value on several teams.
*All lines are accurate as of 9:00 a.m. on Friday, Aug. 25, 2023.*
Florida State Over 10 Wins +115
It is difficult to not love Florida State in 2023. The Seminoles are returning 87% of their production from last season — which is pretty impressive considering they won nine games during the regular season last year.
The quarterback position will not be an issue for the Seminoles with starter Jordan Travis coming back. The offense will also return elite weapons in wide receiver Johnny Wilson and running back Trey Benson. On top of that, they made out like bandits in the transfer portal with the addition of wide receiver Keon Coleman. If that was not enough, tight end Jaheim Bell is making the move from South Carolina to Florida State.
On the defensive side of the ball, edge rusher Jared Verse, who was a projected first-round pick in 2023, elected to stay in school rather than leave for the NFL. Overall, there is a lot of love on the Seminole roster.
All of the talent on the Florida State roster makes me optimistic about their ability to get more than ten wins. The plus money makes it my favorite bet out of the 2023 ACC win totals.
Essentially, Florida State’s win total will depend on their games against LSU and Clemson. I do not think it is absurd to say they split those games. The LSU game opens the year, which makes it a little more volatile. While I lean toward LSU in that matchup, I would not be shocked if Florida State got a win. As far as Clemson goes, I like Florida State’s chances. The Seminoles will be on the road — which presents issues — but Clemson is rolling into the season with newly hired offensive coordinator Garrett Riley and relatively unproven quarterback Cade Klubnik. In the long term, I like Riley and Klubnik, but the offense may not be clicking on all cylinders in Week 4.
All things considered, if Florida State can avoid upsets and split the tough matchups we get 11 wins and hit the over. If they lose both and avoid upsets, we push. I like that bet.
Duke Over 6.5 Wins +120
Duke may be a basketball school, but first-year head coach Mike Elko got the Blue Devils to nine wins last season. Duke returns 17 starters this season, including quarterback Riley Leonard. As a sophomore, he finished with 2,967 yards, 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. As the Blue Devils roll into 2023, they will have a top-ten quarterback in the nation and a top-three quarterback in the conference. On top of that, they return a good portion of their offensive line and skill talent. In the offseason, they used the transfer portal to help establish offensive line depth.
The bet here will be for Duke to hit over 6.5 wins at +120. At plus money, that adds some nice value to this ACC win total bet.
In short, Duke was successful last season, has a proven quarterback, experienced players and a quality offensive line. There’s a lot to like.
Duke’s win total sits at 6.5 because the schedule is brutal. The Blue Devils will face Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame, North Carolina, NC State and Louisville.
I see four safe wins for Duke: Lafayette, Northwestern, UConn and Virginia. That means the Blue Devils will need to find three wins on the rest of their schedule. One of the keys to that will be getting a win over NC State. Thankfully, they will be coming off a bye against NC State and will be at home. The games against Wake Forest and Pitt are at home as well. Despite being on the road, I would label Louisville as another winnable game.
In theory, the clear losses for Duke could be Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame and North Carolina. With that being said, Duke feels like a team that could pull an upset. An experienced team with a quarterback that does not turn the ball over could certainly create chaos. The best part is that an upset is not required for the over to hit. It is still worth noting that Duke likely has more upset potential than other ACC schools.
NC State Over 6.5 Wins -120
The final bet that I like on the ACC win totals is for NC State to go over 6.5 wins. Last season, the Wolfpack secured eight wins. While the team will look different in 2023, I think they can get seven wins.
NC State will have a new look offense. In the offseason, Robert Anae was named the offensive coordinator and the team added quarterback Brennan Armstrong in the transfer portal. The combination of Anae and Armstrong proved to work in 2021 when the pair found success at Virginia. The duo should help NC State be an improved offense in 2023.
On the defensive side of things, NC State has been successful under head coach Dave Doeren. I expect that to continue. The defense will have a lot of turnover in 2023, however. It will help that stud linebacker Payton Wilson will return. In a conference without a bunch of elite defenses, NC State should be able to craft an above-average ACC defense.
In terms of scheduling, I like NC State’s path to seven wins. On the surface, UConn, VMI, Virginia, Marshall and Virginia Tech are all very winnable games. That puts us at five wins already. That leaves the Wolfpack needing two wins out of Notre Dame, Louisville, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest and North Carolina. I think that is a reasonable ask. I think they get Wake Forest and Louisville, but they have proven they will play North Carolina close. As mentioned earlier, I think Duke beats NC State; however, if I am wrong, the over for the Wolfpack seems safe and could leave us 1-1 on our last two bets.
The mix of an improving quarterback, a respectable defense and a soft schedule makes me like the idea of NC State surpassing the 6.5 wins mark. That makes it a solid bet in the landscape of the 2023 ACC win totals.
