Fantasy Basketball Impact: Terry Rozier to the Miami Heat
In case you missed it: The Charlotte Hornets traded guard Terry Rozier to the Miami Heat in exchange for soon-to-be 38-year-old veteran guard Kyle Lowry and a protected 2027 first-round pick Tuesday morning.
Rozier was officially cleared to play in Wednesday’s game against the Memphis Grizzlies Wednesday afternoon, the first night of a home-home back-to-back for the Heat; it is still unknown if Lowry will suit up Wednesday for Charlotte. Regardless, let’s dive into the fantasy basketball implications from both perspectives.
Heat:
As of this publishing, Rozier ranks just outside the top-30 among guards, registering as G33 in point formats (per ESPN). He is owned in 90.5 percent of formats, averaging 42.4 fantasy points per game (23.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.8 3-point makes, 57.4% TS%).
Rozier’s experiencing a career-high usage rate at 27.2 percent, which came in large part due to LaMelo Ball missing 21 of the team’s first 41 games due to injury. When Ball was off the court, Rozier averaged 19.5 points, 5.7 assists, 2.8 rebounds and 2.4 3-point makes. He played 873 minutes without Ball, relative to 192 with him, so he’s typically operated as Charlotte’s lead creator when he’s on the floor for much of 2023-24.
In terms of production, playing alongside Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo will likely mean regression–especially at the start. Though he could still be a decent source of scoring and passing production, as well as 3-point shooting, a byproduct of playing off Miami’s others. But it has three other 20-point-per-game scorers. You can’t expect the same scoring numbers to follow.
Where I’d immediately look toward is Adebayo: He’s putting together another career season despite being tasked with so much responsibility on both ends of the hardwood. In the 17 games he’s played since returning from a hip injury, he’s averaging 20.9 points, 11.0 rebounds and 4.7 assists.
There’s a world where his scoring receives an uptick because he’ll be operating with one of the league’s best pick-and-roll players, where he could see more 4-on-3s and 3-on-2s if teams aggressively hedge or blitz Rozier.
Tyler Herro’s attempts might also slightly decrease; he’s averaging 18.9 shot attempts this season. With Rozier sharing the backcourt, there will be more space to operate, even if the ball isn’t always in his hands. Thus, you could expect a tick-up in assists, 3-point makes and fewer turnovers, where he’s averaging 4.1, 3.3 and 2.5, respectively.
Hornets:
Terry Rozier clears the runway for LaMelo Ball, who’s having another stellar season despite battling injury.
So far, he’s averaging 24.7 points, 5.4 rebounds and 8.1 assists on 44.3 percent shooting and 37.2 percent from 3-point range, converting on 3.4 3-point makes per game. On a per-game basis, he’s been a top-6 fantasy guard, averaging 47.4 fantasy points. But as a result of being hurt half the season, he’s not high on leaderboards, ranking just outside the top-30 amongst guards (G31).
Ball averaged just 31.1 minutes since his return from an ankle sprain that sidelined him six week. But he’s still posted 24.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 7.6 assists and 3.2 steals on subpar efficiency since his return. His sheer numbers should continue to see an uptick, not only because of more minutes, but because the ball will be in hands more without Rozier.
It’s unclear how much Lowry will factor into this–if he does at all. Though sneaky buy-low guard candidates in deeper formats could be Ish Smith and rookie Nick Smith Jr., who could see a bump in overall responsibility without Rozier.
Despite their being consternation at the time regarding the selection, No. 2 pick Brandon Miller is having a productive rookie season. He’s averaging 14.9 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.2 assists in 30.5 minutes. He’s had his ups and downs, but he’s been a top-40 fantasy forward, and could see a spike in usage if more names are traded ahead of the Feb. 8 NBA Trade deadline.
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