Detroit Red Wings 2023-24 NHL Season Preview

Detroit Red Wings 2023-24 NHL Season Preview

There’s no such thing as an unimportant season for an NHL team. But some certainly matter more than others, and this is one of those years for the Detroit Red Wings. It’s been eight years since the last time they made the playoffs. De-building and rebuilding periods were necessary after the team grew stagnant trying to extend their lengthy playoff streak that ultimately ended at a quarter of a century in 2016. The Red Wings were in the lower tier of teams in the NHL, but that was understandable.

Now, though, teams that were down there with them like the Devils and Sabres are awaking from their slumbers. New Jersey won a series last year. Buffalo missed the playoffs by just one point. Detroit went from 74 points in 2021-22 to… 80 points last season. An improvement, technically, but not a meaningful one.

No matter what you think of the Red Wings roster, prospect pool or Steve Yzerman‘s work as GM of his playing team, one thing is clear. This year’s Red Wings team has to take a clear step forward. They’ve been lurking in the shadows for far too long. This is the point where teams find out if their rebuilds were a success or failure. So, what’s it going to be for Hockeytown?

Projected Line Combinations (via Daily Faceoff)

New Faces

With a whopping nine new players listed on their projected roster, Detroit could easily have the most turnover in the league. These aren’t all just depth additions, either; there are some big names, highlighted of course by Alex DeBrincat. The two-time 40-goal scorer had a bit of a down season in Ottawa but is an undeniable top-six forward who should thrive skating alongside Dylan Larkin. He might be the most talented Larkin’s played with in his eight-year career. And he isn’t the only 20-goal scorer the Red Wings brought in. Daniel Sprong thrived in a depth role in Seattle and could get a chance to showcase his wicked shot in more prominent usage for the Red Wings, even if he’s listed on the fourth line here.

Christian Fischer and Shayne Gostisbehere are fine depth additions, although they play not just different positions but totally different styles. Fischer is a standard low-event, run-of-the-mill bottom-sixer. Gostisbehere is top-30 in scoring among defensemen over the past two seasons, although he gives back a lot of what he creates defensively. Both should slot in fine in their projected roles.

The bigger question is whether Detroit is asking too much of the rest of its acquisitions. None of them are bad players, with the potential exception of James Reimer, who ranked 99th out of 107 netminders in goals saved above expected last season. J.T. Compher could be the classic free agent who gets overpaid thanks to having a career year at the right time. Compher nearly doubled his previous career high in assists, although Colorado’s on-ice shooting percentage when he was playing actually declined, so maybe his gains were legitimate. Jeff Petry was solid last season but will turn 36 in December. And Justin Holl is prone to big mistakes, which might make him a sub-optimal partner for Gostisbehere.

The combined price tag for those four players is just a shade under $16.5 million. For that amount of money in a flat-cap world, the Red Wings really can’t afford to be wrong, especially on Compher’s five-year contract.

3 Players to Watch

1. Robby Fabbri – Few players have had as many ups and downs in their career as Fabbri, a former top prospect in St. Louis who’s looked good enough to be a core piece at times. He’s also missed 106 games over the last three seasons and hasn’t cleared 65 since his rookie season in 2015-16. At $4 million, Detroit needs Fabbri to be a productive middle-six scorer, both for his sake and to help Compher and Andrew Copp settle in.
2. Jake Walman – Walman deserves to celebrate after the season he had last year. Once a throw-in in the Nick Leddy trade, Walman posted gaudy underlying numbers and helped turn Moritz Seider’s season around after he was weighed down by the anchor of Ben Chiarot early on. It will take more than one good season to truly establish himself as a top-tier defender. Two might be enough, though. An encore could make Walman one of the biggest steals in the league at $3.4 million through 2026.
3. Ville Husso – Speaking of former Blues, Husso was not the savior in goal Detroit was hoping for last season. Far from it, in fact — he actually finished three spots below Reimer in GSAE. He can’t even really blame the defense in front of him, as the Red Wings finished 12th in expected goals against per 60. It’s just one year ago that Husso played like a legitimate No. 1 goalie for the Blues, so the ability is there. But he needs to put it together or else Detroit may be back on the goalie market next summer.

Riser and Faller

Riser: Michael Rasmussen was seen as a reach when Detroit took him No. 9 overall in the 2017 Draft. Though he made his NHL debut two seasons later, his product offered little to dispel that narrative before last season. Then, Rasmussen put up 29 points in 56 games in 2022-23 with quality underlying numbers offensively and defensively. He’ll probably never be a true difference-maker, but it looks like he has a shot of settling into the role of high-end third-liner who can play up in a pinch. It’s a nice step forward from his outlook a year ago.

Faller: Ben Chiarot did what Ben Chiarot does last season, his first in Detroit. He hit people, he blocked shots and he failed to positively impact play when on the ice. Incredibly, he’s still the team’s highest-paid defender. That isn’t quite the indictment you think given Walman’s aforementioned contract and Moritz Seider’s entry-level deal running through this year. Chiarot did have success playing with Petry in Montréal. Over their final three seasons together at 5-on-5, the duo posted a 53.41% Corsi and 52.47% xGF, although they were outscored 28-23. But on a Red Wings team desperately looking to take a step forward, Chiarot is a big thing holding them back.

The Big Question

What is the bare minimum for the Red Wings to call this season a success? If the Red Wings make the playoffs, it’s undoubtedly a good year. How close can they come up short and not have fans start to wonder about the job Yzerman has done (if they haven’t already)? The Atlantic Division looks pretty tough, with everyone except Montréal realistically in the mix. And even the Canadiens improved over the off-season. Detroit added a lot of pieces, some of them good ones. But even if everybody hits, they still don’t have the upside of the proven teams ahead of them. My guess is a near playoff miss/90-point season would be good enough for fans to keep their faith. Anything less than that could get ugly.

The Verdict

In isolation, Detroit looks good enough to accomplish that goal. They’re weak down the middle behind Larkin and have some question marks at wing, although there’s enough upside at the latter position to make you feel alright. This is probably coming down to goaltending. If Husso bounces back and Reimer turns back the clock, the Red Wings have a good chance of playing meaningful hockey in April. Anything less than that, or if the more questionable new players don’t fit in, the Red Wings may have their backs against the wall a year from now.

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Advanced Stats via Natural Stat Trick and MoneyPuck.com; Contracts via CapFriendly