Corbin Burnes Is A Risky Investment In Free Agency

Corbin Burnes Is A Risky Investment In Free Agency

Corbin Burnes is considered the prized diamond of the available arms on the free agent market. When you actually dig into the numbers… I’m not convinced that’s actually the case. Burnes might actually be one of the more riskier investments out there.

I planned on typing out a bunch of numbers why but I saw this clip the other day so I’m going to kick it over to Hembo instead. You can’t hide this evidence. Everything about Burnes has been in sharp decline for several years in a row.

Is Corbin Burnes an ACE? Absolutely.
But is he break-the-bank worthy? Numbers behind my skepticism 👇 pic.twitter.com/kM8x0QPeWp

— Paul Hembekides (Hembo) (@PaulHembo) December 7, 2024

Burnes, 30, is likely going to command a price tag larger than the eight years the Yankees just gave to Max Fried. The point of this is not to tell you that Burnes sucks. That’s not my goal here today. Life is about expectations. If you’re going to drop this kind of payday for Burnes, you better be getting an ace. I’m not sure that will exactly be the case.

If you’re looking for reasons to be optimistic about Burnes, it should start with the fact that his curveball and slider are filthy. Hitters registered a whiff rate of 37.8% and 46.3% respectively. The more concerning part would be the fact that his cutter and sinker combination have been much more hittable. If the velocity declines on that and Burnes becomes an offspeed queen, is he the same guy? You have a hard time convincing me the guy we saw in 2021 and 2022 is what you’re getting.

Corbin Burnes blames pitch clock for recent pitcher injuries

Again… context is key here. Everything is price tag dependent. I really like Burnes. I’m just not crossing $200 million + for him. Not a shot I’m doing that. Not for a guy who doesn’t have a power fastball and has declining metrics across the board. You have to be very careful about handing out long term pitching contracts. If you go too deep into a bidding war, this is likely a contract you will regret during the back 9 of the deal.

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