Are the New York Rangers genuine Stanley Cup contenders?
After taking down the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2 on Tuesday, the New York Rangers currently sit atop the NHL’s Eastern Conference and third in the NHL standings with a record of 20-7-1 for 45 points. Yet Rangers fans are not exactly shouting from the rooftops about their team. Why the trepidation? Why the conservatism?
Frankly, the Rangers faithful have been here before. They’ve witnessed some excellent regular season performances over the past decade and, with one obvious exception, they’ve generally flattered to deceive some playoff time.
Last season, the Blueshirts were insipid against the untested New Jersey Devils and their spotty goaltending. Even in 2022, when the Rangers rode the wave to the conference finals, they got lucky with the Pittsburgh Penguins forced into playing third-string goalie Louis Domingue (now a part of the Rangers) for the majority of the series and Carolina suffering a host of injuries themselves.
Now, injuries are a part of hockey, but the Rangers most certainly rode their luck.
However, the good signs are undoubtedly there this season. They’ve beaten Boston twice; Vancouver and Los Angeles haven’t proven an issue. Tuesday’s win over Toronto was a gem. Artemi Panarin is playing career-best hockey. They’re clearly good. But just how good, and how much has this team improved from last season to this?
New York has traditionally been a reasonably strong 5v5 team, despite the underlying numbers. They don’t hog the puck, they don’t create all that many chances in relation to the rest of the league – the Rangers rank around the median in both Corsi and Fenwick – whilst they’re generally around league average in both shot attempts and shooting percentage. The Rangers do create quality looks through two distinct methods: Transition and east-west puck movement.
New York uses a myriad of intelligent movers and passers to manipulate open players on the weak side where they generally plant players with quick triggers and heavy shots for one-timers. This means that the Rangers are often shooting at a goalie in motion. The Rangers, no matter the coach over the past few years, have consistently been in the top five in the NHL at weak side chances created and shots at a moving goalie. In their current iteration, Mika Zibanejad (rounding into form after a very slow start to the season) is the poster boy for this style of attack.
The Rangers’ ability to strike on the counter felt somewhat stymied under former coach Gerard Gallant, especially last season’s veteran-laden playoff failure of a team. Over the past half-decade, though, the Rangers have used a roster laced with speedy forwards and a few expert outlet passers on the blue line to counterattack with precision. Those odd-man rushes are a direct result of what is inarguably the Rangers’ true strength: Defense.
Led by star goalie Igor Shesterkin, hard hitters in captain Jacob Trouba and the perennially underrated Ryan Lindgren as well as the genius of Adam Fox, the Rangers have been a team that has limited odd man rushes and then playing solid positional defense, restricting high danger chances. Interestingly, this season the Rangers have regressed a little defensively under Peter Laviolette, conceding more odd man rushes and, though there is no stat for this, dead-set brain farts.
Perhaps the Rangers, as their top players age (Fox and Shesterkin aside, all of their best players are in their early 30s), are maybe losing a little of their speed and agility? It could be an adaptation to another new defensive system. It’s worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses. All in all, the Rangers continue to be at worst, a very good 5v5 team, though perhaps not as strong as in seasons past.
New York’s special teams, however, are thriving. Led by Zibanejad and Chris Kreider – one of the league’s best with the man advantage – and quarterbacked by Fox, the Rangers power play site 3rd in the NHL at 29.79 percent and that is after a little bit of regression in the past fortnight. New York’s power play is an extension of their general offense: East/west puck movement; Zibanejad at the left circle; Kreider in the deep slot. Penalty killers know what’s coming; best of luck in stopping it.
On the penalty kill, the Rangers are 6th in the NHL at 85.26 percent, a marked improvement on last season’s middling units. The puck retention of Erik Gustafsson has helped in this regard. His composure on the puck in shorthanded situations mirrors that of Fox (and replaced it when Fox was injured) which allows the Rangers to have a calm head on the ice at all times. The Rangers have played the puck rather than dumped it on the kill so much more this campaign.
Interestingly, the Rangers commit far more penalties per 60 minutes with backup goalie Jonathan Quick on the ice, rather than Shesterkin. Thankfully Quick appears to have stumbled upon the fountain of youth on his travels from west coast to east. His play, in admittedly limited minutes, has been nothing short of stellar. His rapier-like glove hand appears to be back and practically every night he’s showing off his remarkable ability – he’s one the best at this historically – to take away the bottom corners. Quick, who turns 38 in January, is posting a 2.09 goals-against average and a .926 save percentage. The latter number is his best since 2012; the former represents a career-best.
Fortunately, the boyhood Ranger has been so stellar since the usually all-wolrd Shesterkin has looked somewhat off-colour all season long. The 2022 Vezina winner is putting up career-worst numbers in practically every category. The fact that he’s still, statistically speaking at least, a league-average starter whilst amid a career nadir only demonstrates the standards that he usually reaches.
In 2022, the Russian led the league in save percentage vs expected at plus-.224 and was 11th in the NHL last season (+.078). This season he sits in 31st at an alarming minus-.049.
The Rangers have not been shy in bringing in playoff rentals over the past couple of campaigns, with varying results. The core of the roster, however, has stayed pretty much intact. Kreider, Panarin, Zibanejad, Fox, Trouba and Shesterkin form a solid veteran core that can go toe-to-toe with any top 6 in the NHL.
Where the Rangers have fallen over is the next generation coming through, with the notable exception of the 25-year-old Fox. That lack of production from a cadre of highly touted youngsters has left the Rangers short on depth, especially at forward, over the past few years. The trickle-down effect of that is burning picks to bring in those rentals.
Last season saw the general hockey-watching public take note of Lindgren’s importance as a stay-at-home safety blanket. He’s not particularly big, he’s not a gifted skater and it will be a shock if he ever reaches 25 points in a season, but his toughness and positioning are magnificent. He allows his teammates to get creative knowing he’ll be there to mop up.
Alongside him on the blue line, K’Andre Miller has emerged as a genuine two-way contributor. The former winger is swift on his skates, built like a truck and possesses a bullet of a shot. Still only 23, he’s been a key to the Rangers’ rise.
Up top, New York has a trio of highly-rated first-round picks whose production couldn’t be further apart. Filip Chytil broke out last season with 45 points in 74 appearances and was on a similar scoring pace this season before injury struck. After a positional shift to the right wing, Alexis Lafreniere is finally starting to look like the player the Rangers envisioned when they took him 1st overall in 2020.
This writer predicted a breakout season for both Lafreniere and in particular Kaapo Kakko this season. Even before he was felled by injury, Kakko’s return of three points in 20 games wasn’t encouraging, even if he has turned into a very solid defensive forward. Fortunately, Will Cuylle has taken on the mantle of hard skating, big-bodied young wing.
He’s not scoring freely – five goals in 29 games – but he’s all action on the ice. He looks to make things happen, unlike the more talented Kakko, who frankly looks frightened to make a decision when on the puck.
We took a look at the Rangers roster additions a few weeks ago and it’s fair to say that they are a net positive, so the Rangers are certainly deeper than last season. That helps as far as regular season wins are concerned. It also means that the team can absorb injuries with less consternation.
Cuylle and the veteran Blake Wheeler have stepped in to do what Kakko was supposed to do. Chytil’s absence has been covered by a career year for Vincent Trochek and, of late, the unexpected production of Jonny Brodzinski since his call-up from the AHL.
Most importantly for the Rangers, Gustafsson was able to do enough to replicate enough of what Adam Fox – only the team’s best player – gave to the Rangers on a nightly basis. Injuries are, of course, a part of the game. New York’s increased depth has made them less of a pain so far this campaign.
So it’s all looking good for the Rangers, right? Well, maybe. But there are some signs of concern.
Chief amongst them is Shesterkin’s form. As good as Quick has been in New York, the Rangers will only go as far as Igor can take them come playoff time. Like any true contender, the Rangers rely on their goalie to steal a game or two. This version of Shesterkin is still good enough to win a playoff round, perhaps even two. He’s not playing to a Stanley Cup-winning level right now – which needs to change.
As mentioned, the power play has seen some regression to the mean over the past fortnight. Whilst that might hold and the team stay at or around a 30 percent clip, any drop towards the mid-20s takes away the Rangers’ surest source of goals. Likewise, the penalty kill is playing well above its levels of the past few seasons. It needs to stay that way.
The Blueshirts have also been unusually lucky in one-goal games. Coming into their game against Toronto, the Rangers have won nine games by a single tally, including three overtime wins and a shoot-out triumph. Those are stacked against just a single one-goal loss, a 5-4 shoot-out reverse to Minnesota back on Nov. 5. That, surely, is unsustainable.
You could also question if the Rangers have another gear to find in the playoffs. They’re playing so well right now and coach Laviolette has a leader who doesn’t believe in “flipping a switch.” Rather, it’s Laviolette’s mantra that every game should be treated like a playoff game. That attitude certainly helps in random regular season games and maybe the primary reason behind the Rangers’ dominance of tight contests.
When the playoffs arrive, though, can New York step it up again? When you treat every game like it’s your last, where do you go when you need to find another level? How do you tap into that extra little bit of motivation? Essentially, will the Rangers plateau? The obvious area for post-season improvement is Shesterkin resuming regularly scheduled programming.
All in all, this version of the Rangers is superior to those of the past few years. With a high-quality, veteran core augmented by emerging young talent, a pedigreed goalie pairing and a cup-winning coach, New York’s time is now.
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