UFC 286 Best Bets

UFC 286 Best Bets

UFC 286 is here which means it is time to get some bets placed. From a betting perspective, the card is a unique one considering there are a handful of very live underdogs. The difficulty comes in trying to figure out which underdogs to put your money on and which ones to avoid. Plus, the prop action is appealing on this card. Here are three of the best bets that you can make on UFC 286.

*All lines are taken from BetMGM and are accurate as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Friday, March 17.*

Roman Dolidze +210

The UFC 286 main card is set to open with an entertaining clash between Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze. Vettori will be the favorite in the bout as he sits as a -275 favorite while Dolidze is a +210 underdog. I like the dog in this one. 

Dolidze will have a lot of finish upside in this fight. On the feet, he throws a lot of power punches while mixing in other weapons. The uniqueness and unorthodox nature of his striking help him land heavy strikes too. Similarly, on the ground, Dolidze is a crafty fighter as he manages to utilize BJJ and leg attacks to deal damage or reverse position. Vettori will not be an easy fight though. The ‘Italian Dream’ is a tough and durable fighter that has a strong grasp of the basics. That is not an insult. Vettori has great wrestling and strong boxing fundamentals. 

I really like Vettori as a fighter. With that being said, I think someone with a more unique skill set that can pull him outside of basic exchanges can find success. Dolidze is that exact type of fighter. If you throw his power into the discussion, he could upset Vettori. All in all, the finishing upside and uniqueness of Dolidze make him a very live +210 underdog.

Gunnar Nelson ITD -110

At UFC 286, UFC veterans Gunnar Nelson and Bryand Barberna are set to share the octagon. Nelson is a notable favorite as he sits at -375 while Barberena is the +280 underdog. The play for this fight is for Nelson to win inside the distance at -110.

I really like Nelson to win this fight by submission. Nelson has nine wins in the UFC and seven have come by submission. The odds say he should easily win this fight, so why wouldn’t he do so by his most probable win condition? Furthermore, from a stylistic perspective, the submission seems likely. Baberena is coming off a submission loss where he was easily taken down by Rafael dos Anjos. Nelson could implore the same exact game plan to find a win.

Now, if you are curious why the play is Nelson inside the distance and not Nelson by submission, it is because the inside the distance prop is -110 while the submission prop is +100. That difference in value is not worth risking a ground-and-pound finish or a fluke injury win.

UFC 286 Preview and Predictions

Chris Duncan vs. Omar Morales U1.5 Rounds +120

On the UFC 286 prelims, Chris Duncan and Omar Morales are paired up in what seems to be a banger. The bout is closely lined as Duncan sits at -115 while Morales is -105. It is not worth picking a side in this fight though. The play is under one and a half rounds.

This fight should be a lot of action which means the finish upside is strong. Duncan is the definition of all offense and no defense. He has a lot of power, but he also is not afraid to get hit and he has suspect holes in his defense. In total, nine of his ten professional fights have ended inside the distance. On the flip side, Morales has had a mixed bag of finishes in his career. Although, the reason the under is the play is because of Duncan. Morales is active enough to where he should play into Duncan’s fighting style.

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