2024 NL Wild Card Preview: New York Mets v. Milwaukee Brewers

2024 NL Wild Card Preview: New York Mets v. Milwaukee Brewers

October baseball is here! We previewed our two AL Wild Card series here. Thus, let’s dive into the NL Wild Card, where the No. 6 New York Mets take on the No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers, who cruised to their third NL Central crown in four seasons! Without further ado, let’s dive into it!

New York Mets Overview:

The New York Mets entered September in the thick of the NL Wild Card race with the Diamondbacks, Padres, Braves, Cubs and Cardinals. In the final month of the season, they featured the second-best record in the NL with the league’s third-best run differential–trailing only the Braves and Dodgers.

It took until the very last day in the regular season–no, literally, the last day–in a doubleheader against Atlanta to clinch their second postseason appearance in seven years. All they needed to do is win one, though that win came in an 8-7 thriller in Game 1 after trailing 3-0 through seven frames.

New York finished the season with the seventh-best wRC+ and seventh-most runs, though it was their rotation of Jose Quintana, Tyler Megill, Sean Manaea, David Peterson and Luis Severino who propelled them late in the season. Quintana only surrendered two earned runs across 25 innings; Megill had seven in 25.2; Peterson had 10 in 28.2. That’s quality work, no matter how you slice the pie.

The issue come October is their bullpen, which is pretty depleted after its two-game set against Atlanta. Jose Butto and Ryne Stanek are both capable of closing, but I don’t think I trust them in close games with the pressure tightened.

Francisco Lindor continued to play at an MVP-caliber level, despite having back soreness midway through Sept., with valuable contributions from Francisco Alvarez, Pete Alonso and Mark Vientos. Will they be able to patch together enough runs? We’ll see.

Milwaukee Brewers Overview:

The Brewers were an awesome story this season. They came out of nowhere after Craig Counsell flocked to The Windy City and they traded Corbin Burnes to Baltimore.

Nevertheless, the Brewers had the NL Central on a stranglehold for much of the season, winning 93 games for just the third time since 2011. They took the division lead on May 9 and didn’t look back, finishing 10 games up on both St. Louis and Chicago.

William Contreras developed into one of the best catchers in baseball, sporting an .831 OPS (129 OPS+), 23 home runs and 92 RBIs in 155 games. Backstops who can rake and play nearly every day without much fault don’t grow on trees.

Their rotation limped its way throughout 2024. Milwaukee suffered injuries to Wade Miley, Robert Gasser and Bryse Wilson, while also being without Brandon Woodruff for the entirety of 2024 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery last fall. Injuries also hit their lineup to the likes of Christian Yelich, Rhys Hoskins and Jackson Chourio, but that did not stop this team from an improbable division title.

They leveled off in September (13-13, plus-12 run differential) after a blistering hot August (19-9, +57!), but they are winners of five of their last seven entering October.

Biggest Key To Win Series?

Brewers: Win the HR battle

The Mets finished sixth in homers while the Brewers lounged near the middle-of-the-pack. The Brewers can manufacture runs in myriad ways, especially with running the basepaths well, but the team who typically hits the most home runs in a game–or series–comes out on top.

Mets: Length from starting pitching

The hook is typically shorter in short series, but New York can’t afford its starters to go only 4-5 innings in a short series and expect to survive right now. It needs length from its starters.

Prediction: Brewers in 2

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