2024 AL Wild Card Series Preview: Detroit Tigers v. Houston Astros

2024 AL Wild Card Series Preview: Detroit Tigers v. Houston Astros

October baseball is back! To tip off the postseason slate, the No. 6 Detroit Tigers, clinching their first postseason berth since 2014, will square off with the No. 3 Houston Astros, who clinched their seventh AL West Title over the last eight seasons! Without further ado, let’s dive into our first of two AL Wild Card series previews!

Detroit Tigers Overview:

This series features two teams looking on the outside midway through the 2024 season. Let’s start with the Tigers, who were eight games below .500 (55-63) and 13.5 games back in the AL Central when Aug. 10 rolled around.

They were on track for their 10th straight missed postseason. All of the sudden, a middling offense rose above water while Tarik Skubal led a lights-out pitching staff down the stretch; Detroit finished atop baseball in ERA (2.73) and ERA- (68) with the third-best FIP (3.40) over its final 45 games.

The Tigers rose from eight games below .500 to 10 games above in the snap of a finger. Skubal finished with baseball’s first full triple crown (in a full season) in over a decade. Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson, Parker Meadows, Riley Greene and Matt Vierling combined to hit 33 home runs with 108 RBIs and a 132 wRC+ over the season’s final two months. It all jelled together for Detroit at the perfect time.

For the entire season, the Tigers were a below-average offense. But there’s something to be said about getting hot when it matters most, and Detroit has done just that. It won 31 of its final 44 games; over that span, it had series wins over Baltimore (twice), Kansas City (sweep) and the Yankees. That’s not nothing.

Houston Astros Overview:

The Astros opened 2024 losers of 19 of their first 26 and looked as dead as a doornail in mid-June. They were seven games below .500 and 10 games back in the AL West on June 19 despite sporting baseball’s fourth-best offense.

Injuries were piling up with Cristian Javier and Jose Uriquidy having their seasons cut short due to Tommy John Surgery with Tucker landing on the IL with a shin contusion, causing him to miss three months. Regardless, Houston persevered.

It won 10 of its next 11 games and 13 of its next 15, trimming the lead in the AL West by eight games. They didn’t look back. From June onward, they posted a 63-40 record with plus-101 run differential.

Their pitching staff, most importantly, turned around a sluggish start despite the revolving door of arms. They tied Seattle with MLB’s best ERA (3.44) over the final four months, in addition to finishing second in strikeout rate (25.8K%) and batting average against (.222), third in ERA- (87) and fifth in WHIP (1.19).

Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Yusei Kikuchi and Ronel Blanco all posted ERAs below 3.00 over that span; Josh Hader returned to his dominant self as closer while the back of the bullpen was consistently spectacular. They’re currently clicking on all cylinders, which a dangerous formula for success at this time of year.

Biggest Key to Victory?:

Tigers: Get to Houston early and often

As I just highlighted, the Astros’ pitching staff has been among baseball’s best over the last month. Don’t let them get to their horses in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. Strike early and often–be aggressive!

Astros: Don’t let Detroit hang around

Confidence is fleeting in October. Momentum matters. Don’t let Detroit hang around, or you might see yourself going home earlier than anticipated.

Prediction: Astros in 3

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