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2024 AL Wild Card Series Preview: Kansas City Royals v. Baltimore Orioles

Matt Hanifan / MLB / October 1, 2024

Orioles Royals — (Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images)

2024 AL Wild Card Series Preview: Kansas City Royals v. Baltimore Orioles

October baseball is here! In the second of two AL Wild Card series, the No. 5 Kansas City Royals will square off with the Baltimore Orioles. Without further ado, let’s dive into it!

Kansas City Royals Overview:

The Kansas City Royals clinched their first postseason berth since winning the World Series in 2015 this year. They improved by 30 wins–their biggest season-to-season improvement (over a 162-game season) in franchise history by nine wins.

That, however, didn’t come easy. The Royals didn’t clinch a playoff berth since Game 160 while spending all but one game behind the Cleveland Guardians for the AL Central lead.

The Royals were lucky enough to have an AL MVP-esque season from do-it-all shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who slashed .332/.389/.588/.977 with 32 home runs, 109 RBIs and 31 stolen bases on the season. The 24-year-old was only one of two Royal bats with above a 115 OPS+–the other being Salvador Perez (in his age-34 season, mind you).

The offense struggled significantly in September, posting MLB’s worst wRC+ by 12 percentage points. Kansas City has also had two separate seven-game losing streaks since Aug. 27 and finished the month with their lowest run total (74) over a single month since April of 2022.

Their pitching staff was a fringe top-5 unit over the last two months, but will that be enough if the offense can’t score enough? That remains to be seen.

Baltimore Orioles Overview:

After dealing for Corbin Burnes before the season, the Orioles were viewed as the presumptive AL Favorite.

Coming off a monstrous 101-win season, it didn’t quite work out that way. Throughout the season, they jostled with the New York Yankees for the AL East lead. Though a mid-September spill (2-8 W-L over 10) put them five games back in the race–too much to overcome late in the season.

Even after the offense barely held its head above water over the final two months of the season, Baltimore still finished the season second across baseball in home runs (235) and isolated power (.186), third in wRC+ (115), fourth in runs scored (786) and OPS (.751) and 13th in strikeout rate (22.0K%).

They are led by Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser and Adley Rutschman; Baltimore has the firepower to turn a series on its head at any moment. Outside of Burnes, I worry about their pitching and whether or not it can hold up over a short series.

After the All-Star break, Baltimore ranked No. 18 in ERA (4.30) and K-BB% (14.5%) and No. 17 in FIP (4.05). That’s largely due to an insufficient, unreliable bullpen, but there are still plenty of question marks to feel comfortable at this time of year.

Biggest Key To Win Series:

Royals: Produce offensively outside of Witt

If Baltimore was smart, they would make everyone outside of Witt beat them. Kansas City needs multiple other answers offensively if they want to steal two on the road.

Orioles: Give Burnes, starters leads early

While Kansas City’s offense hasn’t been reliable, they have a good stable of arms in Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Brady Singer. Don’t let yourself rely on your bullpen late in close games.