2023 Super Bowl: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles player prop picks
The 2023 Super Bowl will be duked out between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, Feb. 12. It’s the most-watched sporting event in America each year and one of the most gambled on sporting events. There are bets as far as the eye can see, from touchdown props to what side of the coin will be on the opening toss. It’s a sportsbook’s dream.
With that said, let’s dive into some of my favorite player props — with all Philadelphia Eagles odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook — one week out from the showdown!
(Disclaimer: I’ve self-proclaimed myself as Vendetta’s worst bettor. Maybe that will change in the future, maybe it won’t. But that’s the reality of the situation. I’m bad … really bad. Most know this. You should, too. Fade or ride with me at your own discretion.)
Jalen Hurts u49.5 rushing yards (-114)
Hurts has not rushed for 40 yards since suffering his shoulder injury in Week 15 against the Bears — when he rushed for 61 yards on 17 carries against a bad Bears run defense — opting to stay out of harm’s way more often than not. Plus, he’s logged less than 49.5 rushing yards in eight separate occasions, and I don’t expect that to change against a Steve Spagnuolo defense that was middle-of-the-pack in rush defense DVOA (15th) this season. If Spagnuolo is hyper-aggressive on long down-and-distance situations, there’s a chance that Hurts breaks a few loose, however.
Both teams to score in 1st quarter (+102)
The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles were two of the most productive first-quarter offenses this season. The Chiefs scored either a touchdown or field goal on 52.8 percent of their first-quarter drives, the second-highest percentage in the league, while the Eagles sported a 47.1 first-quarter scoring percentage, the fourth-highest. Both were also in the top-five in first-quarter yards per play. Plus, both teams have scored at least once in the opening quarter in four of the last five Super Bowls. At worst, all they need is one field goal apiece. With how productive both offenses are, that’s more than attainable at good value.
Travis Kelce o7.5 receptions (+114):
Many of the receiving/rushing props for Kansas City aren’t available because of injuries to Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney. So, depending on who’s active could sway money one or way or the other, affecting future value. Regardless, I still believe Patrick Mahomes will rely on his favorite target in Travis Kelce — who’s caught 21 passes in their two postseason games — more often than not, especially if they fall behind. Expect him to get a high target share.
A.J. Brown or Miles Sanders first TD (+410):
The Eagles have scored first 13 times (including postseason) this season; Kansas City, for reference, has scored first 10 times. So the odds are that Philadelphia strikes first, though most of that is dependent upon the coin flip. Hurts and Sanders lead with three first-scores apiece, but I don’t expect to be incredibly active with legs, as I argued above.
Thus, I believe that either Sanders is prime to get touches, especially if the Eagles get into the redzone. And Brown has not scored since Week 17 against New Orleans, with last week marking the first time all season he’s gone three straight weeks without scoring. It’s feasible that Hurts targets their leading touchdown target in such situations.
Favorite Same Game Parlay (+274):
- Philadelphia Eagles +3.5
- A.J. Brown 60+ receiving yards
- Isiah Pacheco 40+ rushing yards
The Eagles, who have a more complete roster both offensively and defensively, are 16-1 this season with Hurts behind center in 2022. In the off-chance Philadelphia does lose, I think the most-likely outcome would be on a last-second field goal.
Once again, I think Nick Sirianni and Hurts will make it an emphasis to get Brown involved early-and-often; the 6-foot-1 wideout’s logged 60 or more receiving yards in all but six games (including postseason), so it’s a more-than-reasonable benchmark for him.
And if Philly has one weakness, it’s their run defense. Christian McCaffrey rushed for 84 yards (on 15 carries) last week when everyone knew he get a bulk of the touches after Brock Purdy got injured. Pacheco did rush for only 26 yards last week, but received a higher snap share than Jerick McKinnon and has logged at least 40 rushing yards in 10 of his previous 12 games.
I played this parlay a little bit on the safe side with just three legs, but at nearly 3-to-1 odds, it’s pretty good value!
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