2023 Pac-12 Tournament Preview and Predictions
The Pac-12 Tournament is right around the corner, tipping off on Wednesday, March 8. The No. 2 team in the country, UCLA Bruins, nabbed the conference’s regular season title. The Bruins finished the regular season 27-4 (18-2 Pac-12) followed closely by the 25-6 (14-6) Arizona Wildcats. As things currently stand, the Bruins will most likely be a 1-seed and the Wildcats will probably be a 2- or 3-seed in March Madness. However, the two squads are really all the Pac-12 has to show this year when it comes to serious tournament teams.
Below is the 2023 Pac-12 Tournament bracket which takes place from March 8-11 in Las Vegas.
Pac-12 Tournament Overview
The Pac-12 Tournament has 11 teams competing for a chance to be conference champions and win an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. The tournament layout gives the top four seeds — (1) UCLA, (2) Arizona, (3) USC, and (4) Oregon — first-round byes.
UCLA and Arizona are seemingly poised for a third matchup this year, but this time it should be for the Pac-12 Championship.
Still, this tournament provides important opportunities for USC, Oregon and Arizona State if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. USC is around a double-digit seed right now in most bracketology projections and a good conference tournament run could propel them towards a single-digit seed.
Meanwhile, Oregon and Arizona State, which are both on the bubble for March Madness, will need deep tournament runs to salvage an NCAA Tournament birth.
Sleeper Team to Win: USC Trojans
As I have stated, it seems like UCLA and Arizona are on a crash course to see each other in the championship game. However, after a slow start in conference play, USC has impressed of late.
The Trojans have won six of their last seven games, with their only loss coming at home against Arizona. That is the type of momentum a team wants to take into their conference tournament. The Trojans are getting carried by their backcourt of Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson. In his last five games, Ellis is averaging 26.6 points on 49% shooting from the field and 45.9% shooting from beyond the arc. Over that same stretch, Peterson is averaging 12 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4 assists.
These two will need to keep up their great play if they want to make some conference tournament magic. USC and coach Andy Enfield have put themselves in a solid position to make the tournament, and one win should solidify their bid. However, if they were to pull off upsets over Arizona and UCLA en route to a conference championship, that would arguably make them one of the hottest teams in the country.
Players to Watch
UCLA Bruins: Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Arizona Wildcats: Azuolas Tubelis
USC Trojans: Boogie Ellis
Oregon Ducks: N’Faly Dante
Washington State Cougars: Mouhamed Gueye
Arizona State Sun Devils: Desmond Cambridge Jr.
Utah Utes: Branden Carlson
Washington Huskies: Keion Brooks
Colorado Buffalos: Tristan Da Silva
Stanford Cardinals: Spencer Jones
Oregon State Beavers: Jordan Pope
California Golden Bears: Lars Thiemann
First Round Predictions
No. 5 Washington State vs. No. 12 California
This first-round matchup should be a pretty simple game. Washington State is a talented team that is hot rolling into the tournament, having won their last six games. California has had an abysmal season and are currently amid a 15-game losing streak. The Cougars have impressive wins against Arizona, Oregon and USC and they swept California in their season series.
Washington State has three different scorers averaging over ten points a game and California currently does not have a healthy player on the roster averaging over ten points. The Cougars have the better offense and defense and I think they should cruise to a round-one win.
Prediction: Washington State 70, California 55
No. 6 Arizona State vs. No. 11 Oregon State
Oregon State dropped both games to the Sun Devils during the season. Furthermore, Arizona State has a good defense that has a knack for causing turnovers. Their offense also averages 70.7 points per game compared to Oregon State’s 61.4 per game.
I think the Sun Devils will be able to create some turnovers and control the boards thanks to forward Warren Washington, who averages 6.8 rebounds a game. Arizona State finished the season against Arizona, UCLA, and USC. I expect them to take advantage of the step down in competition and for guard Desmond Cambridge Jr., who averaged 19.5 points against the Beavers this year, to stay hot against them.
Prediction: Arizona State 72, Oregon State 67
No. 7 Utah vs. No. 10 Stanford
These teams are pretty evenly matched and they both had seasons where they underachieved. Stanford averages 69.8 points per game and gives up 67.7 points a game. Utah averages 68.9 points per game and they give up 63.5 points per game. The Utes are a little stronger on the glass in part due to skilled center Branden Carlson, who averages 7.4 rebounds a game.
These teams played two competitive games this year with Utah winning by five points and Stanford winning by six. However, Utah is on a five-game losing streak and if Stanford can get to the line as they did in the second game and take care of the ball, then they will be in good shape. I like forward Spencer Jones to stay hot and I don’t think Utah’s guard Lazar Stefanovic will have a third 20-point performance against the Cardinals.
Prediction: Stanford 74, Utah 70
No. 8 Washington vs. No. 9 Colorado
This like a lot of 8-9 matchups will be a tough one to pick. Both teams average 69 points per game on 43% shooting from the field. Both teams finished 16-15 overall and 8-12 in Pac-12 conference play. However, Washington won both regular season meetings with one by ten points and the other by 3 points.
Washington has five players in the eight to ten-point range but the bulk of their offense is carried by forward Keion Brooks, who averages 17.8 points per game. The Huskies are having a problem covering the three-point line in their past couple of games but Colorado is struggling to knock down their threes. I think the Buffaloes might lose the three-point battle for a third time against the Huskies.
I think that Washington can limit their turnovers and that Brooks is due for another nice outing against Colorado.
Prediction: Washington 68, Colorado 67
Second Round Predictions
No.1 UCLA vs. No. 8 Washington
I think this should be an easy game for UCLA. The Bruins swept the season series with one of the games being decided by 25 points. Also, UCLA’s defense, which is ranked second in the nation, according to KenPom, will be too much for the Huskies. I like Mick Cronin and his guys to rest up and get past Washington with relative ease.
Prediction: UCLA 72, Washington 62
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 10 Stanford
If this prediction is right, then that means Stanford pulled off the upset in the first round. However, their tournament will probably end here. Arizona has five different players averaging over ten points including forward Azuolas Tubelis who is averaging a staggering 19.9 points per game. Stanford upset Arizona in the regular season so I expect the Wildcats to come into the matchup with a lot of unfinished business. Also, I don’t expect the Cardinals to shoot 55% from 3 again, so give me Arizona.
Prediction: Arizona 85, Stanford 76
No. 3 USC vs. No. 6 Arizona State
This is an extremely important matchup up as USC can solidify their spot as a ten seed with a win and Arizona State can get into the field with an upset.
USC swept Arizona State in the regular season including a three-point win in the last game of the season. As much as I would not mind seeing an upset, I just think USC is the more complete team. Their defense through two games has caused Arizona State to be extremely inefficient. Also, I like guard Boogie Ellis to stay hot after his last 28-point performance to end the season and if he gets any help in scoring from his teammates the Trojans will get the job done.
Prediction: USC 73, Arizona State 68
No. 4 Oregon vs. No. 5 Washington State
Oregon split the season series with Washington State. I think this game can go either way but I like the Ducks’ ability to control the boards. I will take the talent of big man N’Faly Dante and guard Will Richardson to propel the Ducks.
Dante averaged 16 points and 9 rebounds in two matchups against the Cougars. Richardson will be the real key to an Oregon victory because if he gets things cooking then the Washington State defense is in for a long night.
Prediction: Oregon 72, Washington State 69
Semifinals Predictions
No. 1 UCLA vs. No. 4 Oregon
This matchup could be cause for some concern because even though UCLA swept Oregon this year UCLA has lost its last four matchups with Oregon. The Bruins had guard Jaylen Clark, who is second in scoring for the team, for both wins but his status is uncertain right now. However, I think UCLA will continue to rebound better than Oregon and the Bruins will continue to force turnovers. Also, I like Jaquez to take over and prove to be too much offense for Oregon to handle.
Prediction: UCLA 67, Oregon 60
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 3 USC
Arizona swept USC in the regular season but the last win was only by six points in the second to last game of the season. In their last face-off, guard Ellis exploded with 35 points and USC controlled the boards but it still resulted in a loss.
I think the Wildcat offense is too powerful for the Trojans as Arizona notably scored 87 points and 81 points in two matchups. I do not think USC will have enough offense to be competitive unless Ellis has another crazy scoring outburst. However, you can always rely on a well-rounded attack from Arizona with scoring coming from a variety of starters and players off the bench.
Prediction: Arizona 85, USC 73
Pac-12 Championship
No. 1 UCLA vs. No. 2 Arizona
This tournament has been a lot of chalk but that makes sense for how the Pac-12 has looked this year. UCLA vs. Arizona is a fantastic matchup and it is one that I would not be opposed to seeing again in the NCAA Tournament. These teams split the season series against each other but if Jaylen Clark is out this is where I see it catching up with UCLA.
I think UCLA is the better team but if Clark misses, I think the Arizona offense will be too much for UCLA. Both teams have solid starting fives with good bench depth, but I will take Arizona to contain Jaquez just enough and for Tubelis and center Oumar Ballo to get the job done on the offensive end. I have the Arizona Wildcats as Pac-12 Champions.
Prediction: Arizona 77, UCLA 70
***
