2023 ACC Tournament Preview and Predictions
Reports of the ACC’s demise may have been slightly exaggerated last year — the conference did put three teams in the Elite Eight and two in the Final Four — but the conference has staggered and stumbled throughout the 2022-23 season. If you like roller coasters and extreme variance, you’re in luck because the ACC has it in droves this year.
Boasting no single elite team — though the co-regular season champion Miami Hurricanes are likely the cream of the crop — the 2023 ACC Tournament is sure to produce a ton of chaos over the next five days. Let’s get into it.
One player to watch from each team
- Miami (FL): Jordan Miller. The Hurricanes, which boast the ACC’s highest scoring offense, have a plethora of weapons, though Miller, averaging 15.1 points and 6.1 rebounds, is the key to a run in Greensboro.
- Virginia: Kihei Clark. After what feels like a million years, Clark is playing in his fifth and final ACC Tournament. Can he guide the Cavaliers to their first conference tournament title since 2018?
- Clemson: Hunter Tyson. The Monroe, North Carolina, native clearly saved his best for last, averaging a career-high 15.7 points and 9.5 rebounds per game in his final season for the Tigers.
- Duke: Tyrese Proctor. Forward Kyle Filipowski may have earned Freshman of the Year honors, but make no mistake, Proctor is Duke’s engine. They’ll go as he goes.
- Pittsburgh: Federiko Federiko. The sophomore center has anchored the Panthers’ interior in the absence of John Hugley and will now look to help the team secure a bid to the Big Dance.
- NC State: Jarkel Joiner. NC State’s backcourt is electric, but Joiner has really found his form of late, pouring in at least 15 points over the last six games, including a quartet of 26-plus-point outings.
- UNC: R.J. Davis. At the risk of beating a dead horse concerning the Tar Heels’ NCAA Tournament prospects, I won’t. Nevertheless, if UNC is going to avoid becoming the first preseason No. 1 since the field expanded to 68 to miss the NCAA Tournament, Davis is going to need to step up.
- Syracuse: Jim Boeheim. Yes, Boeheim is not a player, but in what could very well be his last conference tournament, I’m most intrigued to see if the Orange implode in Greensboro.
- Wake Forest: Tyree Appleby. The former Florida Gator became the first player in ACC history to lead the conference in points and assists and not win ACC Player of the Year. Regardless, if the Demon Deacons are making a run this week, it’ll be because of the 6-foot-1 guard.
- Boston College: Quinten Post. The ACC’s Most Improved player is currently day-to-day with a sprained ankle, according to coach Earl Grant. Simply put, the Eagles will need Post’s production to potentially make some noise this week.
- Virginia Tech: Hunter Cattoor. After nabbing ACC Tournament MVP honors last year, can Cattoor help fuel another Hokies run?
- Florida State: Matthew Cleveland. He’s the leading scorer and rebounder for what has been an underwhelming Seminoles team. We’ll see if Cleveland and FSU can catch fire in Greensboro.
- Georgia Tech: Miles Kelly. He’s Georgia Tech’s leading scorer (14.2 ppg) and rattled off six straight games of at least 12 points to close the regular season.
- Notre Dame: Cormac Ryan. Here’s to hoping “Scoremac” makes an appearance in Greensboro.
- Louisville: El Ellis. The best player on the worst team in the conference, not much else to be said.
Sleeper to win the ACC Tournament: NC State
It seems by now that the Wolfpack have been heralded as everyone’s ACC Tournament sleeper, so I figured why not hop on the train?
Coach Kevin Keatts, like a couple other coaches in this conference, has taken advantage of an unruly and roller coaster ACC this season, cooling his extremely hot seat as a result. After making the tourney in his first season in Raleigh (2017-18), the Wolfpack have since sputtered, and it looked as if Keatts would be axed following the 2022-23 campaign. Well, Keatts has likely saved his job and has this NC State squad positioned very, very close to securing an at-large bid.
In all likelihood, the Wolfpack need just one win in Greensboro to secure a trip to the Big Dance, but why not win it all? Boasting the conference’s highest scoring offense and a pair of All-ACC second team nods in Joiner and Terquavion Smith, this team is built to catch fire. Combining the backcourt with Keatts’ mountain down low, center D.J. Burns, and NC State has all the tools to win four games in four days, or at the very least, make the tournament title game.
First Round Predictions
12. Florida State vs. 13. Georgia Tech
The Seminoles won the lone meeting between these teams all the way back on Jan. 7. Two months later, Florida State and Georgia Tech prepare for battle in the first game of the ACC Tournament. The Seminoles have dropped six of their last seven games, while the Yellow Jackets have won five of their last seven in conference play. This game may very well come down to recent run of form, but I’m leaning on coaching in this battle and taking Leonard Hamilton and FSU.
Prediction: Florida State 74, Georgia Tech 69
10. Boston College vs. 15. Louisville
Even with Post’s status up in the air, I’d be shocked if the Eagles don’t emerge victorious from this one. The 2022-23 Louisville Cardinals have been a dumpster fire and not even Ellis’ most outstanding game could propel them towards a win in the ACC Tournament.
Prediction: Boston College 73, Louisville 66
11. Virginia Tech vs. 14. Notre Dame
The Hokies have underwhelmed to a certain degree this season, but most of the core from last season’s ACC Tournament champion roster is still in uniform for coach Mike Young. Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish have struggled to muster anything positive in coach Mike Brey’s final season. In Virginia Tech and Notre Dame’s lone meeting this season, the Hokies nabbed a victory in a high-scoring affair, 93-87. I’d expect a similar pace and offensive display on Tuesday.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 79, Notre Dame 71
Second Round Predictions
8. Syracuse vs. 9. Wake Forest
Everyone’s favorite curmudgeon, Jim Boeheim, appears to be nearing his final game as head coach of the Orange. Still, he seems confident he can dictate the timeline of his departure from Syracuse. Regardless of Boeheim’s job security at the moment, the Orange meet the Demon Deacons in the first game of the second round. The two teams met just once this year — last Saturday — with Syracuse winning 72-63. Justin Edwards had 27 points and 20 rebounds just a few days ago against this Wake Forest frontcourt, but I think Appleby and the Demon Deacons get this one done in a close battle.
Prediction: Wake Forest 76, Syracuse 72
5. Pittsburgh vs. 12. Florida State
The buck stops here for this Seminoles team. The Panthers are squarely on the bubble and likely need a pair of victories — maybe more — in Greensboro to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. That desperation will make it an uphill battle for Florida State, even though Leonard Hamilton’s bunch won the lone regular-season meeting. Expect Jeff Capel and Co. to get the job done here.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 73, Florida State 64
7. UNC vs. 10. Boston College
Oh, how the (preseason) mighty fallen. From sending Coach K packing not once, but twice, to now dreading a Selection Sunday outlook in which the ACC Tournament title is not in its possession, the last 12 months have been a wild ride for these Tar Heels. Though coach Hubert Davis has tried his best to deny what likely needs to be accomplished by UNC in Greensboro to secure an NCAA Tournament berth, this squad is in total desperation mode. The Tar Heels’ triumvirate of Armando Bacot, R.J. Davis and Caleb Love will need to capture some more March magic if they don’t want to be on the wrong side of history — and I expect them to win this game at the very least.
Prediction: UNC 81, Boston College 67
6. NC State vs. 11. Virginia Tech
These two met just once in the regular season, as Terquavion Smith’s 22 points and Jarkel Joiner’s 21 points lifted the Wolfpack to a 73-69 victory. These two teams’ offenses are nearly identical, separated by just two spots in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric — 34th for Virginia Tech, 36th for the Wolfpack. Neither team turns the ball over much, both squads shoot between 34-36% from beyond the arc and are driven by electric guard play — Smith and Joiner for the Wolfpack and Sean Pedulla and Hunter Cattoor for the Hokies. Backcourt production aside, the big determining factor in this one will be the play of NC State center D.J. Burns and Virginia Tech big man Grant Basile. Whoever wins that battle likely wins the game.
Prediction: NC State 77, Virginia Tech 68
Quarterfinals Predictions
1. Miami (FL) vs. 9. Wake Forest
Ah yes, nearly chalk all the way to the quarterfinals, I’m sure that will totally hold up over the first two days of action. Nevertheless, Miami and Wake Forest’s lone meeting this season came in the form of a high-scoring 96-87 win for the Hurricanes. I’d expect a similar pace and output again, with Miami’s guard and wing play overwhelming the Demon Deacons once more.
Prediction: Miami (FL) 87, Wake Forest 78
4. Duke vs. 5. Pittsburgh
The Blue Devils needed a furious second-half comeback to erase an 11-point deficit at the intermission to beat the Panthers in January. Fast forward to the present and Duke has won six straight and eight of its last 11 games. Coach Jon Scheyer has had his team improving all year, and now fully healthy, spectators and analysts alike might finally see this team’s full potential.
It starts on the defensive end for the Blue Devils, which have held 27 of their 31 opponents below their scoring average. Tyrese Proctor has fully assumed primary point guard responsibilities, Jeremy Roach has thrived in an off-ball roll, and the tandem of Kyle Filipowski and Dereck Lively down low has dazzled on both ends. On sheer account of this Duke team findings its form, I think the Blue Devils pull out a win over the Panthers.
Prediction: Duke 69, Pittsburgh 65
2. Virginia vs. 7. UNC
Interestingly enough, Virginia and UNC’s offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, per KenPom, are eerily similar. The Cavaliers rank 73rd nationally in AdjO and 34th in AdjD, while the Tar Heels are 68th in AdjO and 43rd in AdjD. These two teams split the regular season meetings and a potential Thursday clash would likely see another tightly contested affair. Virginia would be the presumptive favorite, so that being said, do you believe in miracles? Because I evidently do… give me North Carolina in round three.
Prediction: North Carolina 74, Virginia 70
3. Clemson vs. 6. NC State
The Tigers likely need to win at least two games to jump off the NCAA Tournament bubble and firmly into the field. Though finishing third in the ACC is an incredible accomplishment for coach Brad Brownell, losses to Louisville, South Carolina and Loyola-Chicago may very well doom this squad’s chances of making the Big Dance. The final nail in the coffin will be a quarterfinals loss to the Wolfpack. This NC State team feels like a March buzzsaw and though the Tigers swept the Wolfpack in the regular season, it’s so incredibly hard to beat a team three times in a row. On that note, and NC State’s guard play rising to the occasion, the Wolfpack will emerge victorious.
Prediction: NC State 81, Clemson 71
Semifinals Predictions
1. Miami (FL) vs. 4. Duke
In two regular season meetings, the home team protected home court. Now in the Greensboro Coliseum, where the bulk of fans for this game in particular will be in Duke blue, the overwhelming majority in the crowd — assuming these predictions hold true — will be cheering against Jon Scheyer’s bunch. Though it might not be the most significant, the crowd could become a factor for either squad. Despite Duke’s recent run of form, I think Miami’s guard play and offensive prowess proves too much for this young Blue Devils squad and the Hurricanes pick up a decisive second victory in the third meeting.
Prediction: Miami (FL) 74, Duke 66
6. NC State vs. 7. UNC
What a potential nightcap on Friday in the ACC Tournament semifinals. For college basketball fans in North Carolina, there might not be a better end result, spare an unlikely round three clash between Duke and UNC in the ACC Tournament title game. It’s been 40 years since Jim Valvano’s Cinderella run to NC State’s second NCAA Tournament title, and it was all kickstarted by winning the ACC Tournament that season. In a year that’s seen the two teams make a host of postgame jabs, including Keatts’ rivalry comment, it would be fitting to see UNC’s NCAA Tournament hopes stymied by its two biggest rivals in Duke and NC State.
Prediction: NC State 78, UNC 73
2023 ACC Tournament Title Game Prediction
1. Miami (FL) vs. 6. NC State
This game, in all likelihood, would be a 40-minute shootout. We would get incredible individual matchups between Isaiah Wong and Terquavion Smith, Nigel Pack and Jarkel Joiner, Norchad Omier and D.J. Burns and that’s all without mentioning Jordan Miller. These two teams met all the way back on Dec. 10 in Coral Gables, with the Hurricanes winning 80-73. In front of a pro-Wolfpack crowd in the Greensboro Coliseum, I’m taking Keatts and NC State to pull off the remarkable feat of winning the ACC Tournament. Party like it’s 1983, folks.
Prediction: NC State 83, Miami (FL) 81
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