2023 MLB Home Run Derby Betting Guide
I don’t care what anybody says, the Home Run Derby is the best part of All-Star weekend. Betting the derby is a whole different animal. Before we dig in too deep here, make sure to check out the 2023 MLB Home Run Derby odds right here! Let’s go over everything you need to know so that we can hopefully make you some money.
The Ballpark
The derby this year is in Seattle. Unlike other parks, the dimensions at T-Mobile Park are relatively the same to all parts of the field.
Left Field – 331 ft (101 m) Left-Center – 378 ft (115 m) Center Field – 401 ft (122 m) Right-Center – 381 ft (116 m) Right Field – 326 ft (99 m) Backstop – 69 ft (21 m)
Lefty, righty, it’s not really going to matter. No strong advantage for either side.
Eliminating Guys That Probably Won’t Win
If you look at the past home run derby winners, they all usually have one thing in common. The dudes with size and heft that consider themselves real home run hitters are the guys that usually always win. You wear down faster than you think. You want to pick someone that can hit homers even if they don’t get everything on it. The only skinny non-power hitters to win are guys like Ken Griffey Jr and Miguel Tejada years and years ago.
Mookie Betts and Randy Arozarena are both under 200 pounds. Don’t pick them to win. Simple as that.
The Bracket
Maybe this is just me but half the battle is just getting through the bracket. Don’t forget, the home run totals reset after each round. You really just need to beat the guy in front of you and advance. Could a guy like Pete Alonso get upset early on by Julio Rodriguez? If so, can Rodriguez really maintain that kind of momentum while the home crowd is at his back for three straight rounds? It’s a lot to ask.
With these new rules, I like to pick guys that have a chance to get to the final and maybe can squeeze it out once they’re there. The left side of the bracket looks far easier than the right side.
The Pick
Is Pete Alonso really going to win for a third year in a row? Especially with all the crowd buzzing facing Rodriguez in the first round? It’s a tall ask. I think there needs to be two ways to go about this. You should have a favorite pick and a darkhorse pick that you like.
Vlad Jr. should be the favorite. He’s back in the Derby for the first time since 2019 and finished as the runner up that year. His father won the Derby and at some point he will too. It feels about as good of a time as ever to pick Vlad. There is a reason why the odds have him listed as a favorite.
However, if you’re going to go with a dark horse pick, I like Adolis Garcia. The vibes are there. Garcia was a late addition to the All-Star team and has hit 23 homers heading into the break. He’s athletic but thick with power. I worry that he has too much swing-and-miss for this event but the Rangers’ outfield can hit for some serious power. At +725, I think that’s far and away the best pure value bet. Plus he’s on the right side of the bracket.
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