2023 AL Wild Card Series Preview: Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Another October has arrived and with that comes the 2023 MLB Postseason. 162 games up and 162 down with the 12 best teams in MLB left to play for a World Series Championship. The AL Wild Card Series is between the best offenses in the American League with the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays, kicking off on Oct. 3rd at 3 p.m. EST. Let’s dive into this series and try to predict who will move on to the ALDS to face the 101-win Baltimore Orioles.
Rangers Overview:
For the Texas Rangers, their offense has carried them to this point. Featuring five All-Star stars in their lineup, The Rangers led the AL in runs (881), home runs (233, tied with the Twins), batting average (.263), on-base percentage (.337) and slugging percentage (.452). Spearheading that offense is the duo of Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, combining for 62 home runs and 196 RBIs in 2023. Seager sported the second-best batting average (.327) in the AL and would most certainly be our AL MVP, if not for Shohei Ohtani. With a supporting cast of Adolis Garcia who mashed 39 homers, Jonah Heim becoming a top 5 catcher and Josh Jung producing at a Rookie of the Year level before injury–Tampa Bay may have its hands full in a 3-game series.
With the loss of their ace Jacob deGrom for the season, as well as Max Scherzer and Jon Gray out to start October weakening their rotation, Texas still has reliable arms such as Nate Eovaldi, Jordan Montgomery (Game 1 Starter), and more to hold down the rotation. Not to mention the Rangers have a top-3 defense to back up those arms.
Rangers’ recipe for success?
Seager, to me, will be the catalyst for the Rangers to get on a postseason run. He’s seemingly increased his level of production in every series throughout his career, especially the damage he did en route to becoming the 2020 World Series MVP with the Dodgers. Marcus Semien has a .371 batting average with 13 hits, two home runs, four RBIs and seven runs scored in nine games in the postseason in his career.
This will be his first look at postseason ball since his days with the Athletics. The real question mark will be how postseason rookies Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung, Leody Taveras and Jonah Heim can adjust to the bright lights of October being the most important at-bats of their careers to this point. However, the postseason track record of Bruce Bochy may be enough to combat such concerns.
Rays Overview:
Ah, Tampa Bay. The model of consistency for any small market club. This marks consecutive seasons with a Wild Card berth with hopes of improving from the disappointment that was last year‘s loss to the Cleveland Guardians.
Remember when I mentioned Corey Seager having the second-best batting average in the A.L.? Tampa Bay’s Yandy Diaz is the league leader (.330) after a breakout 2023. Diaz is one of many quality hitters in a Tampa Bay lineup that the average fan may be unfamiliar with outside of St. Petersburg, Fla.
Mentioning St. Pete is important because the series is taking place in the Rays’ home park–where Tampa Bay owned a 53-28 record, the best home record in MLB next to the Dodgers. I will keep in mind the 2022 Cardinals who had that same home record and were swept out of the postseason by the Phillies.
Tampa Bay’s offense will stack up well with Texas despite injuries to Brandon Lowe and Luke Raley. Diaz was one of six Rays with 20-plus home runs in the regular season including Brandon Lowe. They have power up and down the lineup–Jose Siri and 22 of his 25 home runs this season came when he was batting in the 7-spot or later in the Rays’ order. Plus, I’m not forgetting about playoff hero Randy Arozarena and his 11 postseason home runs.
Rays’ strengths:
The biggest strength Tampa Bay has going for them is their lights-out bullpen. A bullpen consisting of Pete Fairbanks, and Colin Poche, among others, was top 2 in Opponent Batting Average (.223), and WHIP (1.19). In addition, a top-heavy rotation led by Tyler Glasnow and Zach Eflin. Injuries to most of Tampa Bay’s better arms like All-Star Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, and Drew Rasmussen may come back to bite them. Don’t even get me started on Wander Franco.
Despite that, the Rays are as formidable of a playoff opponent as any. However, I can’t ignore Tampa Bay’s recent postseason history. The pair of postseasons following their 2020 American League pennant have both resulted in early exits and that was at a time when most of their better players were healthy. I am interested to see what this team is made of.
Things to keep in mind:
– In the head-to-head matchup, the Rangers went 4-2 against Tampa.
– Rangers batted .219 vs. the Rays this season
– The Rays average 4.17 runs per game vs. Texas
– Rangers have the worst save percentage at 48 percent of any postseason team
Rangers vs. Rays Verdict
Altogether this series has the potential to be an absolute slugfest. I don’t care where the games are being played if two of the best offenses in baseball are competing; expect runs to be scored regardless. Both these teams have the potential to go very far in this postseason. Sometimes it just comes down to who’s hot at the right time. With that being said I am confident that pitching will determine who wins this series. Who can quiet who’s bats long enough to survive? With both teams down quality arms heading into this series, that makes Game 1 all the more important. Will the inexperience of Texas’ juggernaut of an offense result in disappointment or will Tampa Bay’s recent postseason misfortunes continue? I cannot wait to find out.
Final verdict: Rangers in 3.
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