2023 AFC Wildcard Preview: #5 Cleveland Browns at #4 Houston Texans

2023 AFC Wildcard Preview: #5 Cleveland Browns at #4 Houston Texans

In the first of six playoff games on this Wild Card weekend, we will have an AFC showdown between the No. 4-seeded Houston Texans and No. 5 Cleveland Browns at 4:30 p.m. EST on NBC.

These two teams met in Houston on Week 16 (without C.J. Stroud for Houston) which resulted in a 36-27 Browns victory. Will history repeat itself? Let’s hop into each team’s keys to victory plus our prediction for Saturday’s contest.

(All stats are courtesy of TeamRankings.com, Football Reference and rbsdm.com unless stated otherwise.)

How the Browns can win:

Put pressure on C.J. Stroud:

Historically speaking, rookie quarterbacks making their first playoff start don’t fare well. Some have performed better than others–see 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy against Seattle versus, say, Mac Jones in 2022–but Stroud is a different beast. He’s cool, calm and collected. Thus, the best way to rattle him is to generate pressure in the pocket. Cleveland blitzes at an average rate (27.7 percent), but generated the seventh-best pressure rate in the regular season, spearheaded by one of the best pass rushers in the sport in Myles Garrett. The Texans allowed the 10th-most sacks and, if you’re Cleveland, don’t want Houston to find any rhythm. An effective pass rush ruins just that.

Get the ground game going:

From Weeks 15-17–the prime of “Flacco Mania” in Cleveland–the Browns were running the rock at the 11th-lowest rate. It was also amongst the worst in the league, averaging 2.8 yards per carry with the fourth-lowest EPA/play over that span. Houston’s defense is also much stronger against the run; to close games in a playoff setting, you have to run the ball effectively. If Cleveland can’t do that–keeping the ball out of Stroud’s hands and draining clock–their chances at winning significantly decrease on the road.

Win the turnover battle:

Flacco’s thrown at least one interception in each start; Stroud’s thrown five in 15 starts. Cleveland’s tied for seventh-worst in turnover margin (minus-7); Houston’s tied for the fifth-best (plus-10). Winning the turnover battle could ultimately make the difference.

How the Texans can win:

Contain Myles Garrett:

Aligning with what I said above, the Browns have the game’s best pass rusher (by far). Protecting Stroud has to be paramount. Garrett’s a game-wrecker. He singlehandedly wrecks drives and can change momentum at any given moment. Cleveland will likely move him around and give Houston different looks, but if you’re able to limit his effectiveness, the more likely it is that you can sustain drives and produce points.

Finish drives:

Speaking of producing points, the Texans’ offense with Stroud was fairly explosive and productive throughout the season. Against Cleveland’s stout defense, it can’t afford to leave points on the board. It allowed touchdowns on north of 70 percent of the time they were in the red zone this year, the worst mark in the NFL. Houston’s offense, conversely, finished in the middle-of-the-pack in red zone drives ending in TDs (54.7 percent; 16th). It doesn’t take a genius to figure this out, but if you finish drives with six, you put yourself in a far better position than if you didn’t.

Win the turnover battle:

Same rationale for Houston. Scoring points and possessing favorable opportunities will be at a premium, so if Stroud can limit mistakes in his first playoff start, Houston’s chances at upsetting Cleveland become much greater.

Prediction: Browns 27, Texans 21

The Texans were possibly one play away from being eliminated from contention. Rookie quarterbacks are also 9-15 straight up in the playoffs since the turn of the century; it will be close, but I also think Cleveland’s the more complete team with a better defense and ground game, which I think will make the ulimate difference.

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