2023-24 NBA Season Preview: Miami Heat
The 2023-24 NBA season is officially here! Today, we are going to be previewing the Miami Heat, who are coming a historically great postseason run after a shaky 2022-23 regular season!
What happened last year?
The Miami Heat exited the 2021-22 season as the top seed in the East and was one game shy of its second NBA Finals appearance in three years. Miami lost P.J. Tucker in the offseason without replacing him, but went from the best 3-point shooting team to a bottom-five shooting team despite possessing practically the same collection of shooters. Thus, Miami regressed to a bottom-six offense paired with a top-10 defense.
Miami appeared in 54 clutch games — games defined by a moment where the point differential was within five points with less than five minutes left — going 32-22, and finishing 44-38. It came three minutes shy of being eliminated from the play-in to the Chicago Bulls, but persevered and ended up as the No. 8 seed.
It blew past the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in five games, downed the New York Knicks in six games and bested the Boston Celtics in the East Finals in en route to advancing to their second Finals in four seasons. Miami got eliminated by top-seeded Denver, who won their first-ever NBA Title.
Offseason recap:
Most of the Heat offseason was swirled in Bradley Beal and Damian Lillard trade rumors and ultimately ended up with neither. They also lost two starters, Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Lakers, respectively, plus they also traded away an injured Victor Oladipo to the Oklahoma City Thunder to clear up second apron space.
It turned out to be an incredibly disappointing offseason. Nevertheless, the Heat were able to reunite with Josh Richardson on a two-year minimum, as well as bringing in Thomas Bryant and re-signing Kevin Love in free agency.
Projected Starting Five?
Kyle Lowry, G — The point guard is the Heat’s thinnest position, and with no Vincent, Lowry becomes the de-facto point guard. He had a poor 2022-23 season and regressed as a (willing) scorer and point-of-attack defender.
Tyler Herro, G — Herro has improved in every year of his career and has gone through the gauntlet of trade rumors since he’s been a rookie. Herro is also expected to garner additional ballhandling responsibility because of Miami’s lack of point guard depth. He averaged 20.1 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists last season on 43.9 percent shooting, including 37.8 percent from distance and an NBA-best 93.4 percent from the free-throw line.
Jimmy Butler, F — Butler has aged like fine wine. The 34-year-old is coming off his most productive season and averaged 25.6 points on *checks notes* only 13.2 shot attempts after the All-Star break? Simply absurd efficiency, while playing All-NBA caliber defense. Butler’s not one for awards or attention, so I’m not expecting him to do everything he can to play 65 games if he doesn’t have to, but I can see a world where he surpasses that threshold and earns another All-NBA award in 2023-24.
Kevin Love, F — Love’s shooting last regular season post-thumb injury was a disaster. He’ll be in a limited role this season, but I’m expecting his shooting to reach water level once again–similar to his playoff stretch where he shot 37.5 percent from distance.
Bam Adebayo, C — Adebayo, arguably the most underrated defender in basketball right now, took more strides offensively last season with his aggressiveness. He averaged 20.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.2 steals last season, and is only improving in every facet of his game.
Notable Reserves:
Josh Richardson, G — I’ve made the case that I think Richardson could be a more impactful player, individually, than Max Strus and Gabe Vincent. I stand by it. When healthy, he fits best alongside Herro.
Haywood Highsmith, F — There’s a world where Highsmith is the team’s full-time starting 4 by the end of the season. Even if he’s not, he’s going to have a huge role in this rotation as a 3-and-D specialist who will operate as a DHO hub, generate myriad deflections and secure crucial (offensive) rebounds.
Caleb Martin, G/F — We could argue all day whether or not Caleb Martin should’ve won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP. But Martin tasked with being a hybrid wing off the bench and not a full-time starter helped buoy his offense. He could take another leap as he’s entering a contract year with the Heat.
Thomas Bryant, C — His defense is still significantly below average, but Bryant is way more polished offensively than both Cody Zeller and Dewayne Dedmon. That’s an automatic win for Miami.
Biggest X-Factor?
The Heat were minus-4.6 points per 100 possessions with Adebayo off the floor in non-garbage-time situations during the regular season in 2022-23; that number dipped to minus-2.3 points per 100 in the postseason, though Miami mitigated those minutes with Butler being on the floor (most of the time).
Bryant or Orlando Robinson will be surrounded by a better collection of two-way players–such as Martin, Highsmith and Richardson–to assist on the back-line, but if Miami’s frontcourt behind Adebayo can at least hold the fort down, Miami’s will have a stronger regular season.
Season projection?
I believe the Heat will finish as the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference.
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