2023-24 NBA In-Season Tournament Group Stage: Best Bets
The first inaugural 2023-24 NBA In-Season Tournament is officially upon us, starting with the group stage, which will be every Tuesday and Friday through November. As you navigate the odds, consider leveraging insights from trusted NBA selections by Doc’s Sports to complement your strategy. Now, what are a few of the best bets for the group stage? There’s no better person to tell you that than me (that’s actually not true; practically everyone at this company would give you better betting advice. But that’s neither here nor there.)
Let’s hop into it!
(All odds are courtesy of FanDuel, and are updated as of 6:00 p.m. EST on Nov. 3)
Group A East:
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Atlanta Hawks
- Indiana Pacers
- Detroit Pistons
Favorite to win group: 76ers (+155)
My pick to win group: 76ers
Best Bet: Pacers to win Group A (+550)
This group is likely a stay away from me anyway because I don’t love any team’s value, but is it crazy to think Indiana wins this group outright? I don’t think so. Despite getting completely clobbered by Boston–which is putting it lightly–in the three games the Pacers have had with Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers have posted a 120.7 offensive rating and a plus-9.4 NET Rating, which would rank No. 3 and 4 in the league, respectively.
It’s an incredibly small sample, for what it’s worth, but Haliburton will be available for their first game Friday against Cleveland. The real question is: Can Indiana beat Philadelphia on the road? The two will square in their IST group stage game on Nov. 14–a second leg of a Pacers-76ers back-to-back. Indiana’s the best value play in my opinion, and Atlanta’s (+500) not far behind.
Group B East:
- Milwaukee Bucks
- New York Knicks
- Miami Heat
- Washington Wizards
- Charlotte Hornets
Favorite to win group: Bucks (-120)
My pick/bet to win group: Knicks (+340)
Best Bet: Jalen Brunson to average 25 points, six assists in Group Play (+340)
So far this season, Brunson is averaging 20.6 points and 4.4 assists on 49.0 percent true shooting, over eight percentage points lower than his career average and over 10 percentage points from what it was a season ago, when he averaged 24.0 points and 6.2 assists over a 68-game sample. I expect that to progress back to the mean. Plus, the Bucks, Heat, Wizards and Hornets rank No. 29, 28, T-17 and 25 in defense, respectively. You’re getting good value for Brunson at +340 against four defenses that have been subpar to begin the season.
Group C East:
- Boston Celtics
- Brooklyn Nets
- Toronto Raptors
- Chicago Bulls
- Orlando Magic
Favorite to win group: Celtics (-150)
My pick/bet to win group: Celtics
Best Bet: Celtics to go 4-0 in Group Play (+145)
No team outside of the Denver Nuggets has looked better than the Boston Celtics. They sport the NBA’s most proficient offense and 5th-best defense. Boston’s biggest kryptonite over the last two seasons has been Orlando, but I still see this current squad besting the feisty Magic on the road. Toronto hasn’t been a pushover, either, which could throw a wrench in this wager. But I think getting near-1.5-to-1 odds on Boston clean sweeping the East’s worst group is the best value play available, all things considered.
Group A West:
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Phoenix Suns
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Utah Jazz
- Portland Trail Blazers
Favorite to win group: Suns (+115)
My pick/bet to win group: Lakers (+195)
Best Bet: Lakers to win Group A
The Lakers haven’t been without their early-season bumps, either, but they’ve consistently played the best basketball of the bunch. Memphis has looked awful; Phoenix just lost back-to-back home games to the Spurs, albeit one without Devin Booker; the Jazz have looked solid, but haven’t been able to generate many stops; Portland ranks in the bottom-third in NET Rating (minus-5.4), even though No. 2 pick Scoot Henderson is beginning to figure out.
The Lakers’ biggest drawback is having Phoenix on the road, which comes as the fourth-and-final game of a road trip, but I still have confidence that Anthony Davis, LeBron James and this Lakers squad will navigate the waters well. The Lakers sweeping this group outright (+600) is juicy, too.
Group B West:
- Denver Nuggets
- New Orleans Pelicans
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Dallas Mavericks
- Houston Rockets
Favorite to win group: Nuggets (+170)
My pick/bet to win group: Nuggets
Best Bet: Nuggets to win Group B
I don’t know who will win this group. For the sake of conversation, I’ll say Dallas (+360) and New Orleans (+440) are two very good value plays, but I don’t see any of those teams slowing down Denver, who has the league’s 9th-best offense and 6th-best NET Rating. Might I add, Dallas currently tops them in both categories, placing No. 2 and No. 4, respectively, but defending Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray is a completely different ballgame I want to see Dallas accomplish first and foremost.
Group C West:
- Sacramento Kings
- Golden State Warriors
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- San Antonio Spurs
Favorite to win group: Warriors (+185)
My pick/bet to win group: Thunder (+300)
Best Bet: Warriors to go 4-0 (+700)
Warriors open against the Thunder, who will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Friday due to a knee injury. They’ve also narrowly escaped past Sacramento twice already and will face both Minnesota and San Antonio at home. They’ve looked like they’re coming for throats, so a 7-to-1 long shot isn’t the worst value play in the world, though health would be their biggest concern right now.
Who do you think will win the group stages of this year’s in-season tournament? Let us know in the comments!
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