2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1 Preview: Rangers vs. Penguins
The New York Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins have met four times in the playoffs in the salary cap era, and the general story has largely been the same. The Penguins have sported an elite trio of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang, plus some pretty strong supporting members, so long it’s hard to remember the Penguins without their big three. But beating the Rangers was always a challenge because it meant beating one of the best goaltenders in the world consistently enough to have a shot at advancing. And it’s not like the Rangers didn’t have some help in front of him.
The Rangers team that takes the ice these days arguably has more high-end talent than any of those other teams. But this, like the Ranger teams of the late 2000s and throughout the 2010s, is built around their European stud of a goalie. No, it’s not Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes anymore. But Igor Shesterkin’s 2021-22 was just as good, if not better, than Lundqvist’s incredible time with the Blueshirts. Obviously one spectacular season doesn’t make Shesterkin the better Ranger. But an incredible playoff run, one that ends all of the playoff heartbreak that defined the Lundqvist era, could. Rangers fans would at least love to find out.
The first step to pulling off that run is a task that challenged and even overwhelmed prime Lundqvist at times: shutting down the Penguins’ high-powered offense. And while back in those days it seemed inevitable that Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang would stay in black and gold forever, that reality reaches its most precarious point whenever the Penguins’ season ends. Malkin and Letang are both unrestricted free agents at season’s end, and, as Rangers fans know with Lundqvist, sometimes you have to say goodbye to a franchise face. But that’s Pittsburgh’s problem in the summer; their current one is advancing in the playoffs for the first time since 2018. What does this star-studded first-round series have in store for us?
New York Rangers (52-24-6, No. 2 Metro) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (46-25-11, No. 3 Metro)
Recent History: This is the fifth time the teams have met in the playoffs since 2008 and fourth since they were placed together in the Metropolitan Division in 2013-14. The two most recent of those meetings also came in the first round. That 2014 series is also the lone one that didn’t end in five games. The teams traded first-round buttkickings of each other in 2015 (Rangers winning 4-1) and 2016 (Penguins winning 4-1). New York erased a 3-1 series defeat in 2014 en route to the Stanley Cup Final. Pittsburgh handedly defeated the Rangers 4-1, also going to the Final that year. They of course also won the Cup in 2016 after knocking off the Rangers in Round 1.
The Last Time Here: The Penguins won the one-off East Division last year, which usually makes a team the heavy favorite. But people were on to the trickiness of playing the Islanders in the playoffs by then. Sure enough, poor goaltending and New York’s stifling defense sent the Penguins home in a six-game upset. It’s been a much longer wait to return for the Rangers; this is their first proper Stanley Cup Playoffs appearance since 2017. They also faced a division winning team that year (Montréal) and also took them down in six.
Season Series: Usually the regular season series isn’t all that relevant for predicting a playoff series victor. But perhaps there’s a little more weight on that here since all four Rangers-Penguins meetings took place on Feb. 26 or later, including three after the trade deadline. All were very low-scoring, with just one featuring more than five total goals. A Tristan Jarry shutout carried the Penguins to a 1-0 victory in the first meeting between these clubs. The Rangers did win the other three meetings, two close-calls and one a 5-1 rout. Pittsburgh did have a higher expected goals percentage in every game except that one, though.
New York Wins Because: Offense wins games, defense wins championships, but goaltending wins playoff series. Only one goaltender since 2002 has won the Hart Trophy (Carey Price, 2015), and while Igor Shesterkin probably won’t win it this year, the fact that he’s even in the conversation tells you everything you need to know. The 2014 4th round (!) pick has lived up to all of the billing when he came over from the KHL in 2019-20. He was a big reason why the Rangers even qualified for the bubble in 2020 in the first place. And he is the heart and soul of the 2021-22 team, too.
How does a team with a 47.04% expected goals share (24th in the NHL) make the playoffs? Have a goaltender who stops 34.1 goals above expected. Moneypuck.com’s GSAE model goes back to the 2007-08 season, and exactly two other goaltenders have had a higher single-season mark than Shesterkin’s: 2010-11 Tim Thomas (39.6) and 2016-17 Braden Holtby (35.3). Holtby also played in nine more games than Shesterkin did this year. So you could argue Shesterkin’s had the second best season for a goalie in the last fourteen years. And after plateauing a bit in March (only a .914 SV%), Shesterkin was as strong as ever to finish the season. Yes, this is his first taste of true playoff action (he did play one game in the bubble). But there’s no reason to think the 26-year old won’t be up for the task.
Of course, one player, even an all-world goaltender, isn’t enough to lift a team to the second round, or even get them to the playoffs in the first place. We talk a lot about there are fewer penalties in the playoffs, and there are, but I do feel that oversells the drop in how much special teams matter. They are still important, and the Rangers are very good at them. The three-headed monster of Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, and Adam Fox really shine here for the Rangers. Panarin and Zibanejad are two of the highest volume shooters on the PP, and Fox is an outstanding distributor. Panarin and Fox are particularly strong on entries.
They’ll face a tough task in Pittsburgh, who ranks 3rd in the NHL with an 84.4% PK. However, by expected goals against per 60, the teams actually grade out very similar; Pittsburgh is 11th, New York is 14th. And the Rangers are a much greater short-handed threat than the Penguins. New York is 8th in short-handed expected goals for per 60, while Pittsburgh checks in at 29th. The goal-based results are similar; the Rangers have scored eight shorties (T-9th), while the Penguins have just three (T-28th). Special teams opportunities may be limited, but they can often be momentum shifters, and the Rangers should feel good about their chances in them.
But the majority of hockey is played at 5-on-5, and for most of the season, the Rangers have really struggled in this area. The Rangers have the 25th best controlled entry percentage, which is very important, because controlled entries generally account for about twice as many shot attempts per 60 as uncontrolled entries (dump-ins). Of course, a team that recovers dump-ins at a high rate can be more than successful. Unfortunately, for the Rangers, they’re 21st in that regard.
They do a decent job of turning the looks they do get into scoring chances. But not as good a job as Pittsburgh. And things aren’t much better defensively; only Chicago and Arizona have a higher carry against percentage. That means the Rangers don’t hold the blue-line well, yielding plenty of controlled entries into their zone. And other than Fox, they aren’t too great at breaking out of their own zone either.
But before you regard this as a team completely defined by Shesterkin, special teams, and Chris Kreider’s shooting percentage heater, remember it’s not how you start, but how you finish. The Rangers were one of the more aggressive teams at the trade deadline, adding depth at the wing and some help for their back-end. And it’s paid off in a big, big way. While I can’t get super into the micro-specifics of it since Corey Sznajder’s data is just for the whole season, the Rangers’ bigger play-driving numbers look significantly better over the last month. Before the deadline, the Rangers were sporting a 45.19% Corsi, or shot attempts percentage (30th) and 45.47% expected goals share (28th). Since, they’re rocking a 53.26% Corsi (6th) and 52.44% xG% (8th). That’ll play.
Note: This graphic is from the NHL Network and is as of April 13. The numbers on the right column are based off 11 games of data; New York’s final 8 games are unaccounted for.
Pittsburgh Wins Because: The sum of their parts is greater than New York’s, and they’ve proved it all season. While the Rangers have come on strong down the stretch, Pittsburgh has consistently been near the top of the NHL. At least since they got Crosby (and later Malkin) back from injury and recovered from an understandable 5-6-4 start. The Penguins are just a tick behind the Rangers since the deadline in xG% after making a fairly significant add up front of their own in Rickard Rakell. And while the combination of Andrew Copp, Frank Vatrano, Justin Braun, and Tyler Motte can help any team, they’re unlikely to change them from one of the league’s worst play-driving teams into one of its best. Take a 19-game sample size with a grain of salt, kids.
The Penguins stars need no introduction, but I’ll give them one, anyway. In 60 combined playoff games against the Rangers, Crosby, Malkin, and Letang have combined for 54 points, 42 of which have come from the two big centers. Both of those two clocked in with Corsi and xG shares in the 54% range, ranking near the top of Pittsburgh’s strong play-driving roster. Only Connor McDavid, Brad Marchand, Mat Barzal, Aleksander Barkov, and Mark Stone set up more shots per 60 than Crosby, who is more than capable of generating offense both off the rush and the cycle at a very high level. Malkin is one of Pittsburgh’s top forecheckers as well.
While one could criticize the Rangers as being too dependent on their stars, Pittsburgh’s best players set an example the rest of the team follows. It’s very surprising that the Penguins haven’t advanced the last four years because the supporting cast has arguably been as strong as ever. Yes, goaltending has played a major role in that the last two seasons (more on that later). But a team with Jake Guentzel (one of the league’s top shooting threats, both from a volume and finishing standpoint), Bryan Rust (another dangerous scoring threat who will go to the net), zone-entry wizard and one-time point-per-game player Evan Rodrigues, and more up front certainly profiles as a contender. Pittsburgh is 3rd in the NHL in controlled entries per 60, 6th in entries leading to scoring chances per 60, and has a top-10 power-play. That’s pretty tough to stop.
The Penguins may not have as much star-power on their backend, but their defense grades out pretty strong as well. It’s a unit that simply doesn’t make mistakes, a theme that also applies to the team up-front. All seven of Pittsburgh’s regular to semi-regular defenders have fewer botched retrievals (of dump-ins) and failed zone exits per 60 than league average. While the Rangers rely heavily on Fox, Pittsburgh has three defense pairs it can comfortably pencil in.
The steady as ever Dumoulin-Letang duo leads the charge, just as they have for the last half decade. Their underlying numbers aren’t as strong as the pairs behind them. But I feel comfortable chalking that up to the high level of competition they have to face. Both are still driving play and complement each other very well. Letang is a bit more on the aggressive side at breaking up entries, while Dumoulin is steady defensively and strong on breakouts.
Behind them are two less heralded but very successful pairs in their own right. A couple years ago, no one had ever heard of John Marino, Marcus Pettersson, or Chad Ruhwedel. And all they knew about Mike Matheson was his terrible contract. All four are playing some of the best hockey of their career right now, a testament to Mike Sullivan’s systems. The top-pair is actually a bit weak at holding the blue-line. But the rest of the defense, especially Marino, thrive in that area. His pairing with Pettersson ranks is tied for 10th in the NHL in expected goals against per 60.
Matheson is playing like the player Florida thought they had in 2016, while Ruhwedel has gone from a useful No. 7 to a very solid No. 6. Pittsburgh’s bottom two pairs have a combined 54.13% xG share. The Penguins drive play, drive opposing teams mad, and usually drive home with two points in their pocket.
Players to Watch For:
NYR: We often talk about the playoffs as a time where unlikely heroes emerge, where depth players become household names. But is it possible for a player to be a household name to be an unlikely hero? Alexis Lafrenière at least has to be the closest thing to that. The 2020 No. 1 pick, the Rangers’ reward for losing to Carolina in the 2020 Qualifier Round, hasn’t had a dream start to his NHL career. He’s scored just 52 points in 135 career games, with no jump in production from year one to two. He was even healthy scratched down the stretch. Yeah, he responded by doing this, but is there reason to be concerned?
The long-term answer is probably not. The thing with Lafrenière is he just hasn’t found his niché yet. He not a high-volume shooter or a top-notch passer. He’s not a zone entry wizard (which I think will come with time given his skill) or a forechecking menace. And he’s not a major power-play threat, either. Yet despite all of that, he drove play relative to his Rangers teammates from a shot attempt and expected goals perspective. The talent is obvious, and sooner or later, it’s going to click. The bright lights of the playoffs, which will shine much heavier on other Rangers to start these playoffs, could be the perfect moment for Lafrenière to flip the switch.
PIT: The Rangers lean heavily on their top-two lines for offense, which means it will take more than one defensive pair to stop them. Fortunately for the Penguins, they’ve thrived at picking defensemen off the scrap heap and turning them into top-four caliber players. It started with Justin Schultz, a forgotten face in Edmonton who was Pittsburgh’s No. 1 right-handed defenseman in their 2017 Cup run. Next it was acquiring Pettersson for a Daniel Sprong still trying to establish himself as a full-time NHLer. After him, enter John Marino, a 2015 6th round pick of Edmonton’s who became a near-instant fixture of Pittsburgh’s top-four in 2019-20 and was paid handsomely as a result.
But trading for Mike Matheson before the 2020-21 season was the biggest risk yet. All of the other additions were fairly low risk. Matheson came with a two-ton anchor strapped around him in the form of an eight-year, $39 million extension he signed with the Panthers in Oct. 7, 2017, one that didn’t kick in until the 2018-19 season. Matheson was always just a fine player in Florida, but never one worthy of such a hefty investment. Add in that he cost Pittsburgh aging fan-favorite Patric Hörnqvist in the deal, and it was easy to see how the trade could go wrong.
That is, um, not what’s happened so far. In fact, The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn’s model legitimately rates Matheson as an elite offensive defenseman. Yes, 31 points may not sound like much, but dig deeper. Matheson does have 11 goals, tied for 16th among d-men overall and tied for 8th when looking at just even-strength goals, of which Matheson also has eleven. Just two of his points haven’t come at even strength, as a matter of fact. And he’s also driving play thanks to being great at carrying the puck out of his zone. Matheson has been everything the Penguins could’ve hoped for and more. Now he just has to keep it up.
The Pick: The thought of picking the Penguins to miss the second round five straight years ago feels unwise. Sure, their stars are getting older, but they’re still stars. And they aren’t the only good or even great players on the team. It feels more likely than not Pittsburgh’s current core has at least one more deep run left in the tank. And given Malkin and Letang’s contract status, that may be a now or never proposition.
However, the Rangers are coming into this series playing their best hockey of the year. If this series was taking place in mid-March, you’re looking at Penguins in 5 or 6, no question. But the Rangers are starting to look like a team that can win for reasons other than Shesterkin standing on his head or their special teams propping them up. And I haven’t gotten into other key players like Ryan Strome, Jacob Trouba, or just how money-in-the-bank Kreider is at the net-front. As with just about every other playoff series in the East (save for perhaps Panthers-Capitals), this should be a very close, competitive series. The Penguins might be the better team on paper. But the Rangers have home-ice advantage. And with Penguins starting goalie Tristan Jarry uncertain to play at all in the series with a broken foot, I’ll ride the hot hand. Rangers in 7.
Oddly Specific Prediction: This is an idea I always borrow from one of the best hockey writers, The Athletic’s Sean McIndoe (aka Down Goes Brown). The idea is very self-explanatory: make a very specific and semi-random prediction for each series. The idea is his; the predictions are mine. I’m not sure if this happened in the regular season or not, but there’s no way this season ends without a goal involving Ryan Strome, Ryan Lindgren, and Ryan Reaves.
Yes, I’m aware Reaves and Strome aren’t on the same line. That’s why Lindgren is going to score it after one of the other Ryans passes to the other (probably Reaves to Strome) on a line change or at the end of a shift or some other scenario. I don’t really care what that is, but this is too perfect not to happen. They say the playoffs are where history is made, so let’s see some happen.
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All Advanced Stats are 5-on-5 unless otherwise stated and via Natural Stat Trick, Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones (subscribe to his Patreon here) and Moneypuck.com
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