2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1 Preview: Hurricanes vs. Bruins
When the NHL switched to its… “unique” division-centric playoff format in 2014, the argument was that it would do a better job of creating rivalry matchups early in the playoffs. That you would get to see teams that truly hate each, and have for decades other go at each other for four to seven games in Round 1 or 2 just about every single year. That teams who would meet in the playoffs one year would be more likely to see each other early in the next year. And sure enough, that’s just what’s happened between noted bitter rivals *checks notes* Boston and Carolina.
An NHL plan going awry is hardly a surprise. Nor is seeing these two teams back in the playoffs; Carolina for the fourth straight year, Boston for the sixth, and 13th in the last 15 seasons. Of course, we didn’t know that they were going to play each other officially until the final day of the regular season. Carolina had to hold off the Rangers to secure its second straight division title (the one-off Central last year, the Metropolitan this season). Boston came very close to jumping Tampa Bay and producing a giddying matchup (if that’s even a word) against their playoff punching bag in Toronto.
Instead, they’ll get their second most bruised playoff punching bag in the Hurricanes. Few expected the young Bunch of Jerks in 2019 to even reach the Eastern Conference Final; it wasn’t that much of a disappointment to see them thoroughly taken to task by the veteran Bruins. Things were supposed to be quite a bit closer when they played in Round 1 in 2020, however. They were, sort of. But the Bruins ultimately prevailed in five games and were largely in control of the series after taking Game 1 in double OT. Both teams suffered frustrating Round 2 exits a season ago and are hungry for revenge. But only one of them will get the chance to see it through.
Carolina Hurricanes (54-20-8, No. 1 Metro) vs. Boston Bruins (51-26-5, No. 4 Atlantic/No. 1 East Wild Card)
Recent History: Quite a bit, as I alluded to in the intro. The Bruins and Hurricanes have met twice in the last three playoffs, with Boston winning eight of the nine contests. I’ll ask Bruins fans if that makes up for Carolina kicking them out of the 2009 playoffs in Round 2 on Scott Walker’s Game 7 overtime winner.
Season Series: The Hurricanes wiped the floor with the Bruins, winning all three meetings by a combined 16-1 margin. Did I mention two of those games were in Boston?
The Last Time Here: Both teams advanced past the first round last year. Boston took care of business even as the lower seed against Washington. After losing Game 1 in OT, the Bruins took the next four in convincing fashion, holding a dominant 58.4% expected goals share. Carolina was given a surprisingly tough time by Nashville, dropping Games 3 and 4 in extra hockey to even the series. But the Canes, who also drove play in Round 1, rallied late in Games 5 and 6 before winning both in overtime.
Carolina Wins Because: Thanks to a surprisingly great offseason, they’re incredibly well-rounded. I was among many people skeptical of Carolina’s direction after letting Dougie Hamilton go and making some questionable offseason moves. But the analytically inclined Canes had earned some benefit of the doubt before that summer. And they’ve certainly built up even more of it in the aftermath.
Of course, the guys driving the bus are largely the same ones as before. That’s Teuvo Teräväinen, Sebastian Aho (one of the league’s best playmakers) and budding, creative sniper Andrei Svechnikov up-front, with Jaccob Slavin starring on the backend. The Hurricanes are a great representation of what people don’t understand about analytics. And I say this as someone who is really only scrapping the tip of the iceberg with them. The same people who criticize Carolina for being “computer boys” would probably recommend playing more hard-nosed, dump-and-chase hockey.
Yet that’s exactly what the Hurricanes do. Only Ottawa and Vancouver have a larger percentage of uncontrolled zone entries. Yet because Carolina forechecks so well, from their top players down, they have emerged as one of the league’s top teams. That’s what analytics are really about, at least in my opinion: identifying what your team and players do well between the margins (or in hockey terms, between big events like goals or penalties) and maximize the advantage. Carolina has maximized that advantage incredibly well, and found some pretty talented players along the way. Those are the two tenets of roster construction. The Canes have nailed them both, even if some of the names they brought in last summer were a little alarming.
The Hurricanes play a style that’s as well-fitted to give the Bruins fits as any. Boston is outstanding at entry and in-zone defense, but only pretty good at breaking the puck out. Carolina is more than fine to dump the puck in and wreak havoc on the players trying to recover it; that’s their bread and butter. Defensively, the Canes only finished middle of the back in goals expected per 60. Though they did improve as the season went along. Carolina is excellent at defending their blue-line and at clearing the puck, just not with control. Maybe that’s something you can get away with against a fairly top-heavy Bruins team (although not as top-heavy as you think). But that might be a stretch.
Despite that issue, the Hurricanes still allowed the fewest goals against in the league this year. The big disparity between actual goals and expected goals against is due to two things. First, Carolina allows the fewest xG per 60 on the PK, where clearing without control is encouraged. Second, and more importantly, is goaltending. Here’s the bad news: Carolina’s starter Frederik Andersen, who finished second in the league in goals saved above expected, is likely out for the entire first round due to injury. It’s a significant blow to arguably Carolina’s most important player at hockey’s most important position, no doubt.
The good news is that backup Antti Raanta is back after a late-season injury scare of his own. He’s a capable goalie himself, stopping 3.7 goals above expected during the season. Game 1 of this series will be his first career playoff start. The good news is Carolina doesn’t need him to steal this series; just hold his own. The veteran Raanta should be plenty capable of that, and maybe even a little more.
Boston Wins Because: They’re the best defensive team in hockey, full stop. And it’s been that way all season. Every single month, when I’ve been putting together my massive spreadsheets to prepare for our power rankings, the Bruins have always led the expected goals against per 60 minutes together. Boston averages less than two expected goals against per 60 at 5-on-5. Them and the Wild (2.14) are on a different stratosphere than the rest of the league. And the Bruins are well above even Minnesota.
Boston has four of the top five defensemen in the league in fewest xGA per 60 and six in the top eleven. That doesn’t even include their big deadline splurge Hampus Lindholm. And they’re also phenomenal on the PK. Shutting down Carolina will be their toughest test yet, but it’s one the Bruins are well-equipped to handle. Every single member of Boston’s back-end has at least been to the conference finals. Four of their regular six blue-liners from their 2019 Finals run still around as well. It’s a unit built around Charlie McAvoy, an elite No. 1 talent who rivals Jaccob Slavin for a top-five spot among the league’s blue-liners. But this unit goes six players deep as well, with Matt Grzleyck, Brandon Carlo, and others contributing well to boot.
Having the best defensive center of his generation in Patrice Bergeron obviously helps as well; no forward in the entire NHL (min. 300 5-on-5 minutes) is on the ice for fewer expected goals against than Bergeron (1.54). His 69.19% expected goals share is over four percentage points than any other player and over five better than any other Bruin. If this is truly the end for the 36-year old pending UFA, he’s certainly going out with a bang.
That defensive prowess helps mitigate some of the uncertainty with their top two goaltenders having a combined zero games of playoff experience. Rookie Jeremy Swayman, a fast riser in Boston’s pipeline, is likely to start the series in net. Swayman got his feet wet with 10 NHL games last year and about a period of playoff mop-up duty. He’s hoping to follow goalies like Carter Hart and Thatcher Demko who impressed in the playoffs in their sophomore season. Swayman stopped 5.9 goals above expected, 19th in the NHL. He’s certainly not prime Tuukka Rask, at least not yet. But he could be, and if he struggles, Linus Ullmark is more than a solid contingency plan.
For the first time since they were formed in 2016-17, the Bruins are prepared to enter the playoffs with the Perfection Line split up. The second-line center market dried up at the deadline thanks to the Tomáš Hertl extension and Claude Giroux using his NMC to nix an offer from Boston. That means no real David Krejčí replacement. So the Bruins had to find a different way to avoid being a one-line team. Bruce Cassidy’s done that by putting Jake DeBrusk next to Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron, with David Pastrnak joining Taylor Hall and Erik Haula on the second line. It’s a move that splits up Boston’s four best players at attacking on the rush (Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak, and Hall, who are all elite at it).
Boston is about 50-50 in percentage entries that are controlled vs. uncontrolled, which puts them a bit below league average for the former. That’s not much of a surprise given the hard-nosed mandate the Bruins looked to fulfill in the offseason by bringing in Haula, Nick Foligno, and Tomas Nosek in free agency, hoping that would help make up for the loss of Krejci.
All three are among the top twenty in forwards at expected goal prevention. But only Haula’s truly had an excellent year. His 44 points are the second most of his career, behind only his 29-goal explosion in Vegas’ inaugural campaign. Foligno’s offense has dried up completely, and it doesn’t help that the trigger-happy Craig Smith is shooting just 8.6%, making this year just the second since 2013-14 he hasn’t scored at a 20-goal pace over 82 games. All of these players are capable of being helpful pieces in Boston’s run and have plenty of playoff experience too. Finding a way to get more out of them is key for Bruce Cassidy moving forward.
Players to Watch:
CAR: Tony DeAngelo’s first taste of playoff hockey came in the bubble against Carolina, and it went very, very poorly. Six games after that (and into the 2020-21 season), his Rangers career ended, putting his NHL future very much in doubt. The major red flags surrounding DeAngelo led to one of the league’s better offensive defensemen in 2018-19 and 2019-20 signing just a 1-year, $1 million deal with Carolina over the offseason. Surely the fun-loving Canes couldn’t expect DeAngelo to step in and replace Dougie Hamilton, could they?
Well, the answer is sort of no; DeAngelo’s fourth among Carolina blue-liners in ice-time, and while Hamilton was third last year, he averaged more than three extra minutes a game compared to DeAngelo. But DeAngelo has kept his head down and delivered the best season of his NHL career. He just missed a career-high in points despite missing 18 games. He’s the quarterback of a very solid Carolina power-play (22%, 13th in the NHL, and 8th in expected goals for per 60 on the PP). You certainly don’t have to like DeAngelo, but he has played some good hockey this season. We’ll see if he can sustain it.
BOS: When the Bruins put Jake DeBrusk on the top line with Marchand and Bergeron, most people thought it was just trying to showcase DeBrusk to potential trade partners. The 2015 1st round pick wasn’t playing well and had become disgruntled enough to officially ask for a trade. The Bruins seemed happy to oblige; a young, two-time 40-point scorer who plays with an edge should certainly have some trade value. It seemed best for both teams to move on. And putting DeBrusk on the top line was supposed to entice potential buyers to pony up for him.
Instead, something better happened: DeBrusk found his game again. Granted, that’s a lot easier to do alongside two of the best players in the league. But the Bruins wouldn’t have stuck with DeBrusk there if he wasn’t playing legitimately well himself. After shooting just 5.4% last year, regression to the mean has helped DeBrusk hit the 25-goal plateau for the second time in his career. He’s done by both being a strong forechecker and more than capable of carrying the puck in with control. After losing confidence in his shot last year, DeBrusk has his swagger back. And it’s helped him drive play even relative to his strong Bruins teammates. In his first two NHL seasons, when his stock was at its highest, DeBrusk scored 10 goals and 19 points in 36 playoff games. He seems poised for a productive playoff run in 2022.
The Pick: Rarely does the first round of the NHL playoffs go by without a major upset or two. The Hurricanes should know this as well as anyone; they were on the right side of the infamous 2019 playoffs where every single wild card took down the division winner they faced. Most of the pieces from that team are still here. And most of the new additions (DeAngelo, Andersen, Vincent Trocheck, Nino Niederreiter) have fit like a glove. The Hurricanes clearly have confidence in themselves, a testament to both the strong roster constructed by GM Don Waddell and the great coaching of Rod Brind’Amour.
I’m just not sure if I share that same confidence. Don’t get me wrong, the Hurricanes are undoubtedly a good team, capable of going on a deep playoff run. But I feel like their regular season record oversells them just a little bit; at least considering the state they’ll be to start the playoffs without Andersen. Maybe that’s for the best, given Andersen’s playoff nightmares at TD Garden from his Maple Leafs days. The Hurricanes do a lot of things well; they wouldn’t be here if they didn’t.
But so do the Bruins, and they’ve been doing them right for a long, long time. They too have had tremendous success integrating new pieces (Ullmark and Swayman in goal, Hall up-front, Lindholm on defense). This series is essentially a coin-flip for me. So I’ll side with the team I feel a bit safer siding with, one that has fewer moving parts to it and feeling the pressure for one last deep run as their core starts to age. Carolina is very good, but there’s just too many question marks, from some uncertainty on defense to Andersen’s status, to side with them against such a battle-tested opponent. Boston in 6.
Oddly Specific Prediction: This is an idea I always borrow from one of the best hockey writers, The Athletic’s Sean McIndoe (aka Down Goes Brown). The idea is very self-explanatory: make a very specific and semi-random prediction for each series. The idea is “stolen”; the predictions themselves are not. At one of the Bruins home games this series, we’re going to see Tuukka Rask or have him interviewed on the broadcast or something along those lines. In that game, the Bruins are pitching a shutout. That should officially end the cries that Rask could never clutch up in playoff time, right?
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All Advanced Stats are 5-on-5 unless otherwise stated and via Natural Stat Trick, Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones (subscribe to his Patreon here) and Moneypuck.com
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