2022 MLB Division Preview: National League Central
The National League Central should be competitive among the top three teams in the division this year: The Brewers, the Cubs, and the Cardinals. The Pittsburgh Pirates are continuing their rebuild, and the Cincinnati Reds completely tore down what they had. Milwaukee is the favorite this year, but can we count out the Cardinals and Cubs? Below is our full NL Central Preview, in order of which I believe they’ll finish in their division this season.
First Place: Milwaukee Brewers (last year: first place)
Milwaukee will once again start the season with one of the best rotations in baseball. Three 2021 All-Stars in Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta. The bullpen will also be a force in 2022, featuring Devin Williams and arguably the best reliever in the game, Josh Hader.
The Team: The problem in Milwaukee will once again be their offense. They scored six runs in the entire 4 games of the Divisional Series last year. Not great. The Brewers addressed their offense during the off-season when they traded Jackie Bradley Jr. for Hunter Renfroe. Renfroe had a great season in Boston last year, and should help provide for a team whose most productive hitter heading into this year is Willy Adames. Milwaukee had a fourth-worst team batting average last year at .233, and let their most productive hitter leave in Avisail Garcia (.262, 86 RBIs) during free agency. In addition to Garcia, Milwaukee also lost LHP Brett Anderson, All-Star 3B Eduardo Escobar, and 1B Daniel Vogelbach. Milwaukee signed free agent Andrew McCutchen, who is expected to primarily DH and play the outfield. They also signed RHP J.C. Mejia, INF Mike Brosseau, and C Pedro Severino. The Brewers are a good team. They have some of if not the best pitching in baseball. For them to not only make but advance deep into the playoffs, their hitting has to improve. It won’t be easy to replace the numbers left behind by Garcia and Escobar, but it’s not impossible. If the overall offense improves, or even if Christian Yelich just reverts somewhat back to his MVP self, the division is Milwaukee’s.
Fangraphs Projection: 88-74
My Prediction: 90-72
Second Place: St. Louis Cardinals (last year: 2nd place)
Last year on August 10th, St. Louis was 8.5 games out of a wildcard spot. They would end up winning 17-straight games and made the playoffs as the second wild card team before ultimately falling to the Dodgers. While St. Louis had underperformed up until that point, we saw just how dangerous of a team they can be. The .840 winning percentage from September 8th until the end of the regular season was the best in baseball. St. Louis also showcased superb defense last year, and with a few steady improvements during the offseason, I think they could give Milwaukee more trouble than people realize.
The Team: St. Louis will be bringing back most of the players from last year, with a few additions. The always dangerous tandem of 3B Nolan Arenado and 1B Paul Goldschmidt should solidify the Cardinals with one of the best middles of the lineups in baseball. The two combined for 65 home runs and 204 runs batted in during 2021. Along with these two, Tyler O’Neill emerged in his fourth year in the league hitting 34 home runs and posting a 6.3 WAR. Along with those three, the lineup will also again feature Tommy Edman, Harrison Bader, and Paul DeJong. It’s no surprise St. Louis will be one of the best defensive teams in baseball this year. The rotation needed to be addressed in the offseason, and the Cardinals signed free agent Steven Matz, to improve a rotation that was average last year. The Cardinals will be without two of their most important pitchers to start the season, as ace Jack Flaherty has a small tear and inflammation in his shoulder, while reliever Alex Reyes has a frayed labrum and is shut down for two weeks. New Head coach Oliver Marmol will be battling some adversity to start the season with these injuries, but St. Louis can do a lot of damage if they look how they did last September.
Fangraphs Projection: 82-82
My Prediction: 86-78
Third Place: Chicago Cubs (last year: Fourth Place)
Just a year ago the Cubs were playoff hopeful. Five years removed from their title in 2016, they still had a lot of the best players from that world series core, but ultimately decided to break it up by the 2022 trade deadline, knowing it was impossible they would resign all three of those players. They shipped off team favorites Kris Bryant, Javier Báez, and Anthony Rizzo which all but signaled for a full rebuild. But can we say the Cubs quietly built a competitive roster during the offseason? Not contenders by any means, but it’s certainly a competitive team, that won’t just offer up free wins to divisional opponents.
The Team: Aside from the three aforementioned players and Matt Duffy, Chicago didn’t lose much of anything else during the offseason. They improved their rotation by signing Wade Miley and Marcus Stroman. They also signed C Yan Gomes, INF Johnathan Villar, SS Andrelton Simmons, and touted rookie outfielder Seiya Suzuki. The Cubs I think improved a lot this offseason, while not spending too much outside of Stroman. A rotation featuring Wade Miley, Stroman, and Kyle Hendricks is a lot better than I think people realize. It’s not an elite rotation by any means, but there’s no reason why it shouldn’t play a huge role in determining the Cubs’ success this year. The Cubs may not light up the scoreboard and headlines this year, but by any means don’t brush them off yet.
Fangraphs Projection: 75-87
My Prediction: 80-82
Fourth Place: Cincinnatti Reds (last year: Third Place)
I do not understand the Cincinnati Reds organization. The Reds have begun a full rebuild after finishing 83-79 last season. They didn’t fully wave the flag, as they signed a few veterans, but nothing that will improve their roster at all from last year. But, they weren’t a bad roster at all I thought, and is it farfetched to say they weren’t too far off from being a playoff team? The additions should help the Reds along the way, but the losses are just too much for the team to be competitive this year I think.
The Team: Let’s start with who Cincy lost. The one that hurts most is Jessie Winker, who was a first-time All-Star last season. The Reds shipped both him and 3B Eugenio Suarez off to Seattle. They also traded RHP Sonny Gray to the Twins for 2021 First-rounder Chase Petty. Nick Castellanos wasn’t expected to sign back with his high price tag, and he’s gone to Philly. Amir Garrett had a down year in 2021 and ended up being traded to the Royals. The Reds, however, did improve an already good farm system with many of these trades. Their additions include LHP Mike Minor, OF Jake Fraley, OF Tommy Pham, RHP Hunter Strickland, and RHP Justin Dunn. The Reds’ 2017 1st round pick and current organization top prospect Hunter Greene is scheduled to make his MLB debut on April 10th in Atlanta. And judging from his highlights, his 102 MPH fastball should pair well with his slider and changeup. You have to feel for Cincinnati, as they find themselves in a full rebuild just two years removed from the playoffs.
Fangraphs Projections: 75-87
My prediction: 73-89
Fifth Place: Pittsburgh Pirates (Last year: Fifth Place)
The Pirates just can’t seem to get out of their own way. Expectations are not high in Pittsburgh yet again for a rebuild that has seemingly gone on forever. They did continue to stockpile young talent, and perhaps their window isn’t too far away, but it won’t come this year. They do have two top prospects waiting in Oneil Cruz, and Roansy Contreras. Cruz was expected to begin the season on the roster, but Pittsburgh optioned him days ago to manipulate service time, a cheap yet reoccurring move in major league baseball done to give the team another season of control for that player. Pittsburgh did sign a few veterans during the offseason which should help them along the way, but I would be shocked if the Pirates finish anywhere besides fifth in the division.
The Team: Pittsburgh added C Roberto Perez and SP Jose Quintana, both on one-year deals. They traded C Jacob Stallings, who had one year left of control, to the Miami Marlins for Zach Thompson and two other players. They also said goodbye to one of their longest-tenured players in Steven Brault, who signed with the Cubs. The Pirates will be counting on mostly Cole Tucker, their former top prospect, and Brian Reynolds. Along with them includes Mitch Keller and Ke’Bryan Hayes. The two have the opportunity to make themselves important pieces in the Pirates’ rebuild. The bottom line, the Pirates have a lot of young talent, and their time doesn’t seem all that far away. However, outside of their prospects, their team isn’t very good. They have been dangling Brian Reynolds as a trade piece, who has four years left of control. He would command a huge haul of talent for the Pirates. Whether the Pirates decide to keep him for the future or trade him for a king’s ransom, he is undoubtedly their best player.
Fangraphs Projection: 69-93
My prediction: 67-95
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