2021 NFL Win Totals: My Predictions and Favorite Bets
One of my favorite bets in sports is over/under win totals. They give you something to look forward to for the entirety of the season and keep you on your heels every week. With an additional regular-season game, I love some of these numbers. With that being said, here are my favorite bets in regards to the 2021 NFL Win Totals.
All odds were provided by VegasInsider.com.
2021 NFL Win Totals- #1- Buffalo Bills O/11 Wins
I mean, this is just free money. The Buffalo Bills won 13 games last season on their way to an AFC Championship appearance. The Bills are going to be a force to be reckoned with in the AFC as long as Josh Allen is their quarterback. And after signing a huge extension last week, Allen is not going anywhere.
The Bills lacked a consistent pass rush last season, so what did they do in the offseason? They went out and used two picks on rookie edge rushers, including first-round pick Greg Rousseau. We all know how special their offense is with Allen and Diggs, but if their defense ranks in the top half, this team is scary.
While their schedule has some tough matchups against the Bucs, Colts, and Chiefs, they play both the AFC and NFC South. Not to mention, they are kings of the AFC East. The Jets are awful, the Dolphins have a good roster but questionable QB play, and who knows when it comes to the Patriots’ new roster. With an extra game this season, taking the over is easily my favorite bet on the board.
2021 NFL Win Totals- #2- Carolina Panthers O/7.5 Wins
The Panthers are my sleeper team to make a Wild Card appearance. They traded for Sam Darnold, Matt Rhule is a competent head coach, and their offensive weapons are elite. As long as Sam Darnold can be an average quarterback, the Panthers should double their win total from 2020.
This offense has a chance to be special under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Christian McCaffrey is one of the leagues’ best running backs. D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Terrace Marshall make up a really underrated receiving core, and their offensive line is serviceable.
I have questions about the defense, but Jeremy Chinn, Derrick Brown, and Jaycee Horn are all studs. Like the Bills, the Panthers have a schedule that I really like. There might not be a better Week 1 opponent for a team with a lot of new pieces than the New York Jets. They also play the NFC East and the Houston Texans. Their division is still very top-heavy as the Bucs are a powerhouse, but the Saints are overrated and have a new QB, and the Falcons are going to stink. I think the Panthers get to nine wins and sneak into the playoffs.
2021 NFL Win Totals- #3- Dallas Cowboys U/9 Wins
Why does this happen every year with the Cowboys? They go into the season extremely hyped by the media, and then as always, they underperform in the regular season. With the Cowboys making an appearance on Hard Knocks, the hype has gotten out of control. Do people really think the Cowboys are going to win ten games in 2021? I don’t buy it.
Yes, they get Dak Prescott back and have elite offensive talent, but the offense has never been the question. Mike McCarthy may not be a good head coach but the hires he has made may be worse than his coaching. In his first year, he hired Mike Nolan as his DC only for him to get fired, and in his second year, he turns around and hires Dan Quinn. What are we doing? It is not like Dallas has elite defensive personnel either. What additions did they make besides rookie linebacker Micah Parsons?
Dak Prescott and the offense can put up all the stats in the world, but it won’t matter with such a poor defense. In addition to their lackluster defensive personnel, I don’t like their schedule. Yes, they play in the NFC East but mark my words, they will split with WFT and the Giants. They have tough matchups against the Bucs, Chiefs, and Chargers and a number of toss-up games between the Saints, Patriots, Vikings, and Cardinals. This has 8-9 written all over it. Take the under on the Cowboys.
2021 NFL Win Totals- #4- New York Jets U/6 Wins
Jets fans get ready for another disappointing season. Zach Wilson was the wrong pick, Robert Saleh enters his first year as head coach, and their division is brutal. The AFC East headlines some of the best defensive minds in football and some really good rosters. Usually, I would say that every team will win one division game, but I could very easily see the Jets going 0-6 in the division.
Looking at their schedule, I see four, maybe five wins in total. Bengals, the Falcons, Texans, Jaguars, and the Eagles are the only games I could see them competing in, let alone winning. They also have a brutal ending to their season that includes the Bills, Bucs, Saints, and Dolphins. You are better off betting on the Jets to get the number one pick than to win more than six games.
