For the first time in a decade, the New England Patriots will be playing on 2020 NFL Wildcard weekend as they host the Mike Vrabel-led Tennessee Titans. The Patriots crawled towards the finish line of a 12-4 season by losing their final game at home to the 5-11 Miami Dolphins. The Titans finished their season at a strong 9-7 after demolishing the Houston Texans’ second-stringers in Week 17.
This game has the makings of a Saturday night upset. The most interesting part is that it likely would not feel like an upset at all. At almost every level on both sides of the ball, Tennessee is either on par with or superior to New England. The early line for this game is New England -4.5. Respect for the Patriots is the only reason for why this line is not limited to the traditional -3 home team favorite. Let’s take a look at what both teams need to do to move past the Wildcard round.
Tennessee at New England (NE -4.5): Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 8:15 pm ET (NBC)
How the Patriots Win
Blitz
The Tennessee Titans are building their success this season off play-action. This has been working because Derrick Henry has been running the ball incredibly well dating back to the end of last season. Coupling this with Ryan Tannehill’s ability to extend plays with his feet has vaulted Tennessee’s offensive creativity.
New England has done a good job of applying pressure to the quarterback without having to rush more than 4 players all season. They cannot bank on that strategy against the Titans. Blitzing frequently will burden Henry and provide added pressure to Tannehill, who is still prone to making mistakes.
Gilmore > Brown
CB Stephon Gilmore will likely be shadowing star receiver A.J. Brown all game. Part of Tannehill’s success with improvisation has been a result of Brown’s rookie explosion. The stud receiver has been able to reel in a number of Tannehill’s lobs while also creating off the catch-and-run.
Gilmore, however, is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and will give Brown a hard time all day. The Titans’ primary receiver struggled against Marshon Lattimore’s man coverage last week and could be in for similar treatment in Foxborough. Removing this option from Tannehill’s arsenal would force guys like Tajae Sharpe and Corey Davis to earn their team a win.
Run the ball
They did it last year during their playoff run. New England has to trust Sony Michel to carry their offense. Tennessee is feisty on defense and will surely bring pressure all day against Tom Brady. If the Patriots become one-dimensional, the Titans will feast off sacks and interceptions.
The Patriots constructed a deep backfield precisely for January football. Bill Belichick may have wanted to hold back on unleashing those horses for the past 17 weeks, but now it’s time. Either New England succeeded in constructing a sturdy backfield to carry the team or they didn’t. We will need to find out on Saturday.
How the Titans Win
Ditch the play-action under center
Vrabel and Belichick know each other well. They will both enter Saturday’s Wild Card game fully researched and with clear expectations. Mike needs to flip the script completely on Bill in order to win. The extended play-action plays that start with a snap under center are dangerous. The Patriots will be bringing pressure and Tannehill cannot afford to expose his back to that front for too long.
The play-action is important, but it should be conducted either off shotgun or with fake toss plays if the under-center snap is essential. Tannehill needs to get the ball out quickly and securely to his receivers. It will take just one sack-fumble or a batted pass leading to a pick to turn this game in New England’s favor.
Feature Dion Lewis
Beyond just the coaches, there are so many players on both of these teams with ties to the opposing franchise. Dion Lewis is one of them. Given how well Derrick Henry has played, Lewis’ role has been heavily diminished this season. That needs to change on Saturday.
Dion Lewis has the ability to play receiver almost as well, if not better, than running back. The Titans need to feature Lewis in the backfield either as a decoy, a stretch runner, or in the slot as a receiving threat. The Patriots love man coverage. If the Titans line up four-receiver packages with Lewis in the slot, a linebacker will inevitably take on the role of covering the speedy back. That is a huge recipe for big plays by the Titans.
Blitz
I could just copy and paste what I wrote under this same section for the Patriots. The Titans need to be aggressive on defense in order to win this football game. There is no reason to avoid loading up the box and challenging New England to beat them through the air.
The Patriots have struggled against the blitz all season and there is no reason to believe that the Titans cannot frustrate Brady in the same way that the Dolphins did in Week 17. They may not need to score on defense to win, but Tennessee will need to notch a few sacks and register at least a turnover to advance to the Divisional round.
Prediction: Tennessee 14 New England 17
This is going to be a fun, old-school wild card game and I’m excited for it. I see messy offenses and tons of defensive play-making. It will come down to a field goal at the end either in the 4th quarter or OT. You’re almost there Tennessee, but not quite this year.
