For the second time in the past three years, the Buffalo Bills will be participating in the 2020 NFL Wildcard round as they visit the division-winning Houston Texans. Both teams finished the regular season with a record of 10-6 and head into Saturday’s early game well-rested after playing mainly backup players in their respective Week 17 contests.
This game could not feature two more distinct teams. Sean McDermott ushered in a culture change in Buffalo. He follows a no non-sense approach and leads an old school team into Houston with the focus on playing great defense and managing the clock offensively. On the other side, Bill O’Brien is no stranger to the Wildcard round and will lead a team that is placing control of their destiny in the hands of their franchise QB, Deshaun Watson.
The early line for this game favors Houston -2.5. This line is an indication of how tight a game this should be with the Texans not even earning the full 3-point home dog advantage. Let’s take a look at what both teams need to do to move past the Wildcard round.
Buffalo at Houston (HOU -2.5): Saturday, January 4th, 2020 – 4:35 pm ET (ESPN/ABC)
How the Texans Win
Establish the run
Believe it or not, Carlos Hyde has had the best production of his seven-year career with the Houston Texans this season. He set career-highs in carries and yards. It doesn’t feel that way because the focus on offense is always Watson. If Houston decides to take on the Bills’ third-best total defense by not continuing Hyde’s heavy workload, they are setting up their QB for a long day.
Buffalo does an excellent job of taking away the number one receiving option for most offenses. This is thanks to the outstanding efforts of star cornerback Tre’Davious White, who has not allowed a TD all season while recording a career-high six interceptions. Establishing the run will force the rest of Buffalo’s defense, including White, to press the line. This would open up the top of the defense for big plays by the Texans.
A WR other than DeAndre Hopkins has to have a big game
As mentioned above, Hopkins is going to have a tough matchup with White in coverage. The rest of the Bills’ secondary is no joke with the team ranking 4th in total passing defense. Establishing the run can only go so far in leading the Texans to a win. Somebody from the receiving corps has to step up as another option for Watson. Will Fuller is nursing a groin injury and was limited in practice this week. Third option Kenny Stills is also listed as questionable heading into Saturday’s game.
While Darren Fells has been a serviceable option for Watson in the red zone, getting to the Bills’ twenty-yard line is going to be the problem. Bill O’Brien and offensive coordinator Tim Kelly will have made a grave mistake if they walk on the field on Saturday without creative packages to help their receivers get open. When the talent is not all there, the onus falls on the coaches to get creative. If O’Brien fails, he may no get another shot next season.
Contain Buffalo’s running game
Buffalo has put together the 8th best running offense in the NFL this season. This is a product of a mobile quarterback who has amassed 510 rushing yards and an explosive rookie RB in Devin Singletary. Together they have combined for nearly 1300 yards and 9 touchdowns, all on the ground. Houston’s rush defense, on the other hand, ranks 8th worst in the league.
The return of J.J. Watt should help with both applying pressure to Josh Allen and contributing to stopping Devin Singletary. Without the other pieces on that Texans’ defense stepping up, however, Allen’s mobility will allow him to extend plays and burn Houston with his legs as he’s done to so many other teams this season. Romeo Crennel is an intelligent defensive coordinator. My guess is that he plans on pressuring Allen all day and forcing him to try to win the game with his arm.
How the Bills Win
Man Hopkins, zone everywhere else
There is no bigger threat to the Bills’ defense than DeAndre Hopkins. White has already proven that he can go up against the best of them and come out ahead. The Bills need to trust that their star CB can handle the one-on-one matchup, which will allow them to play zone with the rest of their defense.
With Hopkins neutralized, the only other real threat is Watson on the move. A zone defense will allow Buffalo to effectively combat the rest of Houston’s receiver or running back options while still being able to account for the mobile QB. If Houston can overcome this, then it means that either White failed to do something that he has done all year or that someone else on Houston’s offense had an unusually spectacular performance.
Play-action all day
Houston should be extremely aggressive on defense. There is no reason for them to respect Allen’s arm more than the Bills’ ground game. The emotions behind J.J. Watt’s return will contribute to a defense that will be thirsty for getting to the QB.
This all sets up perfectly for the Bills to come out of the gate establishing the run and then relying on play-action down the stretch. The energy and excitement behind Houston’s aggressive defense will quickly subdue into frustration if either Allen or Singletary continue to escape the reach of Watt, Mercilus, or anyone on that front seven. Deception is the best recipe for success against aggression. If Buffalo is smart, they will capitalize on Houston’s emotion.
Trust the small guys
The Bills feature the shortest receiving corps in the league. This has not stopped guys like John Brown and Cole Beasley from being productive contributors all year. The Houston Texans have the fourth-weakest pass defense in the league and struggle heavily in man coverage. Both Beasley and Brown could end the day with big games.
A second counter to Houston’s aggressive pursuit of Allen would be quick and short routes for Beasley and Brown. Getting these receivers the ball quickly near the line of scrimmage will spread out Houston’s defense. The second Houston transitions from man to zone, the aggressiveness of the front seven will subside. Early success with Brown and Beasley could be the biggest key to a Buffalo win on Wild Card Saturday.
Prediction: Buffalo 13 Houston 10
This result would technically be considered an upset because of how the teams are seeded, but I see Buffalo as a much more complete football team than Houston. Houston will be playing with emotion whereas Buffalo will play with a calculated approach. During an early Saturday game on Wild Card weekend, emotion loses to intellect.
