Robbie Ray is One of Many “One-Year-Wonders”
One of my favorite things about baseball fans is how fast they are to forget. We see tons of players go from never being anything exceptional, to having maybe a good season or two, and then teams break the bank for them. We saw an example of this before the lockout, where the Blue Jays paid Kevin Gausman $110 million for 5 years. Before his time in San Francisco, he stunk. Over the past few years, MLB teams also for some reason throw money at big-name relievers and starters after one good season. I just don’t understand it. Pitching in the MLB is a huge farce. You could be incredible for two years, hit a wall, and then never be the same again. Throwing money at starters isn’t nearly as bad as throwing money at relievers, but I still can’t help but shake my head when I see teams throwing 5+ year contracts at guys who haven’t shown they’re worth it. Robbie Ray is the latest example.
Robbie Ray is the latest of those players. Ray won the Cy-Young last year with the Toronto Blue Jays, beating out an injured Gerrit Cole, and Lance Lynn. I won’t discredit Ray’s 2021 campaign. A 2.84 earned run average along with 248 strikeouts in 193.1 innings is wildly impressive and was the reason he defeated both Cole and Lynn in the race.
Why Ray is a Big Regression Candidate
Despite this career year, Ray still has a career 4.00 earned run average. Not great. I don’t think he’s worth a 5-year investment if you’re the Mariners. I understand they’re making strides as a team, and are going to be in the playoff race this season, but I just don’t think Ray has more than maybe one good year there. Here’s why.
Ray had a great 2017 with the Diamondbacks. He pitched to a 2.89 earned run average and earned his first all-star appearance. However, he has always had trouble not walking batters for what seems to be his entire career. In 2019 he walked 84 batters alone. For reference, in 2019 Lance Lynn walked 59 batters. Ray was a big trade-deadline candidate in 2019. For a while, I really thought the Yankees were going to trade for him. I ultimately think they and many other teams decided not to for two big reasons: the aforementioned walk issues, and how when he gets hit around, he gets crushed around.
Advanced Stats Tell Us Ray Gets Hit Around
As baseball becomes more and more analytically driven, we get access to a lot more stats. One of the best websites to come into fruition is Baseball Savant. When looking at Ray’s 2021 season, it reveals a lot, especially in his percentile rankings:
This graphic allows us to see where Ray is great, good, average, and below average. His strikeout and whiff percentages are great, that’s no surprise with his wipeout slider. However, the stats that are colored blue raise more concern than anything else.
15th percentile for average exit velocity, 17th for hard-hit percentage, and 16th for barrel percentage. So what does this tell us? When Robbie Ray gets hit around, he gets crushed around. This doesn’t come as a surprise either, lets’s look at some of his worst starts this past season.
On July 21st against the Boston Red Sox, Ray lasted 5.0 innings, surrendered 5 hits, 4 earned runs. Three of those hits were home runs. May 16th against the Phillies, 5.2 innings, 7 hits, 4 earned runs, three home runs. Among the worst came in his last start against the Yankees on September 30th, a game the Blue Jays desperately needed to win but didn’t. He went 5.1 innings, 4 hits, 5 earned runs, and four home runs. He actually was dominating the Yankees that game for a while, but the Yankees homered three times in one inning to knock Ray out of the game. The consensus is that Robbie Ray is very susceptible to being hit around. Which I think should be alarming if you’re the Seattle Mariners. Teams don’t make contact every at-bat, but when they do, the ball goes far.
Time Will Tell With Robbie Ray
It will be interesting to see how Ray faires in his first year in Seattle. While the American League West Division was pretty weak hitting-wise over the years, the new additions of guys such as Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and the always offensive juggernaut Houston Astros could present Ray with a lot of challenges.
I’m relieved my team didn’t go after Robbie Ray, and you should be glad yours didn’t either. While he may have a successful one or two years in Seattle, I just cannot see him carrying his 2021 success over the next 5 seasons. And while Seattle was on the cusp of playoffs last year, they’re still not legitimate enough to be taken as a serious contender in my opinion, yet.
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