Why does the Lakers offense suck?
A common adage in the NBA is that stars win championships. If you can build a team around two or ideally three genuine stars, you’re at the very least in the hunt for the Larry O’Brien trophy. There are no guarantees, of course; winning a championship is exceedingly difficult.
If you can, though, get your tent-pole stars in place, the rest becomes so much easier. The Los Angeles Lakers have those foundation pieces in LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Why then, one notable exception aside, have they so consistently struggled in the LeBron era and this season in particular?
Yes, the Lakers have won a title since James came over from the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 2018-19 season, a triumph that came in utterly unrepeatable circumstances. Outside of that, though, the Lakers have a conference finals appearance in which they got swept, a dispiriting opening-round loss and two seasons in which they missed the playoffs altogether.
For this campaign, the Lakers sit 9th in the conference at the time of writing with a 23-23 and should the playoffs start tomorrow they would host a resurgent Utah Jazz in a single elimination knockout, then still have to win another game to make the playoffs proper.
So far this season, the Lakers are 19th in net rating, a figure propped up by their 13th-ranked defense. With the ball, the Lakers are 22nd in the NBA at 113.5 points per 100 possessions, and that number has actually gotten better since the turn of the year. If only their offense could make a few more buckets, that defensive ranking would likely slide into the top 10. The Lakers, with a league-average offense and a top 10 defense, are a lock to make the playoffs and would be a frightening opponent.
So why have the Lakers struggled on offense despite fielding two of the biggest names in the sport and a host of high-end role players or, at times, genuine 3rd stars?
Well, the primary answer is injuries. James, you may have heard, is no spring chicken and Davis has absolutely earned his “day-to-Davis” moniker. In their championship season, the pair appeared in 59 games together. In the three seasons since those numbers have plummeted to 27, 22 and 36, respectively. A large part of the “three-star” line of thinking is to mitigate against exactly this scenario. Of course, sometimes that 3rd star is well-past-his-prime Russell Westbrook, so… (shrugs).
This season, Davis and James have appeared in 39 of their 46 total games, far and away the best figure of their time together, so the availability argument is out the window. LeBron, despite his advancing years, is still a beast in the open floor and as such he looks to push the pace whenever he can. To that end, the Lakers play at the 7th highest pace in the league and are 2nd overall in the percentage of points scored in the fastbreak. They also rank 7th in free throw rate, propped up by a combination of James barrelling to the bucket on the break and Davis having his best offensive season in years in the paint. Their 2nd ranked percentage of points in the paint is a direct by-product of their fast-breaking tendencies.
The overarching answer lies in the Lakers’ inability to score in the half-court. The Lakers’ half-court offense betters only those of the Ja Morant-less Memphis Grizzlies, the Portland Trailblazers and the San Antonio Spurs. Yep, even the Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets and Jordan freaking Poole’s Washington Wizards can boast a better half-court offense than the pride of Tinsletown.
Why, though? What is it that is creating this malaise when the Lakers are slowed down? Again, Davis has been fantastic at both ends of the floor this season and James continues to raise his middle digit towards father time. What is it, though, that those two players need the most – have always needed – to be most successful? Shooting. Lots and lots of shooting–and that, dear reader, is something the Lakers severely lack.
The Lakers score 28.6 percent of their total points from behind the arc; dead last in the NBA. Of course, they take fewer threes as a percentage of total shots than every team bar the Detroit Pistons and, traditionally, it’s hard to make shots that you don’t take. Whilst they’re not a team exactly loaded with long-range snipers, the Lakers are not exactly brick layers, their 36 percent success rate from three is good for 17th in the NBA. By that logic, they could stand to take some more treys and theoretically open up some space for James and Davis to do their thing.
The problem, though, is personnel. Of the Lakers’ top eight players by minutes played, only three shoots above league average from beyond the arc: James, Taurean Prince and D’Angelo Russell. Whilst James has increasingly leaned on his jump shot as he ages, his best asset is still his ability to pressure the rim. The oft-maligned Russell is a willing and capable shooter – seven attempts per 36 minutes, connecting at 41.2% – but his lack of burst off the bounce makes him somewhat predictable as a scorer. He’s a good catch-and-shoot finisher but isn’t a great movement shooter. Prince is the definition of a one-trick pony.
Their other high-minute players (Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, Christian Wood, Cam Reddish) are not players who either actively look for the three, nor are they capable of making them on a consistent enough basis. Getting Gabe Vincent, who played the first four games of the season and just the one since, back in the line-up would help given his ability to shoot on the move, though a player sporting a career 33.5 percent clip from deep is hardly a panacea.
What options are available to coach Darvin Ham to solve this issue? Playing Reaves and Russell as the starting backcourt provides a shooting and playmaking boost, but leaves the Lakers defensively vulnerable at the point of attack. The trio of James, Davis and Christian Wood have averaged 131.2 points per 100 possessions when they share the floor but they barely have a positive net rating, as Wood’s defensive frailties and James having to defend down a position gives back whatever offensive gains are made.
Perhaps, then, it falls to the front office to find a solution. Rob Pelinka has grown into his office well and has made some astute moves over the past few seasons. The issue, though, is that he doesn’t have a lot of red-hot assets to move. Russell is a criminally underrated secondary playmaker and on a very moveable deal. Whilst moving him would likely help the defense, it takes away the club’s best shooter.
Hachimura and the lesser-used Max Christie hold some value around the league, but are unlikely to be enough for the Lakers to acquire a real difference-maker. It would take a huge offer for the team to move Reaves, whom they absolutely love. Atlanta Hawks guard Dejounte Murray has been mentioned ad nauseam as a potential addition. Reaves aside, it’s unlikely the Lakers have anyone who the Hawks would realistically want.
The Lakers do have the option of moving picks – the standard MO for any LeBron team – to pick up a high-end supporting player as a rental. Pelinka has 1st round picks in 2029 and 2030 available to him, as well as pick swaps in 2026, 2028, 2029 and potentially 2030. Would the rebuilding Pistons be amenable to moving Bojan Bogdanovic for more draft capital? Given they’re scrambling to avoid having the worst record in the history of the NBA, it seems unlikely.
Alec Burks or Joe Harris could be a different story. Do the Raptors continue their fire sale and move Gary Trent Jr.? Does Danny Ainge again tear down an over-performing group in Utah and move Kelly Olynyk or Simone Fontecchio? Does Evan Fournier still play basketball? There are options available.
Whilst the Lakers employ James and Davis, they’re obliged to go as hard and as often as possible at a title tilt. It is concerning, though, that the Lakers sit where they do despite benefiting from the unusual availability of their fragile superstars. A healthy James and Davis are a combination that nobody wants to face in a playoff setting. With a little help, they can make another run. But their current struggles and a ticking injury time bomb have many, this writer included, wondering if there is another run left in this group.
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