UFC Vegas 82: Best Bets
UFC Vegas 82 is a 14-fight event that is set to take place at the UFC Apex. The card is a fair Fight Night card with some interesting bouts. The problem is that it is not great from a betting perspective. Thankfully, there are a few spots that are worth wagering!
*All lines are taken from Draft Kings and are accurate as of 2:00 p.m. EST on Friday, Nov. 17.*
Michael Morales via KO/TKO +120:
The UFC Vegas 82 co-main event features a welterweight bout between Michael Morales and Jake Matthews. Morales is a -298 favorite white Matthews is a +240 underdog. I am not playing the money line. Instead, I’ll take Morales to win by knockout at +120.
Morales is an impressive welterweight prospect with great striking. On the feet, Morales has a great jab and a stinging right hand. Those weapons allow Morales to control the fight from a distance. In addition, he is highly athletic and can throw explosive attacks.
This bet is not a fade on Matthews. I do not think he is a bad fighter. I like his well-roundedness. In the UFC, he has shown solid boxing in the pocket with submission upside. The issue is the matchup; Morales will aggressively back Matthews down and land big shots.
I respect Morales’ power. If he is landing big shots, I think he gets a knockout. I also trust his cardio and believe his power will carry into the third round. That makes the knockout prop a bet that I like for UFC Vegas 82.
Payton Talbott via KO/TKO +100:
The UFC Vegas 82 main card features a bantamweight scrap between Payton Talbott and Nick Aguirre. Talbott is a massive -750 favorite while Aguirre is a +525 underdog. I like the favorite to win by knockout at a +100 price tag.
Talbott looked impressive in his bout on Dana White’s Contender Series. Now, he is making his UFC debut. Talbott is a very long striker who will use his boxing to pressure his opponents. The 25-year-old weaponizes cardio to punish opponents in the later rounds.
In this matchup, Talbott will have a massive striking advantage. On the other hand, he will need to defend Aguirre’s grappling. If Aguirre grapples heavily early, I doubt he will have the cardio to last three rounds. That will allow Talbott to tee off in the third round.
Talbott to win by knockout is one of my favorite bets for UFC Vegas 82. Talbott is a -750 favorite with a massive edge in striking and cardio. That is the type of fight that yields a knockout finish.
Myktybek Orolbai -142:
At UFC Vegas 82, Myktybek Orolbai will make his short-notice debut against Uros Medic. Orolbai is lined as a -142 favorite while Medic is a +120 favorite. I am laying the chalk with the favorite.
Orolbai has several traits that I like. To begin, he is well-rounded. On the regional scene, he showed powerful boxing and capable wrestling. In this matchup, he will likely be outmatched from a distance, but I think he will find a lot of success in the pocket. On top of that, he is a fighter who can land takedowns and rack up control time.
This is a risky bet since Orolabi is making his debut, but it will still make my UFC Vegas 82 bet slip.
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