UFC Vegas 76 Best Bets
UFC Vegas 76 is a 12-fight card filled with a handful of really interesting fights, but it’s not the best card if you are looking to place UFC bets. The card should teach us a lot of lessons that can be applied to future bets, though. For instance, the main event will provide a bevy of information on Abus Magomedov, but it is not a great fight to bet on. Nonetheless, I have found three of the best bets possible for UFC Vegas 76.
*All lines are taken from FanDuel and are accurate as of June 30, 2023, at 1:00 p.m.*
Grant Dawson -110
The UFC Vegas 76 co-main event features a bout between Grant Dawson and Damir Ismagulov that is currently lined at a pick ’em. I like Dawson in this fight.
Before we discuss the fight, credit to anyone that jumped on Dawson while he was an underdog. That line is far gone, but I still think Dawson is playable at the current line.
This bout will be determined by whether Dawson can get takedowns or not. That will be a challenge because Ismagulov has very good defensive grappling. I am optimistic that Dawson can find success, though.
Dawson commits to wrestling and is good at controlling position from the top. In this fight, when Dawson lands a takedown, he should be able to utilize a body triangle to keep the fight on the ground and win minutes.
Altogether, if he commits to wrestling and lands a few takedowns he should be able to win two rounds and get a decision victory. It will not even be necessary for Dawson to get takedowns at a high percentage since he commits them at such a high frequency.
It’s also worth noting that health issues forced Ismagulov into retirement. At UFC Vegas 76, he is making a return. On top of that, he came out of retirement to complete the last fight under his UFC contract. None of that makes me optimistic that Ismagulov will perform at his peak against Dawson.
Overall, the matchup makes me lean toward Dawson while the out-of-cage questions seem to favor him as well.
Melissa Gatto ITD +130
At UFC Vegas 76, Melissa Gatto sits as a -230 favorite while her opponent, Ariane Lipski, sits as a +184 underdog. I am not taking a money line bet here. Instead, I like Gatto to win inside the distance at +130.
Gatto is a more than capable finisher in the women’s flyweight division. She is a physically strong fighter who has power on her feet, lethal ground-and-pound and submission skills. This gives her opportunities to find a finish regardless of the realm the fight takes place.
This matchup should provide Gatto with a lot of finishing opportunities. On the ground, Lipski has a lot of flaws and has been finished on the ground before. In this bout, I expect Gatto to get on top and finish the fight. If it stays standing, Gatto has the power to knock Lipski out.
This is one of my favorite best at UFC Vegas 76. I think Gatto will have a lot of chances to finish Lipski. At +130, I like the value present as well.
Joanderson Brito via Submission +170
At UFC Vegas 76, Joanderson Brito is a massive betting favorite against Westin Wilson. At -1800, you can not responsibly play Brito on the moneyline. That said, I like Brito to win by submission at +170.
This is fairly simple. A large majority of the time, betting is hard, but not this time. Brito is a solid UFC fighter that finishes fights. On the flip side, Wilson is not a UFC-caliber fighter.
This fight has two reasonable outcomes. Brito either lands one massive shot and wins by knockout or he lands a takedown and chokes Wilson out. The result will be determined by what outcome Brito prefers.
With that in mind, I think the knockout and submission props should each be lined around +100. It is a coinflip on the outcome, meaning the implied probability is around 50%.
At +170, we are getting a ton of value on the Brito submission prop. Yes, there is a very strong possibility this fight ends in a knockout. Still, +170 is too much meat on the bone to ignore. I’ll gladly throw that on my slate of UFC Vegas 76 bets.
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