UFC Nashville Best Bets
The UFC is taking a 12-card to Nashville, Tennessee. The event is a high-quality fight night card with several fights that provide intrigue. Thankfully, the card has a few solid spots for betting as well. Let’s take a dive into UFC Nashville and take a look at four of the best bets you make during the event.
*All lines taken from DraftKings are accurate as of 12:00 p.m. on Friday, Aug. 4, 2023.*
Cory Sandhagen vs. Rob Font 03.5 Rounds -145
In the main event of UFC Nashville, Cory Sandhagen will fight Rob Font. Sandhagen is currently priced as a -345 favorite while Font carries a +275 underdog pricetag. I like the favorite to win, but I am unwilling to pay that price. Instead, I like the alternate total of over three-and-a-half rounds at -145.
I think the over can hit in this fight for several reasons. In this matchup, I think Sandhagen’s clearest paths to victory lead to a decision. I am expecting Sandhagen to utilize his movement to stay on the outside. This is beneficial as it will allow him to stay out of continued boxing exchanges. Additionally, I would not be surprised if Sandhagen looked to wrestle. In his most recent fights, Sandhagen has grappled more frequently and he has shown a lot of strong offensive improvements. If he grapples in this fight, the over will look good.
I am slightly concerned that Font could force this fight under. I respect Font’s power and he has the ability to finish fights. Furthermore, he has questionable durability. Font is interesting in that regard because he has never been knocked out in his career, but he has been hurt badly and dropped recently. I also do not love the fact that he has left his last three fights with massive damage to his eye. If Sandhagen lands one crisp elbow, he will make Font’s eye swollen.
Ultimately, I think the most probable finish in this fight is a doctor stoppage. I could see Sandhagen closing an eye that requires the doctor to stop the fight. Although, similar to Sandhagen’s fight against Song Yadong, that is more likely to happen in the later rounds. Therefore, the alternate total of over three-and-a-half rounds is more appealing than the standard four-and-a-half rounds mark. The value at -145 does not jump off the page. I am still willing to add the play to my UFC Nashville bet slip, however.
Tatiana Suarez ITD -150
In the co-main event of UFC Nashville, Tatiana Suarez is returning to strawweight to fight Jessica Andrade. The fight is currently lined with Saurez as a -375 favorite while Andrade is a +295 favorite. Once again, I am not willing to lay the chalk on the favorite. Instead, I will lay -150 on the favorite to get it done inside the distance.
In this bout, we have one fighter rising and another declining. Suarez is healthy and finally back to competing on a regular basis. That is a great thing considering she is an outstanding grappler with serious championship potential. Meanwhile, Andrade has been finished in consecutive losses to Yan Xionan and Erin Blachfield.
I did not like what I saw out of Andrade in her last two performances. Yes, she is a former champion and has a lot of solid skills–especially her powerful striking. That could hold true in this fight; however, once Suarez gets ahold of her the tide will turn. On the ground, Suarez should be able to control Andrade and get to dominant positions. That will allow her to either land a submission or ground and pound finish. Suarez has proven that she is willing and capable of finishing fights as well. In her six UFC victories, she has secured four finish wins.
I like the idea of playing Suarez instead of the distance. Personally, I think it is a strong way to bet on one of the biggest favorites from UFC Nashville at a -150 price tag.
Aleksa Camur +130
At UFC Nashville, Aleka Camur will share the octagon with Tanner Boser. The fight is lined relatively close as Boser sits as a -155 favorite while Camir is a +130 underdog. This will be my first underdog bet at UFC Nashville.
I really did not like what we saw from Boser in his light-heavyweight debut. After eight UFC fights at heavyweight, Boser dropped to light heavyweight and was knocked out in the first round by Ion Cutelaba. In that fight, it seemed like Boser was struggling in his new weight class. The speed was an issue and issue and he was not able to eat the power shots from Cutelaba.
On the flip side, Camur is a young fighter with solid potential. I like Camur’s boxing for the light heavyweight division. On the feet, he has a solid jab and a powerful straight. Those weapons can win minutes while dealing solid damage. If he connects with a hook, he has serious finish upside. Not to mention, he throws hard leg kicks.
I really like the progression we have seen from Camur. Despite losing his last fight against Nicolae Negumereanu we saw a lot of growth. It seemed like his striking was much more educated and he landed a ton of impressive shots. The only issue was that Negumereanu has the best chin in the division.
In this fight, I think Camur is getting better while Boser is struggling to adapt to a new weight class. That provides solid reasoning to bet on Camur at UFC Nashville.
Ode Osbourne +164
The final bet for UFC Nashville is another underdog. I like Ode Osbourne to get the job done against Asu Almabaev. As far as odds go, Osbourne is a +164 underdog while Almabaev is a -192 favorite.
In this fight, Almabaev is making his UFC debut. Personally, I am simply not sold on his skill set, yet. In his pre-UFC tape, Almabaev showed some solid grappling. In this fight, he will likely look to wrestle Osbourne. I am not convinced that he can accomplish that. While Osbourne is not an elite grappler, he is capable. On top of that, Osbourne should have a size advantage that will come in handy.
If this fight stays standing, Osbourne will have an advantage. Osbourne has quick kicks, solid hands, and a lot of power. Overall, I think he has a lot of finish upside on the feet. That is always a positive when betting on an underdog.
All in all, I would like to Almabaev prove himself at the UFC level. I would not be shocked to learn that he is a solid UFC fighter. Although, I will gladly test his skills against a proven UFC fighter that sits as a sizeable underdog. At +164, I have to add this bet to my UFC Nashville bet slip.
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